Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 1/16/25
BOK Financial - Energy Financial Services
Experienced bankers, engineers, derivative consultants & analysts provide a financial resource for the energy industry.
Good morning?early Nymex crude?is trading steady/lower?... The US dollar index is higher at 109.34, and the Dow Jones futures are 100 to 150 points lower. WTI futures trading up thru the July highs yesterday are seeing a slight set-back correction in the early trade today.? The EIA confirmed the API's drop?in US crude storage?levels, currently US crude storage is at the lowest level?in nearly three years,?inventories in Cushing OK?are approx?40% below?the five-year average. The strong U.S. stock market?along with more stringent Russian?oil (including?fuel)?restrictions, and the extreme cold weather across most of the US justifies the latest strength in crude. The front month WTI spread (Feb vs Mar) has moved to nearly $1.40 premium to front month Feb which more times than not shows strong demand is at hand near term. The Cease fire agreement with Hamas and Israel has done little to drop crude prices which is another factor that strong demand is present. Middle East cash crude prices are bringing?the largest premiums since early 2023. Still, at these levels many traders believe OPEC will be more likely to add bbls. Technically?WTI Feb crude remains in a bullish structure with near term resistance at the 80.77 area, a breach above targets the 82.50 area. Near term support rests at the 77.24 area.
Early Nat Gas is trading steady/higher...Cold temps in the longer-range forecast continues to attract the buyers. US demand has jumped up to 131 BCF/day from 127 BCF/day from last week, add in the EIA storage number today expected to be a large draw in the -240 to -280 BCF range and the latest strength in prices is justified. The five-year average for this date in storage was a?-128 BCF draw. Technically Feb NG remains in a bullish structure with overhead resistance at the 4.369 area. Support rests back at the 3.736-3.643 area. The storage number this morning will be the market mover!
Dennis Kissler
SVP/Trading Division
Commodity Risk Mgmt
BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)
Trade Desk 405.272.2026 Cell 405.203.8618
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