Crude/Nat Gas Morning Outlook 10/15/24

Good Morning…Early Nymex crude is trading 2.80-3.20 lower…The US Dollar Index is lower (103.10) and the Dow Jones futures are 100-150 pts lower…Crude under considerable pressure this morning on news that Israel will only target Iran’s military operations and not oil or nuclear structures. Therefore, the Geopolitical “war premium” that oil has been carrying is being largely depleted. As mentioned before, unless we see real Barrels being taking off the world market, crude prices will eventually gravitate towards supply/demand equilibrium. Given the weakening economic numbers in China,?near term, it will be a headwind for crude. Russia’s oil exports are also increasing to the highest levels since July after repairs and maintenance issues have been resolved. The EIA is also looking for crude inventories to expand again this week (2.6 mil bbls). Technically WTI Nov crude has moved to a bearish structure now below the 50-day mov avg (71.82) which will be a key resistance level. Near term support rests at the 67.94 area

Early Nat Gas is Trading steady/higher…Futures trying to correct higher from a slightly “oversold” condition. Weather forecasts are heating back up in the south which will pull some AC demand, however, this late in the year it will be lightly noted. The shoulder month of October with Nat gas still holding a 5+% premium to the five-year average with falling demand is keeping Nat Gas prices on the defensive. The EIA storage number this week is looking for a 65-88?BCF injection (the five-year average for this date was an 88 BCF injection). Technically?Nov NG remains in a bearish structure with major support at the contract low (2.439). A close below targets the 2.30 area. Major resistance will be the 50-day mov avg (2.670). Futures remain near an "oversold" condition and the Gulf of Mexico storm outlook remains elevated.

NOTE: I will be Traveling the next few days, and the Morning Outlook will resume on Friday Oct 18th

Dennis Kissler

SVP/Trading Division

Commodity Risk Mgmt

BOK Financial (OK,TX,CO,AZ,NM,MO,AR)

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