Crude Oil Futures Today 11-18
Crude oil futures (CLZ22) closed sharply lower on Thursday to set the lowest daily close since late September. The daily is starting to reach slightly oversold conditions and, at first glance, a case could be made for an inverted head and shoulders pattern. That analysis is quite a stretch realistically. The weekly chart is forming a flagging pattern from the 2022 highs and has relieved oversold conditions and could easily be setting up for a new swing down.
Crude Oil Futures Weekly Nearby Contract
The DEC futures (CLZ22) closed under pivotal support on Thursday at 8250 and the next key area is 8021/7995 with support at 8087. A breakdown under 8087 could accelerate declines into the $80 level for support. A breakdown under 7795 sets up 7872 and opens counts to the current lows at 7588/7570. Under 7570 for the CLZ22 is bearish and minimally should see the 7240 level where the current 200-week moving average sits while opening much lower counts to critical support of 6658/6640 with long-term counts toward 6020.
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Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
The commitment of traders (COT) shows commercials continuing to amass long positions with those numbers now reaching similar levels as non-commercial. Open-interest declined with the last two days of selling in crude which has led some analysts to predict that prices will stabilize. As we have pointed out in previous technical updates, open-interest in crude futures has been declining all throughout 2022, reaching the lowest levels since 2014 and should be a unreliable indicator here. Price action itself should rule the day and potential bear flag on the weekly chart requires attention.
CLZ22 Daily H-L-C
Resistance short-term is at 8250 and 8281. A drive over 8281 can carry to 8381/8407. Closes over 8407 open counts to 8462 and pivotal short-term resistance at 8542/8552. Daily closes over 8552 will open counts to 8686 with potential to critical short-term resistance of 8820/8830. Closes in CLZ22 over 8830 suggest 8985/9000 with counts back into the 9250 level.
Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc?