A critical moment to ratchet credibility

Welcome to Intent to Integrity, the Net Zero Tracker newsletter.?

In this edition, we present our fourth Net Zero Stocktake , revealing that the bridge to stopping climate change remains incomplete. While a growing number of net zero and other mitigation commitments from governments and the private sector form strong links in the bridge, too many are weak or missing entirely.

The 2024 Stocktake was unveiled for the first time at New York Climate Week, receiving coverage from more than 80 media outlets worldwide. We highlight ChatNetZero, the fact-checking (and soon-to-be anti-greenwashing) tool powered by the Tracker database, which is paving the way for the world’s first Center for AI-driven Integrity.

Meanwhile, our team of tracking volunteers grows stronger, two past and present Tracker members publish books, and our founder even drops the Tracker into conversation with King Charles.

Our annual report assessing net zero target-setting and integrity across more than 4,000 entities shows that regions, cities, and companies continue to adopt net zero targets, with increases of 28%, 8%, and 23%, respectively, since the Net Zero Stocktake 2023. But more than 40% (1,700 / 3,870) of major subnational governments and the world’s largest companies are operating without any kind of emissions reduction target.

Two years after the UN High-Level Expert Group outlined what credible net zero commitments should look like , essential elements are still absent from most targets, undermining the foundations for driving emission reductions. Only 5% or less of entities across companies, regions, and cities meet our minimum procedural criteria.?

Net zero integrity is taking root fastest among Race to Zero members; we find the fraction of corporate and subnational targets meeting minimum integrity criteria is higher among its members across all entity types.

This year’s Stocktake shows only modest increases in net zero target-setting by subnational (regional and city) governments. In general, national-level net zero targets serve as a ‘ceiling’ of ambition for regional governments, but some go above and beyond. For example, in India, 14 out of 20 regions with net zero targets aim for earlier dates than the national target of 2070. In the US, 19 states have set net zero targets, with five aiming for earlier years than the federal goal of 2050. In Mexico, despite the absence of a national net zero target, 11 of its 32 states have long-term goals, with three aiming for net zero.

The report calls for subnational governments to leverage whatever authority they have to establish clear net zero plans and back them up with policies. Improving vertical alignment between national and subnational governments is critical, especially in areas such as target-setting, coordination, and policy implementation.

Sybrig Smit , NewClimate Institute analyst, one of the report’s lead authors, says:

‘The powers of subnational governments, to establish and enforce regulations, in areas ranging from urban planning, to transport, to waste and health, are critical to smoothing the path to net zero.

‘If subnational powers are coupled with clear net zero commitments, it sends a clear signal to markets, and raises the ceiling of ambition at the national level, which in turn elevates global efforts.’

Stocktake 2024 underpins climate accountability discussions

The Stocktake catalysed many discussions at New York Climate Week, including at Activating ‘Ambition Loops’ to Reflect Reality, the event that we co-hosted with Goals House .?

Led by Professor Thomas Hale, co-lead of the Tracker, panellists included Lord Alok Sharma, COP26 - UN Climate Change Conference President; Jennifer Austin , of the High-Level Climate Champions Team; Vice Governor Sim?es de Almeida of Minas Gerais, Brazil; and Karin Svensson , Chief Sustainability Officer, Volvo Group .

Moderated by journalist Maeve Campbell , the audience enjoyed a wide-ranging, realistic discussion on real-world actions that governments and companies were executing on their way to net zero. We heard about the challenges and opportunities of moving quickly to implement targets.

We thank all of our panellists and everyone that attended.

More than 80 media outlets have reported on the findings so far, driving nearly 2.4 million estimated views. Media coverage included Reuters , New York Times , Agence France-Presse , Press Association , and UK radio station LBC .??

Thomas Hale, John Lang , Niklas H?hne and Angel Hsu, PhD spoke at several events in New York. John spoke about the Tracker’s impact at the Environment Defense Fund’s ‘Net Zero Data Boom’ and the Climate Champions’ ‘Collaborative Climate Data Summit’, where Angel also presented her latest project ‘Chat NDC’.?

Anti-greenwash innovation gathers pace

ChatNetZero —?created by Data Driven Envirolab (DDL) and Arboretica , and powered by the Net Zero Tracker — has been busy iterating since its launch at New York Climate Week 2023 . Incorporating feedback from its Beta phase and insights from experts such as the Association for Computational Linguistics , recent enhancements have improved its capacity to understand the nuances of net zero and to assess the credibility of decarbonisation plans more effectively.

This year’s Stocktake report has already been added to Chat Net Zero’s knowledge base, improving its ability to provide up-to-date responses to general questions related to net zero as well as specific corporate and government commitments. To further boost objectivity, a fine-tuned ethics module is under development, and DDL researchers are working on an anti-greenwashing algorithm.

