Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 4/29/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is Trading 30-80 cents lower…The US Dollar Index is steady (105.75) and the Dow Jones Futures are 20-80 pts higher. Crude under early pressure on news that talks are starting once again about a ceasefire in Gaza. That as well as US & European MFG index’s stagnating and India’s crude oil imports came in lower than expectations. Diesel demand in the US has also fallen which is in line seasonally, however it could also be pointing to a slower growth rate in the US as the higher for longer interest rates may be beginning to take effect. On the positive side Ukraine did strike another refinery over the weekend and global floating crude storage dropped 17% from last week. Rig counts also dropped to the lowest in five months. Most traders feel the cease fire talks in Gaza could gain some traction and given the heavy long positions from hedge funds it wouldn’t take much to trigger some long liquidation. Technically WTI June crude remains in a bullish structure with near term resistance at the 84.28 area. Major support rests at the 50 day mov avg (80.89).

Early Nat Gas is Trading 3-5 cents higher…futures still on a choppy path with not much upside in place. Nat Gas storage currently setting at a 37% premium to the five year average is keeping the sellers active on rallies. The major factor near term will be if LNG export facilities can stay active and the market will definitely need to see some June summer heat. Technically major support for June futures sets at the 1.907 area, a close below targets the 1.82 area. Resistance will be the 2.078 area. Producers should leave upside potential hedges for 2025 and 2026. Keep in mind the longer-term fix to low prices is near term lower prices.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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