Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 5/10/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is trading 20-60 cents higher…The US Dollar Index is higher (105.30) and The Dow Jones Futures are 80-120 pts higher. Crude being supported by the EIA data this week showing tighter than expected supplies with refinery run rates ramping up for the coming driving season. The latest economic data (jobless claims) could also be backing the case for the Fed to ease interest rates which also would be a positive force to crude. The EIA reported they believe crude will still run a 1 mil bbl/day deficit thru 2024. While China has seen a slowdown in the MFG sector, their April crude imports were still over 5% above year ago levels. The latest sell-off may still be justified in that with all the war time action both in Ukraine and the Middle East, no real longer-term crude BBLS have been pulled from the global mkt. Although tensions in both areas still look to be elevated. Technically Nymex June WTI crude remains in a bearish structure with major support near the 100-day mov avg, a close below could accelerate hedge fund liquidation. Major resistance sets at the 81.30 area, a close above turns the overall trend back to bullish.

Early Nat Gas is trading 2-4 cents lower…The EIA storage number yesterday showed a 79 BCF injection which was on the low end of expectations, however it still pins storage at a 33.3% premium to the five-year average. Most of the longer term forecasted heat dome in the east has migrated westward which has eased some of the expected bullish demand. Some upticks in global LNG demand from Egypt and parts of Asia is supportive, however, the latest 40 cent rally may have over exaggerated the upside corrective phase. Still, the technical picture has turned bullish with June NG above both the 50- & 100-day moving averages. Resistance is the 2.344 area with support at the 2.238 area.?

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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