Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 1/30/25
BOK Financial - Energy Financial Services
Experienced bankers, engineers, derivative consultants & analysts provide a financial resource for the energy industry.
Good Morning...Early Nymex Crude is trading steady/lower...The US Dollar Index is higher (107.97) and the Dow Jones Futures are 20-80 pts lower. Crude futures continue in a defensive posture defending the 200-day mov avg (72.12). The EIA reported a larger than expected build to crude storage (up 2.96 mil bbls). While the report was a near term negative, storage, especially in Cushing OK remains well below the five-year average.??The Trump Administration did make a comment that Mexico and Canada may not see harsh tariffs if they can slow immigration. Traders remain with a cautious attitude as direction for demand remains mixed, and Russian sanctions continue to constrain some supply chains in Asia. Technically March WTI futures have retraced back to the consolidation areas of early January with major support at the 200-day mov avg. A close below could trip further long liquidation "sell stops" and target the71.30 area. Trend line resistance sets at the 73.90 area.
Early Nymex Nat Gas is trading steady/lower...Weather patterns are mixed but remain much warmer than weeks past. European NG prices are rallying on ideas re-filing storage (after the latest cold spell)?may lag expectations, but it?is doing little to help Nymex Henry Hub prices. The EIA Nat Gas storage number for this morning is looking for a huge -300 to-325 BCF draw. The 5-year average for this date was a -189 BCF draw. NG futures remain in a premium (contango structure, front month futures below back month futures) which more times than not means near term supplies remain ample, even with large, expected?draw to storage. Traders remain focused on rising production (up 1.0 BCF/day from last week) and a warming trend to the larger populated areas of the US. Technically, March Nat Gas futures remain in a bullish structure with major support at the 3.071 area. Near term resistance sets at the 3.253 to 3.367 areas.?
Dennis Kissler
SVP/Trading Division
Commodity Risk Mgmt
BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)
Trade Desk 405.272.2026 Cell 405.203.8618
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