On the back of Chat Net Zero’s success, DDL received a planning grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation to launch CLAIM: the Center for AI-driven Integrity and Mitigation . The Center will bring together interdisciplinary experts across government, academia, NGOs and industry to investigate the societal, regulatory and governance implications of generative AI as it relates to private sector climate pledges. CLAIM will rigorously test AI models to tackle greenwashing and misinformation, create metrics to assess the accuracy of AI on climate commitments, and explore the societal impacts of AI on corporate climate actions.

The people powering the Tracker

Our savants of scrutiny (aka Net Zero Tracker volunteers) continue to rally in numbers and expertise in our quest to hold the world’s largest entities to account for the climate. Now that our award-winning citizen science initiative has been expanded beyond the 英国牛津大学 , more than 200 student trackers from all corners of the world are contributing.

Among the countless examples of outstanding service to the Tracker, Dawn Sullivan, who is currently completing her MSc in Environmental Management and Sustainability, recently reached the ‘50 milestone.’

Dawn Sullivan said:

I can’t believe I’m already celebrating 50 entities since I started volunteering for NZT in September 2023. I’m pursuing a Master’s degree in Environmental Management and Sustainability, focusing on Sustainable Technological Systems. Through my studies, I am building a stronger understanding of the Earth system science that underpins climate goals, which has deepened my appreciation for NZT. NZT is integral to developing the credible, transparent net zero targets that we need to limit climate tipping risks. I’m proud of what we all accomplish together, keep up the great work, everyone! And happy tracking! ??

To find out more, visit our volunteer hub.

Come work with us!

Lastly, there’s a small window left to apply for the job of leading our volunteers, as the NZT Data Lead. This is an exciting opportunity to be at the heart of the NZT - providing crucial data for assessing net zero commitments around the world.?

Apply here , the closing date for applications is 11th October.?

Net Zero Tracker Events

Save the Date: Net Zero Tracker Side Event, 13 Nov, COP29

We’re co-hosting a side event at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on ‘Recognising Net Zero Ambition and Accelerating Progress,’ alongside the Under 2 Coalition / Climate Group on Wednesday 13th November, 18:30 - 20:00 local time.?

Catherine McKenna , Chair of the United Nations Expert Group on Net Zero will join the panel, as well as a range of other climate action experts. Watch this space and please save the date.

BusinessGreen Net Zero Festival, London, 23 October

On 23 October at 14:30 our communications and stakeholder lead, Nick Hay will speak at the BusinessGreen Net Zero Festival at London's Business Design Centre.

The session entitled, ‘Ratcheting net zero ambition, through more and better commitments,’ will highlight fresh insights from the Net Zero Stocktake.

Coming soon…

Professor Thomas Hale’s groundbreaking concept, ‘The Conveyor Belt’ of net zero governance, is being updated for a mainstream audience.

Stay tuned for our visual explainer, which will highlight the differences and dynamics between voluntary initiatives, orchestration efforts, international standards, and government regulations.?

We are excited to announce that we will soon be launching a new feature aimed at comparing various voluntary standards for net zero. This initiative is designed to reduce confusion around net zero, particularly what constitutes ‘good net zero’ practice across the private sector.

To start, we will compare the efforts of the following organisations and initiatives to identify areas of broad agreement as well as points of divergence:

• UN High-Level Expert Group
• ISO Net Zero Guidelines
• Race to Zero campaign criteria
• SBTi’s Corporate Net-Zero Standard
• NewClimate Institute’s Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor

Book club: Political technologies and clean energy technologies

Long Problems: Climate Change and the Challenge of Governing across Time — Thomas Hale, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, published by Princeton University Press .

Our resident political scientist is not one to shy away from big topics.?

Tom introduces a set of ‘political technologies’ that can help tackle long-term problems like climate change that span multiple generations. How might we pull forward the shadow interests of future generations so they’re more visible and pressing today?

The Future of Energy — Richard Black , published by Penguin Random House.

Described as ‘a double shot of informed optimism’ and ‘an antidote to climate despair’, Tracker stalwart Richard Black argues that five key technologies have the potential to almost completely replace fossil fuels, speeding up the journey to net zero, cheaper energy, cleaner air, more jobs, and less injustice.?

Join Richard and other experts for a discussion on his book and the future of energy on Monday, 28th October, at Waterstones, Trafalgar Square, London, starting at 19:00.

A Tracker fit for a King

John Lang, Net Zero Tracker lead and founder of Kiwis in Climate , recently met King Charles at a Commonwealth event in St James’s Palace, London. The Tracker was mentioned — notably, in more than just a Kiwi accent.

That’s all for now. Thank you for your ongoing support and feedback. Please get in touch at [email protected] with suggestions or to learn more about joining our volunteer programme.

Please forward this email to others that are interested in shifting net zero from intent to integrity.

The Net Zero Tracker team