CRITICAL MINERAL PERSPECTIVES occurrence and production of mineral raw material
Bass Hatvani Robert
CHIEF MAGNET IN BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE at SSR - STRATEGIC SUPPLY CHAIN REDUNDANCY
Clean energy transitions offer opportunities and challenges for companies that produce minerals - 6 key perspectives in terms of upcoming challenges for a new, comprehensive approach to mineral security:
CRITICAL MINERAL PERSPECTIVES occurrence and production of mineral raw materials
Indo-economic classification of all countries according to reserves, resources, mining production and refinery production in a global comparison, in terms of importance for Germany and for the respective national economy.
Raw materials are crucial to the European economy. They form a strong industrial base in which a wide range of goods and applications of daily life as well as modern technologies are produced.
Reliable and unhindered access to certain raw materials is a growing problem in the EU and worldwide. To meet this challenge, the European Commission has produced a list of critical raw materials (CRM) for the EU, which is regularly reviewed and updated. CRMs combine commodities that are of great importance to the EU economy and that pose a high risk to their supply.
Introduction
The German economy relies on imports for a variety of raw materials, especially iron, non-ferrous metals and so-called high-tech raw materials, and thus on a functioning world trade. In the face of rising demand, resource-rich countries are gaining in importance, both for the global market and for the supply of raw materials to Germany. Closely related to this, the importance of the raw materials sector for the development of the producer countries themselves is increasing.
The first section presents the importance of individual countries in terms of their raw material production (mining and refining production) and their raw material reserves (reserves and resources) in an international comparison. Subsequently, the importance of individual countries for the import of raw materials in Germany is mapped using the German net import statistics.
The commodity-economic classification of the countries worldwide thus provides important basic information for the global assessment from the point of view of raw material economics. Furthermore, the possible significance of countries in the context of commodity cooperation can be considered from the German point of view.
Consideration of net consumption and net surplus (production plus recycling minus consumption), i. Export and import of raw materials reflects the importance of the country for the commodities market. Finally, the share of the commodity sector of a country in the respective economy is shown. This gives some indication of the relevance of this sector to the development of a country.
The present study is based on the study published in September 2010 by the BGR "Commodity Importance of the Countries of Africa, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with Georgia and South America in terms of their importance for Germany". The study updates this assessment and extends the analysis to a global perspective.
In the appendix, the raw material economic data for the 20 most important countries of the three categories examined (1st international importance, 2nd importance for the German import, 3rd share of the commodity sector in the national economy) are shown. These include the share of commodity exports in total commodity exports, the current significance of individual raw materials for world production and imports, the future significance of a country for the share of certain reserves and projects under development, and key data on key framework conditions. Overall, characteristics are given to 37 countries.
Only metals and industrial minerals are evaluated in this study. Energy commodities, including uranium, are not considered.
Methodology and Valuation Principles
Global importance of countries in comparison
For evaluation, uniform feedstock indicators are necessary. In order to assess each country in terms of its importance to global commodity production and potential, four criteria were used:
To assess the countries by international comparison, the respective global rank of the country for the factors reserves, resources, mining production and refining production was first determined independently of each other and then the results for the individual countries were added. The lower the value, the greater the importance on the ranking. For example, a country that ranks first worldwide for all four factors will reach 4 in the aggregate.
With the rank value addition applied, countries place themselves far ahead, if there are no outliers to high ranks, ie bad placements, so they are consistently well placed. Developed countries such as Japan, the Republic of Korea or Taiwan, which have little or no significant reserves and / or resources but high levels of refined sugar production, will be ranked lower.
On the other hand, countries with large reserves and resources, but only low refining production such as Morocco, Bolivia, Papua New Guinea or Guinea also poorer than consistently high-ranking countries such as Mexico. The absolute gaps in the respective categories between the countries are relatively large in the front, but often very small in the middle.
This means that even small changes can cause big differences in the midfield placement (see explanation: ranking). The database was based on the BGR database, the SNL database and the USGS.
Mining production
The production of all metallic raw materials and industrial minerals available in the BGR database was used for the mining production. Andalusite, antimony, asbestos, barite, bauxite, bentonite, beryl, pumice, lead, boron minerals, chromite, diamonds, diatomite, kyrenes, iron, feldspar, fluorite, gypsum / anhydrite, mica, gold, garnet, Illmenite, iodine, potash, lime, kaolin, cobalt, copper, lithium, magnesite, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, niobium, perlite, phosphate, platinum group elements (PGMs), pyrophyllite, mercury, rhenium, rutile, rare earths, silver, sillimanite, Soda, rock salt, strontium minerals, talc, tantalum, vanadium, vermiculite, bismuth, tungsten, yttrium, zinc, tin and zirconium.
