Crowdsourcing democracy doesn't get my vote
I have written many times about how we carry supercomputers in our pocket, capable of making intricate calculations at a much faster speed than desktops a decade ago.
Furthermore, as we have repeatedly discussed, our smartphones can see and hear and, as applications such as Siri show us, are learning how we like to interact with the world and anticipate our needs, giving us a weather report when the alarm goes off, or the traffic report promptly at eight in the morning when we usually leave the house.
But there is something else these supercomputers could do: they could become polling stations in our pocket.
In these days of heated debates around how we transition to a post-EU governance, or what we should make of the rise of populist figures such as Donald Trump or nationalists like Marine le Pen, there are voices that start to favour polling the public a lot more frequently than every four years, or holding rare transcendental plebiscites. If the technology exists to enable an e-democracy, should we not embrace it? Would frequent public consultation lead to a fairer society?
Could it be that easy?
British Parliamentary democracy enables its adult citizens to elect an individual to represent them in Westminster. These lawmakers do a lot more than a viewing of Prime Minister's Questions might suggest. They hold regular meetings with their constituents and, when appropriate, raise their concerns in Parliament. In addition, they sit on committees and study drafts of laws, ensuring that these are enacted in the most effective and fairest way possible.
In the main, MPs are dedicated individuals who have opted for public service and take their work for the country seriously.
Drafting the laws of the land is a tedious, laborious and iterative process. It isn't decided in a pub with your mates, and it usually requires making choices. Adopting option A can mean shutting off option B, there isn't always a hybrid solution.
When the people voted for Brexit, they voted to limit the free movement of people from the EU. In doing so, they put an end to EU funding for economically underdeveloped areas such as Cornwall, and they put an end to EU farming subsidies. There was no question of giving up one, without giving up the other.
It has become fashionable to question the experts, but would you fly in an airplane that hasn't been made by aeronautical engineers? These days, when you can find out pretty much anything from a quick web search, you can probably get instructions for building an airplane and it might even be able to fly. But what if an airline decided to do away with experts and relied on search engines to solve engineering problems? My guess is that they wouldn't find many passengers willing to pay the fare, let alone pilots ready to enter the cockpit. Crowdsourcing an airline is a bad idea, crowdsourcing democracy might be too.
Even assuming you could create a fraud-free voting system that allowed every citizen to weigh in on every debate and have a direct influence on every law, would you really want to?
Let's for a minute assume that e-democracy exists. How does it work? It might be, for example, that your MP sends you a text at 10.30pm, just as you are about to order your last pint in the pub. Should she approve investment for a high-speed railway line between Leeds and Manchester? Oh, and if you approve that we can't afford to keep your local hospital open. What do you want her to do, she has to vote in 15 minutes.
Or perhaps we do away with MPs altogether, relying instead on a software programme in Whitehall to create laws by sending a text when it is faced with deciding between various options, or making a budget allocation.
As a citizen, it is tempting to approve spending for railways, hospitals and schools. But where would the funds come from? I suspect citizens – you and me – would struggle with this juggling act as much as MPs do.
Proponents of e-democracy suggest it would have a positive impact on voter apathy. Turnout among 18-24 year-olds was 36 per cent, while 83 per cent of those over 65 voted; but there is no guarantee that allowing young people to vote from their phones would increase their engagement with the democratic process. Those who are interested turn to the internet for information.
The EU referendum was notable for the scaremongering from both sides and its aftermath has laid bare the unpreparedness of the “leave" campaign for victory. One thing is for certain: were e-democracy to be a serious option, the public needs better access to the facts of a debate – and to the consequences of decisions taken. Otherwise if it becomes an X Factor-style popularity contest then the wisdom of crowds might show itself to be no better than the wisdom of clowns.
First published in Cambridge News: https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/mike-lynch/story-29589869-detail/story.html
20+ years Cyber Security, Software, CTO, VP Product, Investor, Founder, Engineer.
8 年Unfortunately much of politics in the UK and elsewhere has become a mere game of who can promise the most, without being called on it loudly enough as to discredit themselves before the vote. Issac Asimov said “Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" Part of me thinks if we are to have "mobile plebiscite" then the users ought to have to solve a CAPTCHA on basic economics, foreign policy, or whatever the matter is at-hand. Science fiction aside, there are enough challenges in merely enabling tamper-proof, cryptographically secure simple e-voting. There is huge upside from cheating, the opportunity, and low odds or cost of getting caught, shenanigans are likely to happen.
I think that there was something else at play in the referendum. According to several news articles, people on both sides, but mainly leave voters, later regretted their votes, somehow having been motivated by wanting to express their anti-EU feelings (paradoxically, expressed in secret), while not really wanting to leave. Perhaps the endless soliciting of opinion - from being asked to like a friend's Facebook post, to rating a book out of five before having a chance to reflect on it, to being asked whether the person serving in Comet was up to scratch - have led to a situation, in which people have forgotten that some kinds of votes actually have direct consequences. I bought a printer with the help of a very helpful man in Comet recently. I asked him a question to which he didn't know the answer, and he went and found out, and led me to the front of the queue afterwards. On the way out, there were big, physical buttons allowing me (and my 10-year-old son) to express our satisfaction. My son who, being a boy, is definitively puerile and bloody-minded, hit the worst scoring "frowny face" as we left. Perhaps we have just decided to leave the EU for similar reasons.
UX Lead, Research and Product Design
8 年If possible you would have to create a mobile application that sources and cross checks facts and statistics from the web on particular issues of the day. One that can be relied upon. Like a mobile non-partisan "Full Fact".