Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 5/2/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is Trading steady/higher…The US Dollar Index is lower (105.60) and the Dow Jones futures are 150-180 pts higher. Crude futures trying to regain some of the losses the past three trading sessions that took futures $5.00/bbl lower on higher storage numbers along with easing geopolitical tensions, and?lower cash diesel prices (US refinery run rates have continued to weaken?the past few weeks). ?The US & European MFG indexes have also stagnated. ?Heavy hedge fund selling was noted at front month Nymex futures breached below the 50-day mov average turning the near-term trend to bearish. There was some chatter that OPEC members stated another production cut is possible if prices fall significantly which is bringing some buyers back this morning. The Canadian Trans MTN Pipeline has also begun flows with?more oil from Canada. All in all, a correction in prices was needed as the market hunts equilibrium?with less of a Geopolitical effect (at least for now) than we have seen the past few weeks. Technically June WTI futures has moved to a bearish structure with major support at the 78.99 area. Resistance remains at the 50 day mov avg (81.07).

Early Nat Gas is trading 3-4 cents higher…Supplies remain ample, and the slight corrective rally this morning is more due to the evening up of positions before this morning’s EIA storage report which is expected to be in the 50-62 BCF injection range (the 5-year avg for this date is a 72 BCF injection). While LNG exports have picked up the past couple of weeks, we still had lower exports in April vs previous months. The only near-term positive remains the forecasted weather of higher temps across most of the eastern US along with some larger producers continuing to slow production. Technically June Nat Gas remains in a bearish/sideways structure. Major support rests at the 1.907 area. Major resistance remains at the 50 day mov avg (2.075)

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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