The production was multiplied by the average price of 2010. An attempt was made to determine the prices which the mines achieve. For industrial minerals and concentrates, the free on board price (FOB, excluding transport and insurance costs) was used, as far as information was available. For metals, not the price of the London Metal Exchange (LME), but the concentrates, the net smelter return (NSR) was determined. This is the LME price less transport costs and smelting costs, unless the mine's sales product was already a pure metal, e.g. Cathode copper.
Overall, these raw materials already account for 63% of the total value.
In addition to the value of world mining production, the raw materials classified as critical by the EU play a special role for Germany. The production value of these raw materials (European Commission 2010) is relatively low compared to raw materials such as iron, copper or gold (Figure 1, critical raw materials with the highest value are eg PGM, cobalt, tungsten, fluorite), so this , apart from the PGMs, do not play a major role in international comparison or in Germany's imports.
However, as they are indispensable for some sectors because of their poor substitutability, the Annex (Table 5) gives data on production, reserves and resources. Figure 1 shows the value of the annual production (2010) of the individual raw materials in descending order.
Indo-economic classification of all countries according to reserves, resources, mining production and refinery production in a global comparison, in terms of importance for Germany and for the respective national economy.
Refining production
The global raffinate production for the year 2010 (unless stated otherwise) with all 33 refinery products available in the BGR database (BGR 2013) such as aluminum, alumina, arsenic, lead, bromine, diamonds (synthetic), gallium, germanium was used to calculate the value , Indium, cadmium, cobalt, copper, magnesium, nickel, sulfur, selenium, silicon, steel, tellurium, titanium,
Figure 2: Value of refined sugar production of the raw materials considered. Production figures and value from 2010.
Bismuth, zinc, tin, ferro-chromium, ferro-manganese, ferro-molybdenum, ferro-nickel (2007), ferro-niobium, ferro-silicon (2008), ferro-vanadium (2007), silico-chromium, silico-manganese (2007) and cement. Even if the production figures are not from the year 2010, the prices for 2010 were used. Figure 2 shows the value of the annual production (2010) of the individual raw materials in descending order.
Reserves
Reserve data is from the MineSearch database of the Metals Economics Group (MEG) or the US Geological Survey (USGS) and was compiled in January 2013. The selection criterion used was - if there were any discrepancies between the databases - the higher value. The reason for this is that the MEG database uses only publicly available information on reserves and resources, but these are not available for all raw materials and all countries.
Thus, if the values determined by the USGS are higher, these were used to prevent underestimation of certain commodities and countries. For the evaluation, the value of the raw material content of all raw materials was determined from the databases. For metals, where possible, the NSR price was used to calculate the value.
If the value of one resource for global reserves was less than $ 1 billion, the resource was no longer included in the calculation.
In this way, the following 27 raw materials were considered:
antimony, lead, bauxite, chromium, diamonds, iron, fluorite, gold, potash, cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, niobium, PGMs, phosphate, REE, silver, tantalum , Titanium, vanadium, tungsten, zinc, tin and zirconium. In order to avoid an overestimation of the reserves of individual countries, an upper limit was used, which is 30 times the annual production, since mining plans over a period of more than 30 years do not make economic sense.
Figure 3 shows the distribution of the value of the reserves of the individual raw materials.
Figure 3: Value of reserves by average resource value from 2010. Reserved data from 2013. As the most recent full mining and refinery production dates back to 2010, 2010 average resource prices were also used to determine the value of reserves and resources.
Importance of the countries for the import of raw materials in Germany
For the evaluation of individual countries with regard to the raw material imports of Germany, a statistics on the net import (import minus export) of Germany for the metals aluminum, lead, chromium, iron, gold, cobalt, copper, magnesium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, platinum, silver , Silicon, tantalum, titanium, vanadium, tungsten, zinc and tin. These are by value the most important metals that are imported and for which there is a sufficient database.
To obtain a representative statistic, the value of all ores, concentrates, ashes, scrap, raw metals, powders and ferroalloys was added separately for import and export and then the average of the years 2007 - 2011 was determined. Semi-finished and further processed materials were not taken into account.
