Crude Oil: Are you ready for triple digit oil prices?
- We are in a boom-bust cycle, with no end in sight, rather than a “new oil order” and shale oil will contribute to, not dampen it.
- Inventory levels are balanced today and forecast to remain below their 5-year average during 2018, supporting Brent spot prices at levels well above $60 Brent a barrel.
- The Saudis will continue tightening inventories until the oil price term structure returns to “contango”. Meanwhile, Venezuela's exports are about to collapse.
- Barring a global economic recession in this decade, we are in the early innings of new, demand-led bull market. And for all the talk of EVs, oil demand is soaring.
- We expect Brent to remain well above $70 a barrel in 2018 and then reach triple digits as global balances tighten significantly in 2019.
Principal at Critical Point
6 年Everyone I have read, researched, and know has missed the crude oil price prediction. This prediction will be no different. The bases presented are not strongly supportive of a rapid increase in price. The futures strip does not support a rapid increase in spot at this time - in fact is in the mid to upper $60's for the next 2 years. The financial firms that I communicate with think the price volatility will continue until the geo-political issues resolve. This may be never. It is nice for speculators to dream of the huge run up in crude price, but those of us in the industry fr a few decades know the value of patience and conservative planning for our businesses.
DPO
6 年Yeah before you think so,it will already be in triple.
Entrepreneur | Business Development and Sales | Small Business Advocate | Geologist
6 年Yeah.....I don’t think so.