Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 2/27/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is Trading steady/higher… The US Dollar Index is lower (103.66) and the Dow Jones Futures are steady/lower…Crude trading back on the positive?this AM as futures remain in the upper $70/bbl area as stronger global demand is offsetting rising supplies. This?is versus the higher for longer interest rates and inflation that seems to not want to go away. While the war premiums are keeping a nervous trade, they have lost most their bullish luster as no real barrels have been taken off the market. The Biden Admin did comment that there could be a pause in the Israel/Hamas war due to the Holy month in March (still nothing is agreed upon yet). The Strategic Reserve is back in the market being a light buyer of approx. 3 mil bbls. All in all, elevated global demand especially in jet fuel has kept a solid bid under crude along with increasing crack spreads (refining profit margins) which more times than not keeps a demand pull on crude. US exports of diesel to Europe has also risen substantially which is a bullish force near term.

?Early Nat Gas is Trading steady/higher… The early rally yesterday seems to have faded. Near record warmth will be seen in most of the eastern US into the first week of March. Strong potential LNG demand remains?the only bullish card for?US prices. Near term Nat Gas storage remains near 22% above the five-year average which is a heavy weight for the market to bear. This?week's EIA storage number is looking for 80-92 BCF draw. The near term positive to futures is simply prices are looking very cheap at these levels and any type of positive news could rally prices 10-20% very easily. Technically April futures remain in a bearish structure and are trying to solidify a bottom. Support bands rest down at the 1.683-1.60 area, a breach below targets the 1.50 area. Near term resistance rests at the 1.877 area .?

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR) ?

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