As gold and silver show negative numbers over the entire period (due to recycling in Germany, they were more exported than imported), these metals were not included in the import statistics. Alumina was also not included, because Germany produces this product itself from bauxite. For the remaining commodities, their percentage of total net imports was calculated and then multiplied by the global share of each country in each of the four categories of reserves, resources, mine production and refinery production.
The results were then added for the 18 indicated metals. For example, the value of copper imports accounts for 34% of German net imports. If a country owns 20% of the world's copper reserves, this 20% is multiplied by the share of copper in imports (34%).
For the evaluation, the most significant imports of raw materials are first displayed as a percentage and then combined with the raw material countries (Table 2). Analogous to the assessment of the countries in the international comparison, the rankings of the categories mining production, refinery production, reserves and resources were added.
Relevance of a country to the world market
The importance of a country to the global commodity market depends essentially on its export of raw materials. This is determined by the country's own consumption in addition to the mining production. In order to be able to estimate the exports of a country, therefore, the mining production plus the recycling minus the consumption for the raw materials with available data was determined.
This was the case for aluminum (bauxite), lead, iron ore and steel (excluding recycling data), gold, potash (without recycling), copper, nickel, phosphate (without recycling) silver, zinc and tin (excluding recycling data). Fertilizers (potash and phosphate) are not recycled due to their use in agriculture. The trade in scrap metal is not taken into account because it is already covered by the recycling data.
In order to be able to classify the net supply or net demand of all countries by value, the average metal prices of 2010 were multiplied by the calculated surpluses or calculated deficits of the countries and then added together. In the final assessment it has to be considered that according to the available figures aluminum is more in excess than it actually is (inaccuracies in the conversion of bauxite to alumina and aluminum due to different quality of raw materials). Accordingly, countries with high bauxite production are overestimated due to the calculated excess. Overall, the notional surplus amounts to US $ 22 billion.
In iron ore, the supply side is well represented, but there are no recycling numbers that are important for net consumption. In terms of volume, recycling mainly takes place at large steel producers processing secondary steel. As a result, countries that produce, consume and recycle a lot of steel will experience a greater deficit than they actually do. The deficit in iron / steel is calculated at $ 79 billion. For all other commodities, the difference between net supply and net demand is below $ 3.6 billion.
Share of the commodity sector in the national economy
Regardless of a country's importance to the international commodities market, the commodity sector can play a major or minor role within an economy. This depends both on the size of the mining and refining industry itself and on the size and diversification of the economy as a whole. In this category, the importance of the commodity sectors of all countries for the national economies should be examined.
This requires the use of uniform indicators available for all countries. As a first approximation, the main criteria used are (1) the share of production and processing of mineral resources in GDP and (2) the share of the extractive sector in a country's exports. Only mineral raw materials without uranium are considered. The mining sector includes both mining and refining products.
The international comparison of the economic importance of the commodity sector to a country provides a first indication of the potential that the sector could contribute to the development of a country. In practice, however, the contribution of the extractive sector to the development of a country is diverse and difficult to quantify. On the one hand, the raw materials sector can contribute directly to the state budget through taxes and levies.
On the other hand, the mining and refining industry can also contribute to sectoral and regional development through investment, the development of a supply industry, direct jobs or by providing social benefits and infrastructure. Overall, there is often a discrepancy between the potential and actual contribution of the extractive industry to the development of a country.
In addition, the potential contribution of the extractive industry to the development of a country must be compared with the costs of the sector. This includes expenses for the prevention and limitation of environmental damage or social effects, which are to be quantified only in a specific individual case.
Share of gross domestic product (GDP)
The calculation of the share of the mining and refining sector in GDP also includes the raw materials listed in Chapter 2.1, taken from the BGR database. The database contains a variety of different international statistics on the volume and value of global raw material and refined sugar production. GDP data were based on World Bank data (WORLD BANK 2013a). Data on the share of the national resource sector in GDP refer to 2010 (exceptions: Djibouti (2009), Greenland (2009), Iran (2009), Cuba (2008) and Libya (2009)).
Share in exports
The calculation of the share of mineral resources in countries' exports is based on the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database and includes both exports of mineral mining products and exports of refined sugar products. This selection was made to make a full assessment of the importance of the commodities sector. The majority of ferrous and non-ferrous metals as well as important industrial minerals, gems and construction minerals were included in the calculation and set in relation to the total exports of the respective country.
