Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 3/3/25
BOK Financial - Energy Financial Services
Experienced bankers, engineers, derivative consultants & analysts provide a financial resource for the energy industry.
Good Morning...Early Nymex crude is trading 20-50 cents higher...The US Dollar Index is lower (106.84) and the Dow Jones Futures are 80-120 pts higher. Crude trading higher today on positive news out of China's manufacturing sector (best numbers in over 3 months). Geopolitical issues are also rising once again as Israel/Hamas cease fire ended this weekend and Israel has stopped humanitarian efforts to Gaza. A?major fuel refinery in Russia was also believed to be struck by a Ukranian drone.? That along with US crude inventories still well below historical 5-year averages is trying to hold WTI crude prices above the $70/bbl area. Still, Tariffs to Mexico and Canada are to begin tomorrow and the longer-term effects on crude demand remain cloudy. Technically April WTI crude remains in a bearish structure with major support at the 68.42?area. Resistance will be the 71.26?area. Only a close back above 71.88 turns the trend back to the bulls.
Early Nat Gas is trading 5-8 cents higher. A warming trend to the eastern US is the negative while the conflict meeting between President Trump and President Zelenski is being the near-term support for prices as a deal with Russia could?now be many months away. Keep in mind that Europe had been taking about 40% of its Nat Gas needs from Russia before the invasion and it looked like some of that supply might return if an agreement was reached. Current US Nat Gas storage sets at 11.5% below the five-year average, and while March is now upon us and warmer weather is near, the double-digit?deficit to the five-year average will likely keep a floor to prices near term.??Technically April NG remains in a bullish structure with support at the 3.742 area.? Near term resistance will be the 4.142 area.
Dennis Kissler
SVP/Trading Division
Commodity Risk Mgmt
BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)
Trade Desk 405.272.2026 Cell 405.203.8618
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