Critical Review of Climate Danger

I know many of you who may read this post are earth scientists or other data driven professionals that have questioned the data validity of global warming advocacy group which I term here the “Global Warming Orthodox Religion (GWOR)”.?For me, I know I may be preaching to my choir, which is comforting, but in outreach they may sing to the world (apology for waxing philosophical).

A very interesting article just appeared from an Italian study “A critical assessment of extreme events trends on times of global warming”?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9

I have worked with may Italian engineers over the years and find them to be singularly logical and wonderful people.?I encourage you to give this article a look, but I summarize key results here (italics are direct quotes):

In the Abstract:

The analysis is then extended to some global response indicators of extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet. Of course, the inference is that such crises may never manifest at all.

To mollify their key statement the authors say, “It would be nevertheless extremely important to define mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account current trends.?However, if there ARE NO trends then what level of adaptive strategies should we adopt??The elimination of internal combustion engines by 2035 or other draconian sweeping environmental laws California has adopted which will surely ruin the lives of the middle class?

The Text

A detailed study on the correlation between vulnerability and wealth [9] concludes that “Results show a clear decreasing trend in both human and economic vulnerability, with global average mortality and economic loss rates that have dropped by 6.5 and nearly 5 times, respectively, from 1980–1989 to 2007–2016. We further show a clear negative correlation between vulnerability and wealth, which is strongest at the lowest income levels”.?Summary: Our lives have gotten much better in spite of GWOR dogma.

On Hurricanes:

The historic record of Atlantic hurricane frequency does not provide convincing evidence of a substantial long-term warming-induced increase…. The only proven and practical way to prevent loss of life and property damage is to introduce appropriate building standards and maintain a high level of vigilance for such phenomena.

On Tornados:

Charts can show an increase in tornados frequency but this is due to registering smaller tornadoes that went undetected by previous monitoring methods. ?NOAA says that at the moment it is not possible to give an answer and that more research is needed as these events occur on very small scales, which makes observations and modelling challenging.

For Extreme Precipitation:?

Our review shows that while an increase in total annual precipitation is observed on a global level, an increase in extreme precipitation is observed for a limited number of stations and with strong regional differences… In conclusion, although evidence of an increase in total annual precipitation is observed on a global level, this does not translate into an increase in intensity or frequency of floods. So, we may be getting more rain (a good thing) but there is no trend for extreme rain events.

On Droughts:?

The IPPC in its AR5 [6] reports on page 44 that “conclusions regarding global drought trends increasing since the 1970s are no longer supported” and several studies indeed show no increase in the main indices regarding global drought [56, 57]….. The conclusion of the authors is that since drought has not intensified and expanded during recent global warming, food security in the next few years is likely to remain at the level of the most recent decade.?Summary:?We seem to have more rain which is improving our food supply.

On Global Greening and Agriculture:?

Many of you may not know that increasing CO2 improves plant growth and the planet is becoming “green” due to fossil fuel emissions.?From this point of view, it can be said that global plant biomass has changed significantly in recent decades with a phenomenon known as global greening which indicates the significant increase in productivity of ecosystems (agricultural and natural) that in recent decades was mainly highlighted by satellite monitoring [63]….Food crop productivity has increased by about 30 – 47% in part due to the small amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere by fossil fuels.?Conversely, Mariani [73] estimated a 18% decrease in corn, rice, wheat and soybeans agricultural production in the event of a return of CO2 to pre-industrial levels.?

Final Take

Fundamental to GWOR is driving down energy access leading to a lower standard of living, especially for the middle class in the West. The poor are subsidized and the rich are insolated. ?But, as if this wasn't enough, the current GWOR seeks to cut beneficial CO2 from the atmosphere to decrease rain and stress plants so that food supplies become scarcer.?More is the folly for deliberately doing ridiculous carbon capture schemes where we squander more energy to sequester life giving CO2 underground.

The final statement from the venerable authors I’ve quoted here is, “We need to remind ourselves that addressing climate change is not an end in itself, and that climate change is not the only problem that the world is facing. The objective should be to improve human well-being in the twenty-first century, while protecting the environment as much as we can and it would be a nonsense not to do so.”