The UNCTAD export categories 971 (gold) and 667 (precious metals) were also corrected using the BGR database, as international trade and processed products as well as waste and scrap were increasingly included in the export categories. A detailed list of the export goods groups considered can be found in Chapter 7 (Explanatory Notes). The data refer to the year 2010.
As a result (Figure 7), countries are compared and countries where the resource sector is of major importance to the national economy are separately identified. According to the definitions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank, these include those countries where the export of mineral mining and refining products contributes at least 25% to national exports or at least 20% of national GDP.
It continues to identify those countries where the resource sector is of medium importance. This includes all states in which mining and refining of mineral resources contribute at least 10% to national GDP or where mineral resources account for at least 15% of national exports. This classification does not take into account the importance that the resource sector can have for a single region, or a single mining project for the local population.
The detailed results are shown in abbreviated form in Table 5 and can be found completely in Table 4 in the appendix.
Results of the international comparison
Figure 5 shows an overview of the global shares of mine production and the reserves of the countries described. Table 1 also shows the respective ranks in the four categories of mine and refinery production, reserves and resources as well as the sum of the ranks (ranking) for the top 50 Represented countries. The complete list can be found in the appendix (Tab. 2).
The most important countries for global raw material production are China, Brazil, Australia and the Russian Federation (ranked 13 to 17). With some distance (rank 25 to 38) follow Chile, Canada, the USA, South Africa and India. Over 70% of the world's mining production and reserves are located in these nine countries. In terms of resources it is 63%, as well as in the production of refined sugar. Since these nine countries have such a high share of global raw material production and inventories, they will be considered in more detail below.
First and foremost is China due to refinery and mine production and high reserves. Brazil and Australia, ranked 2 and 3, show a significantly lower production of refined sugar in comparison. In terms of resources, China occupies only ninth place. However, due to poor data, it is likely that resources are underestimated.
China's mining production is fairly well diversified, so there is no dependence on any raw material. The highest value is iron, followed by construction minerals and gold. In total, 18 commodities have a production value of over US $ 1 billion.
China's largest reserves are designated for iron, followed by phosphate, copper and molybdenum. Gold follows rank 5 and could be reduced after the reserves only a good five years. Here is to assume that there is too small, officially known size of the reserves. Of the known resources, iron and phosphate are by far the largest in value.
Nevertheless, China's iron resources ($ 1.36 trillion) are just over a tenth of the resources of Australia or Brazil. China is the largest producer of refined sugar, accounting for 41% of the value of global production. The main products are steel, followed by cement, aluminum and copper.
Figure 5: Share of mine production (color) and share of reserves (counties) for countries with a share> 0.1% in each category. Data in %.
In second place comes Brazil, which is behind Australia and China in terms of reserves and mining production, but is the leader in resources. The dominant position is iron. Brazil is the second largest producer, has the second largest reserves and the second largest resource, behind Australia. Iron ore accounts for between 75 and 80% of the value in the three categories of mining production, reserves and resources.
Likewise, Brazil has by far the largest niobium resources in the world, putting it ahead of Australia and Canada in the resource category. Brazil's performance in refining production is slightly lower than in the other categories. Here steel dominates, like iron ore in mine production. However, steel accounts for just over 50% of the total refinery, followed by aluminum, cement, alumina and copper.
Together in third place are Australia and the Russian Federation. While the Russian Federation is well ahead in all four categories, Australia has abundant reserves, resources and mine production. Australia is dominated by large iron ore deposits and iron ore production, followed by gold, copper and nickel.
However, the country has only a relatively low production of refined sugar. Steel production, which dominates the production of refined sugar in almost all countries, is relatively low in Australia and only third after alumina and aluminum production. In the processing of aluminum products, Australia ranks second worldwide (Alumina) and 4th (respectively). Aluminum).
In the Russian Federation, iron or steel leads all categories. Steel makes up 55% of the value of refined goods, as does iron ore in resources. For reserves and mine production, iron is 33% of the total. In addition to iron, gold, nickel, copper and potash are particularly relevant for the Russian Federation. This is particularly true of reserves and mine production, where these four raw materials together make up about 50% of the value.
Chile ranks fifth in the ranking. Copper is by far the most important product. Only iron plays an even greater role in resources (14% of total resources, copper 74%). For all other categories, copper is over 80%. In addition, copper mining involves other raw materials such as molybdenum, gold and silver, which are obtained as by-products or co-products.
Especially molybdenum is of great importance here. Chile is the world's third largest producer of molybdenum. In refinery production, Chile is falling behind because of its barely $ 600 million steel production. The countries placed in Chile's refinery production are worth at least $ 19 billion in steel production.
