Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 12/9/24

Good morning?early Nymex crude is trading .70 to $1.00?higher ...The U.S. dollar index is lower (105.91) and the Dow Jones futures are 10 to 40 points higher. Crude futures getting a lift this morning?on news that?Syria's al-Assad regime has fallen which increases the geopolitical risk?for energy prices, which could ripple thru Russia and Iran who were allies of Assad's.?The US has also conducted more air strikes against ISIS in Syria. The geopolitical risk is taking front and center early this week being the positive to crude.?China is also?estimating they're going to have a more progressive monetary policy coming into 2025?which should mean?additional stimulus packages?being added (this will of course be monitored closely by traders).?Technically Nymex Jan crude remains in a sideways bearish structure with major trendline support at the 67.05 area. Major resistance will be the 50-day mov avg (69.84).?

Early Nymex Nat Gas is trading 8-11?cents higher...A slight change in the weather forecast to cooler in the east?along with added Geopolitical risk is triggering some short covering buying this morning. Front month January futures gapping higher triggering some light "buy stops" above the 50-day mov avg. While short covering weather rallies are to be expected when weather models change, it will likely take a major longer-term change to turn the true fundamentals to bullish as storage supplies remain very abundant (current storage is 7.8% above the five-year average).?Technically Jan NG future have "gapped" back above the 50-day mov avg which now targets the 3.30-3.40?area. Major support will rest back at the (3.22) area. A large "chart gap" is now present, and more times than not markets will try to back fill into chart gap area.?

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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