Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 3/3/25

Good Morning...Early Nymex crude is trading .70-1.00?higher...The US Dollar Index is higher (103.60) and the Dow Jones futures are 180-220 pts higher. Crude futures trying to solidify a bottom with some new news that the expected oversupply of global crude that the EIA has been predicting may have been overstated as tighter supplies out of Venezuela and possibly Iran look to be more likely (Iran's president stated that he would not adhere to threats from the US).? The Trump Administrations on again/off again tariff situation has been rocking current markets, including demand fears for crude. However, after Fed Chairman Powell noted that the Fed would likely be staying the current course has eased some of the market fears.? Still, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine/Russia (Ukraine is currently on board) and if Russia agrees it will very likely include easing Russian oil sanctions to the global markets.??The API released its storage data yesterday that showed a large 4.27 mil bbl build to inventories which was larger than expected (termed mostly bearish) however, there was a larger than expected draw to gasoline. The more reliable EIA's storage data will be released later today to see if they agree to the large build. Technically WTI April crude remains in a bearish structure with near term support at the 65.22 area. Resistance will be the 68.22 area.?

Early Nat Gas is Trading 12-16 cents lower...Warmer temps are now back in the longer-range forecast with some models that had been predicting cooler turning warmer. US Nat Gas?production should also be coming back with higher prices. Production is back near the 106 BCF/day area and with warmer temps most traders feel a re-fill to storage should begin very soon. Still, current storage is 25% below a year ago and LNG exports continue strong, and Iraq is now in the market for LNG. Canadian tariffs on NG are still a wildcard and the uncertainty will exaggerate the volatility.? ?The EIA storage number for tomorrow is looking for a 78-82 BCF draw?(five year avg for this date is a -94 BCF draw). Technically April NG futures remain in a bullish structure with near term support at the 3.961 area. Resistance will be at the possible blow off top 4.901.?

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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