Canada is ranked 6th. Canada's commodity production is well diversified, unlike Chile's. In contrast to the countries mentioned above, potash accounts for a large proportion of reserves, resources and mining production. In terms of reserves, Kali is a leader in value, followed immediately by iron, copper, gold and nickel.
The value of designated resources in Canada is almost as high as in Brazil and Australia. The high resources in Brazil and Australia are mainly due to the large iron ore deposits, which in Canada with 6.2 Bill. US $ are only about half as big as in the two leading countries.
The high total value is due to the potash resources, which are only just behind iron ore. In Canadian mining production, potash accounts for approximately 20% or $ 5.4 billion, followed by iron, gold, copper, nickel and zinc, which also produce more than $ 1 billion.
The US is ranked 7th because they are in the lead in all categories. In comparison to Canada, US raw material production is even more diversified. Thus, the main value mineral for reserves, resources and mine production contributes only about 25% to the total.
These are gold in resources and production, and copper in reserves, followed by iron, phosphate and molybdenum. The US ranked fourth best in refinery production. Two-thirds of this value comes from steel production, followed by copper, aluminum and cement.
Rank 8 is South Africa, especially due to high production figures and high reserves and resources. Main ingredients are platinum, iron and gold. South Africa is by far the largest producer of platinum in the world. The wealth of this metal is also the main reason why the country ranks fifth in terms of resources. Platinum contributes two-thirds of the value of resources, followed by gold, nickel and iron, as well as palladium and rhodium as other PGMs.
As for reserves, South Africa is ranked 7th in terms of reserves. Main products are gold, platinum and iron, followed by other PGMs. Other important products are the steel converters chromite and manganese, in which South Africa is ranked 1 (chromite) and 2 (manganese) in world production.
Ferro-chromium dominates in the production of refined sugar, and South Africa is the world leader in production. This is followed by steel and aluminum. Also important in international comparison are the products ferro-manganese and ferro-vanadium. For statistical reasons, gold and platinum are not considered part of the refinery production. Therefore, South Africa is only ranked 15th in refined sugar production.
India is ranked ninth in terms of reserves. India, ranked 90% by iron ore, is ranked 5th. In mining, it is ranked 6th by Australia's third-largest iron ore and Brazil. India is also ranked fifth in refining production. Here, as in almost all major countries in this category, steel production dominates.
Other important products are cement, copper, aluminum and ferro-chromium, but also zinc, alumina and silico-manganese have a value of more than $ 1 billion. India is only ranked 22nd in terms of resources. However, placement is likely to be underestimated due to a lack of information about resources.
In ranks 10 - 15, Ukraine, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Peru and Iran are ranked between 48 and 86.
Ukraine is ranked 10th with consistently leading positions. By far the most important raw material is iron or steel in all categories. Manganese and titanium follow at a distance. Ferro-nickel and silico-manganese play a major role only in refining and together account for 17% of production.
Mexico (11th place) is as important as Ukraine for mining production and reserves, but slightly lower in terms of resources and refinery production. Mexico's commodity economy is highly diversified.
The most important raw materials are gold, silver, copper and iron, but also lead and zinc, as well as manganese and above all fluorite, which accounts for about 20% of world production in Mexico, play an important role. In refining, steel dominates over 60% of production value, but copper and cement together account for over a quarter of production.
Indonesia (ranked 12th) has high reserves as well as high mining production but lesser designated resources and less refined sugar production. Copper, gold and nickel are the main products of mining in Indonesia. These resources also have the largest reserves and resources.
Tin is the most important product of world production.
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Of this metal, Indonesia produced 27% worldwide (2010), but bauxite is also an important product, accounting for 11% of world production. At present, Indonesia is only ranked 25th in refined sugar production. However, a new law prohibiting the export of unprocessed raw materials could increase the share of refined sugar. The most important products in this sector are steel, copper, cement and tin, with Indonesia being the world's second largest producer.
In Kazakhstan (rank 13) iron, copper and gold are the most important mineral raw materials. In addition, the steel refineries chromite and manganese are important mining products, of which Kazakhstan has a fairly large share of world production (19% chromite, 9% manganese). Ferro-chromium is also the most important product for refined sugar, even ahead of steel and copper. This is followed by zinc, alumina and aluminum.
