The Crocodile Comes Back to the Nest

November 19, 2017

In a special meeting on a Sunday, ZANU-PF sacked deposed Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe from his position as president and first secretary of the party. At the same meeting the party appointed Emmerson Mnangagwa as head of the party following a somewhat bizarre coup d’etat earlier in the week. Despite protestations to the contrary from the Zimbabwe Defence Force itself, it was in fact a coup, albeit a bizarre one. What in the world is going on here? A few things are certain about the "curious case of the coup that was not a coup." What happened last week was in fact:

·        A coup d’etat

·        Not a popular uprising

·        Not something done in the interests of the people of Zimbabwe

·        An act of self-preservation by and for military and political elites that, with the marginalization of all other opponents within ZANU-PF, realized and suddenly feared its privilege and position was in genuine jeopardy

·        Not a change for the people of Zimbabwe. The coup plotters will collude within ZANU-PF to attempt to continue the same system, just with themselves once again secure in their privilege and position

·        A coup, not a revolution

Zimbabweans protest against President Mugabe, Harare (November 18, 2017)

Mnangagwa, who just returned from South Africa where he sought refuge after Mugabe fired him on November 6, 2017, will assume the mantle of leadership in the very party which expelled him from its ranks on November 8, 2017. With the return of the Crocodile (a nickname earned for his political resilience back in the early 1960s), many questions have arisen, particularly from those who are not Zimbabwe watchers.

What of the new leader of ZANU-PF? For starters, he is very influential within the party. Therefore it is surprising the ZDF did not act when he was booted almost two weeks ago. They only acted after G40 and Grace Mugabe started eliminating Mnangagwa's “Team Lacoste,” after she had gotten rid of him. The problem for the ZDF leadership is that with so many already dismissed, marginalized or murdered within ZANU-PF, they almost have to turn to Mnangagwa. In essence Mnangagwa is a “known known,” as Rumsfeld was fond of saying.

He first joined ZAPU in 1962, only to leave it and become an early member of ZANU in 1963. Among ZANU-PF’s rapidly geriatric leadership, he is an original cadre with genuine “liberation credentials,” having fought in the bush war and served time in Ian Smith’s prisons. In January 1965, Mnangagwa was captured by Rhodesian security forces. He was later, tried, convicted and sentenced to ten years (vice a death sentence because he was under 21 years of age). He served 10 years in Rhodesian prisons.

After independence he served in one powerful post after another. The key positions which built up his personal influence include: Minister of State Security (1980-88), Minister of Justice and Legal Affairs (1989-2000), Minster of Defence (2009-13) and Vice President (2014-2017). He also played a key role in implementing the indigenization and black economic empowerment program, a wildly popular program among ZANU-PF political figures.

Mnangagwa was the "heir apparent" for ZANU and Mugabe. However, Mugabe's wife Grace, perhaps feeling her oats after the dismissal of Joice Mujuru in 2014 and making progress in marginalizing Mnangagwa and his "Team Lacoste" faction in 2017, overreached and got Mugabe to sack his longtime ally. There is more to this story, far more. But the Rubicon was crossed when in August Mnangagwa was nearly assassinated with poisoned ice cream. Team Lacoste blamed Grace Mugabe and her faction, Generation 40 ("G40"). The knives came out after that.

ZANU-PF has given the deposed party leader one last opportunity to exit with grace by resigning by November 20, 2017. The party leadership will reconvene on the next day and intend to impeach Mugabe if he has not resigned the office of president. What comes next is anyone’s guess, including ZANU-PF. Prior to the “coup that was not a coup,” elections were scheduled for next year. ZANU-PF would do well to hold those elections and also to reform itself and not intimidate opposition political parties. Free and fair elections would, however, lead to a cratering of support for ZANU-PF. The military and political elites who have engineered this past week’s events have little to gain from free and fair elections. Consequently, little is likely to change for average Zimbabweans unless, or until, they step up the pressure for change. Only then and only if the coup plotters can bring themselves to do the right thing and support the people of Zimbabwe, will genuine political change come. 

Robert Mugabe, General Josiah Tongogara and Emmerson Mnangagwa during the Rhodesian Bush War

Swapping Mnangagwa for Mugabe is no tangible change. This is “old wine in new bottles,” hardly a popular rising or people’s revolution. The Prague Spring is far less an apt comparison then the overthrow and execution of Nicolae Ceau?escu in the Romanian Revolution of 1989. In Romania the world was led to believe a popular uprising is what happened. In realty, as we later discovered, political elites orchestrated the entire thing.