Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 5/9/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex crude is trading 30-60 cents higher… The US Dollar Index is higher (105.60) and the Dow Jones Futures are 30-50 pts lower. ?Crude trading a touch higher this AM as WTI futures rejecting the 100-day mov avg as EIA crude storage data countered the API’s build in crude. The EIA’s more reliable data showed an unexpected decline in crude storage (-1.4Mil bbls) which stalled the bearish sentiment (current crude storage stands at?14.6 mil bbls below the 5yr avg). Refining run rates have also increased showing that the drop in crude demand could be near a low with seasonal driving demand beginning. Still, the stronger US Dollar and building fuel supplies in gasoline will be watched closely by traders, it’s likely that the latest sell-off in crude was more technically chart motivated. A Ukrainian drone was said to have hit a Russian refinery chemical plant last night which again keeps the Geopolitical factor back in play, and while many analysts believe global crude consumption looks to have stalled, India is reporting oil consumption up over 6% from year ago levels. Technically WTI June crude remains in a near term bearish trend with major support at the 100 day mov avg (77.86). Resistance remains at the 81.25 area. A close above turns the near term trend back to the bulls.

Early Nat Gas is Trading steady/mixed…? Futures are still trying to solidify a bottom is in place even though there has been little cooperation from the fundamentals. Today's EIA storage data is looking for an 85-92 BCF injection, the five-year average for this date was an 81 BCF injection, therefore it most likely will take a storage number below 80 this morning to move prices much higher. As mentioned?before, summer temps will need to be elevated above normal beginning in early June if we are?to get the bulls to re-enter Nat Gas. Some news reports this morning that Russia may step up attacks on Ukraine after last night’s drone attacks which could affect Russian gas supplies to Europe, again a lot of what ifs there. Technically June Nat Gas has moved to a bullish structure with major resistance at the 100 day mov avg (2.24), a close above targets the 2.392 area. Near term support is the 2.077 area.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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