Peru (rank 14) has large reserves and resources as well as high mining production. Copper and gold in particular play a major role in mining. Furthermore, zinc, silver and iron are significant and each worth over 1 billion US $. Molybdenum at 7% and above all tin at 11% can also be cited from the share in the world market. In terms of reserves and resources, these raw materials are also important, with the difference that here copper is far more relevant to gold.
Peru also has resources of phosphate (5% of Peru's resources), but this makes up only a very small part of its production. Due to the low refined sugar, Peru is only 14th in the overall ranking. Copper accounts for more than 50% of refined refinery sales, followed by tin and steel. The production of tin in Peru is of international importance. In 2010, the country produced 10% of the world's refined tin.
Iran (rank 15) follows with a relatively large gap. Mining production and reserves are both at the same level. Main raw materials are iron and copper. At a great distance, apart from industrial raw materials such as lime and gypsum, the metals zinc and molybdenum follow. The reserves are still small amounts of chromite added.
The reported resources of Iran are relatively small, with copper, zinc and lead being the most important according to official figures. In refining production, Iran is again in the mining production and reserves sector (rank 19). The reason is the high production of steel, cement and refined copper.
The 15 countries described so far cover 85% of global reserves, 82% of mining production and about 70% of global resources and refined sugar production. The share of mining production and reserves of the 15 most resource-economically important countries is overall higher than the share of resources.
This is because countries with large resources such as Morocco (phosphate), Bolivia (iron), Guinea (iron) or the Republic of Congo (potash) are not ranked in the top 15. In refinery production, industrialized countries such as Germany or Japan fall into the top 15 due to comparatively low reserves, resources and mining production, so that the total of the most important 15 mining countries in the refinery production is lower.
Germany is ranked 16th with a fairly large gap to Iran. In terms of reserves, resources and mining production, Germany is in the upper midfield.
This is almost exclusively based on potash salt. In addition, on a world scale there are small resources of copper in the copper shale of Spremberg and Zinn in the Ore Mountains. In addition to potash, lime, rock salt and kaolin, which together have a similar value to potash, are added to mine production.
Germany ranks 8th worldwide in refinery production. Steel also dominates this area in Germany, but copper also plays a major role, followed by cement, aluminum, lead, zinc and alumina.
Importance of the countries for the German raw material imports
The shares of the respective commodities in the value of German raw material imports are shown in Figure 6. The top five metals for net imports are copper (33.7%), aluminum (17.2%), iron (11.4%), nickel (9.8%) and platinum (8.4%).
These five commodities account for more than 80% of the total value (€ 17.6 billion on average over the past five years).
As a result, countries that produce these raw materials and / or have large reserves and resources of these raw materials are in the lead for Germany. Of the raw materials that have been assessed as critical by the EU under the EU Raw Materials Initiative (EU Commission 2010), only cobalt, magnesium, tantalum and tungsten are considered in this import analysis. The reason for this is that the market volume for the other critical raw materials, e.g.
Beryllium, gallium, indium, but also that of the rare earths, is very small. Regardless of the quantity, these raw materials are essential for the production of some high technology products. The appendix in Table 5 gives an overview of the production, reserves and resources of these 14 raw materials.
Looking at the results, we look more closely at the twelve countries that have the largest production figures, reserves and resources of the important commodities in Germany (Figure 6). On the one hand, after rank 12, there is a clear leap in the importance of all categories. On the other hand, in all categories (reserves, resources, mining and refining production), the countries that are important for net imports for Germany are depicted.
Chile ranks first in importance for Germany. Due to the large mining production, the reserves and resources as well as the high refinery production of copper, Chile ranks among the top 3 for Germany in all four categories (Table 2). Copper contributes more than 90% to each category in Chile due to its high status for German imports. By a very large margin for the German import follows Chile molybdenum. Iron plays virtually no role.
Figure 6: Diagram of the percentage net import value of Germany's most important imported metals.
Australia follows in second place. In addition of reserves, resources and mining production, the country is only slightly behind Chile. However, the production of refined sugar is less significant.
Despite the large iron ore deposits and production, bauxite is Australia's most important product for Germany because its global share of this resource is very high in Australia, especially in its reserves and mining production. Furthermore, iron, copper and nickel are important raw materials for the German import.
Australia also plays a leading role in lead, zinc, titanium and manganese. In the refinery production, the land falls back, because the raw materials produced there are usually sold directly and not further processed. Main products for the German import in this area are aluminum, copper and nickel.
In third place is China, which has a similar importance in reserves and mining production with Chile and Australia. China has a variety of raw materials. Most important are bauxite, copper and iron.
