Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 2/20/25

Good Morning…Early Nymex Crude is trading steady/higher…The US Dollar Index is lower (106.85) and the Dow Jones futures are 120-160 pts lower. Crude continues in a choppy trade as ideas extended tariffs will curb global demand versus extreme cold weather for most of the US Mid-section causing some of the Bakken oil production to be?stalled (est?of 150k bbls/day) and Russia stating that Monday’s attack by Ukraine on the Caspian pipeline has slowed exports in some regions by over 30%. ?Add in OPEC+ members stating further delays are likely in its April production increase and the crude price positives near term seem to be outweighing the negatives. The API did release its storage data late yesterday that showed a 3.34 mil bbl increase to storage (mostly within expectations). Also, the verbal conflicts between President Trump and President Zelensky could delay a Russian peace deal. Technically April?WTI crude has moved to a bullish structure now above both the 50- & 200-day moving averages. Near term resistance sets at the 73.33?area. Major trend support sets near the 71.47?area. March futures expire today, and the EIA storage number released later this morning will be the early price mover.

Early Nat Gas is Trading 12-16 cents lower…Severe cold weather brings prices up and warming trends takes prices right back down. The latest cold spell had over 130 mil people under wind chills in the single digits or lower. Current NG consumption is believed to be 21% above year ago levels for this week, with some analyst believing that number is closer to 30% above. The EIA storage number this morning is looking for a 187-193 BCF draw. The five-year average for this date is a 145 BCF draw. European NG storage is less than 45% of capacity (last year this date it?was over 67% of capacity) Therefore, US LNG demand should remain?elevated. March NG futures taking a setback in the early trade as future had moved to an “overbought” condition with warmer temps in the forecast. Near term support for March NG rests at the 3.947 area, then 3.641. Another possible "major key reversal" could be in play with heavy?resistance?at the 4.476 area. This morning's storage number will be the near-term price mover. We're hearing major freeze off production areas are shut in, however it could well be priced in the last two days move.

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

[email protected] | [email protected]

Trade Desk 405.272.2026 Cell 405.203.8618

Please call the trading desk for live pricing and option strategies.? 405.272.2026

Our team:

Dennis Kissler - [email protected]

Michael Kuta - [email protected]

Matt Morrissey - [email protected]

Chris Johnston- [email protected]

Katy Germani - [email protected]

Cristina Stellar - [email protected]

? BOK Financial. Services provided by BOKF, NA. Member FDIC.

This notification statement is provided in good faith and for general information purposes only. It is also subject to change. It is not intended to be relied upon by any party as the basis for making any trading, hedging or investment decision. Any valuations shown represent our current indicative valuation of the relevant commodities at the date shown for the sole purpose of determining collateral requirements. Valuations have been derived from our own methodology (which is subject to change) or we have sourced such valuations from third parties. Any valuations should not be relied on for any other purpose including valuing transactions for the purpose of your financial books and records. ? Any valuations in this statement do not represent the terms at which new transactions or instruments could be entered into nor unwound. Any valuations in this statement do not constitute an offer (or solicitation of any offer) by us, nor does it represent the price at which we would be willing to purchase, sell, enter into, assign, lend, borrow, close out or settle the relevant transaction or security (or any similar transaction or security). Want to change how you receive these emails? You can subscribe to this email

Our mailing address is:

BOK Financial

1 Williams Center

Tulsa, Ok 74172