Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 6/13/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex crude is trading steady/lowerl…The US Dollar Index is higher (104.95) and the Dow Jones futures are 40-80 pts lower. Crude continuing to setback from a mostly negative EIA storage report yesterday (showing a 3.7 million bbl increase vs an expectation of 1 mil bbl decrease). The refinery run rates also dropped slightly as fuel demand remains questionable. The Fed Reserve also looks to be maintaining a continued tight stance with higher for longer rates still in the forecast. WTI crude futures seem to have found an equilibrium trading in the $75-$80 area. Fuel demand will be watched closely as we get into the main driving season, and inflation also remains a headwind for any sharp rises. Technically WTI July crude remains in a neutral sideways trend. Major resistance sets at the 76.74 area, a close above turns the overall trend to bullish. Major support rests at the 77.54 area, a close below could trigger more sell stop liquidation.

Early Nat Gas is trading 3-5 cents lower…The heat remains in the longer term forecast, however it’s looking as if most of the expected demand may already be posted in the futures. The inability for the July futures to breach the May 23rd high (3.161) may have placed a cap on futures at least for now. The news on the Mountain Valley Pipeline is promising as expectations that we should see some flows before end of week. The EIA storage number this morning is looking for a 72-78 BCF injection. ?The? five year average for this date is an 89 BCF injection. The number today could be a mover if we get outside of the expected range. The hot forecast should keep the buyers close on any large setbacks. Technically July Nat Gas remains in a bullish structure with major resistance at the 3.161 area. Near term support is the 2.682-279.7 area.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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