Despite the low share of German imports, molybdenum, zinc, lead, manganese, tin and especially tungsten, of which China promotes more than 90% worldwide, are important raw materials for Germany. In terms of resources, China is only in 10th place, probably due to poor data.
China produces almost all of its metals, which are important for Germany, in the production of refined sugar. Especially copper, aluminum and steel are to be emphasized. China receives almost four times as many rating points in the refinery production category as Japan ranks second, and nearly five times as many as Chile ranked third. However, due to the low declared resources, only the third overall ranking is significant for Germany.
On the ranks 4 to 7 follow South Africa, the Russian Federation as well as the USA and Brazil.
In South Africa, platinum dominates with regard to the import significance for Germany in terms of reserves, resources and mining production with at least 70% of the respective categories. South Africa accounts for more than 75% of the reserves, resources and production of platinum worldwide.
The reserves also consider chromite, manganese and vanadium to be significant. Here, the country is in second place worldwide. In terms of resources, nickel (the world's third largest resource) after platinum plays the biggest role. In mining, as in the reserves, chromium and manganese are the most important after platinum.
Vanadium, whose largest producer is South Africa, is also of international importance. South Africa's most important refinery product in terms of German imports is ferro-chromium, followed by aluminum and ferro-vanadium.
Rank 5 is the Russian Federation. The most important mining products are copper, nickel and platinum. Bauxite and iron also play a greater role for Germany. In addition to South Africa and China, the Russian Federation is one of the only three countries producing significant amounts of vanadium.
In terms of reserves, the same raw materials as mine production, as well as zinc and tungsten, contribute to the importance of the Russian Federation for German raw material imports. The resources of the Russian Federation are slightly lower. The main reason is the lower levels of nickel and especially platinum, but also the proven resources of bauxite are low compared to the reserves.
In terms of refined sugar production, the Russian Federation is only just behind Chile on rank 4. Major products with import significance for Germany are aluminum, copper, nickel and steel. In addition to nickel, other steel refineries such as chromium, titanium, manganese and cobalt are produced, but do not contribute substantially to the importance of the Russian Federation.
In the import rating for Germany, the United States is on par with Brazil in 6th place. The most important mining product in the US is copper in this category, followed by a long way by molybdenum. Other products include zinc, iron, lead and platinum. The same products can be found with similar values in the reserves. In terms of resources, the importance of the US is lower. Main aspect here are the chromite resources. There are hardly any resources worldwide for this raw material, not even for South Africa as the largest producer. The USA's chromite resources are not very large in terms of quantity, but since this ranking is based on a percentage evaluation, the US is benefiting very much from a nickel project in which chromite is also found. Without Chromit, the country would be three places lower in the resources rank 9th.
Brazil is also ranked 6th, largely due to its high reserves and resources, as well as mine production. The most important raw materials are bauxite and iron. This is followed by copper, nickel and manganese. Brazil is also of world importance at Tantal, for which it is the most important producer and has by far the largest reserves. In refining production Brazil is well behind the USA and the Russian Federation. Aluminum, steel, copper and nickel are the most important raw materials here.
Canada is ranked 8th with constant rankings in the various categories. For German imports, copper and nickel are the main raw materials in mining production and reserves, followed by platinum and iron. In terms of resources, iron is ahead of copper, zinc and nickel. In refining production, copper and nickel production are significant alongside high aluminum production, where Canada ranks third worldwide behind China and the Russian Federation.
India is ranked 9th due to its low declared resources. Iron and bauxite are India's most important raw materials in mining production and reserves in terms of import weighting for Germany. Copper is relevant in refined sugar production, followed by aluminum, ferro-molybdenum and steel.
Kazakhstan comes in 10th overall. Copper and chromite, followed by bauxite, are the main raw materials in production and reserves. In terms of resources, chromite is well ahead of copper and iron, with bauxite following in 4th place. In refinery production, copper, ferro-chromium, titanium and aluminum are the primary raw materials of German import statistics.
Indonesia ranks 11th. Mining production is the most important for German imports. Especially bauxite, nickel and copper are of great importance. For nickel, Indonesia is the world's largest producer. Significant is also the production of tin, where Indonesia ranks second behind China in production worldwide. Together, both countries account for two-thirds of world production of tin.
For reserves of copper, nickel and tin, the country has similar global shares as mine production, but bauxite has no reserves. The resources of copper, nickel and tin are less than the reserves. Once again, there is no data available for bauxite, which means that Indonesia's reserves and resources are lower than those of mine production. In refining, copper is the major product, followed by tin, nickel and aluminum. Steel is almost irrelevant.
For Peru (12th place), copper's reserves, resources and production of raw materials are of greatest relevance to German demand, ahead of zinc, molybdenum, tin and lead. In contrast, Peru's refinery production is significantly lower. Again, copper is the most important product, but the share of world production is much lower than in the mine production. The same applies to zinc. Only for tin are the results similar to those for raw material production. In the production of refined tin, Peru ranks 4th worldwide.
The nations following these twelve countries are of much less importance for German raw material imports and are therefore not described in detail here. The results of the evaluation up to rank 50 are summarized in Table 2. The results for all countries can be found in the appendix (Table 3).
Important raw material exporters
In order to give an overview of the supply of the world market, each of the ten largest net importing countries and exporting countries were considered in detail. The pure mining production gives no indication of the supply of the world market, since the consumption of the country is not considered. For example, China is the largest producer of raw materials (Table 1). However, since the country is also the largest consumer, it does not appear among the top exporters (Table 3), but instead lists the import list (Table 4).
Other countries, such as Indonesia, are more important in net exports than in pure commodity production, since relatively little is consumed in the country itself. In the statistics on the supply of the world market is to be considered that due to the data only eleven raw materials were taken into account. However, these eleven commodities account for over 80% of the value of global raw material production, so that this area should be well represented despite the small number of raw materials.
Net exports show which countries potentially provide raw materials for the world market, including Germany, while net imports represent those that are potentially competing for resources with Germany.
The total of the surplus of all net exporting countries is $ 399 billion. Among the net exporters of the first ten countries, all but Guinea are among the 12 leading commodity countries, accounting for 77% of the net export value. Among the top 10 leading commodity countries, three are not among the ten largest net exporters. These are the net importers China, India and the USA (Table 3 and 4).
In the following, the ten countries with the largest computational export volume (by value) are examined in more detail.
For the exporters Australia leads with 108 billion US $. This corresponds to 27% of world exports of all countries. Iron dominates the statistics with US $ 53 billion, but aluminum plays a major role with US $ 32 billion. In addition, gold, copper, nickel, zinc and lead, with an export value of between $ 1 and $ 9 billion, add up to $ 24 billion. By contrast, imports are not significant.
Brazil ranks second among net exporters (US $ 45bn, 11%), as Australia benefits mainly from iron ore (US $ 36bn), followed by aluminum (US $ 10bn). Gold and nickel together total $ 3 billion. Potash and copper are mainly imported ($ 4 billion in total).
Table 3: Overview of the net import and net export of the 11 raw materials investigated (for selection see chapter 2.3) by value in billion US $ among the ten largest net exporters. The total indicates whether a country is a net importer or a net exporter. Negative values denote net importers, net positive exporters.
Chile, with US $ 42 billion in net exports (11%), is just behind Brazil. In addition to gold and silver (together $ 2 billion), which comes mainly from copper mining, Chile is by far the largest copper exporter ($ 39 billion). Further exports and also imports only play a minor role.
Indonesia is ranked fourth in the net export statistics, at US $ 24 billion (6%). The country has a net import of $ 3.5 billion, of which iron is over $ 2 billion. On the export side, Indonesia is not just dependent on one commodity. For example, five commodities total over $ 1 billion, including aluminum ($ 10 billion), gold ($ 6 billion), nickel and copper ($ 5 billion each), and tin ($ 2 billion) $).
The Russian Federation is also ranked fifth and has several commodities with an export volume of US $ 1 billion or more. These are nickel ($ 5 billion), gold, ($ 5 billion), iron ($ 4 billion), potash ($ 3 billion), copper ($ 2 billion) and aluminum ($ 5 billion). $ 1 billion). With the other, less significant commodities, the total amount to 22 billion US $ (6%), since there are hardly any imports.
Peru also has net exports of $ 22 billion (6%). Here, copper ($ 9 billion) and gold ($ 6 billion) dominate the export, followed by zinc ($ 3 billion) and silver ($ 2 billion). Imports are practically non-existent.
By some margin, Canada ranks seventh. The country has a net export of US $ 14 billion, consisting of potash (US $ 5 billion), nickel and copper (US $ 3 billion each), gold (US $ 1 billion). US $), iron (US $ 1 billion) and zinc (US $ 1 billion). On the import side is only aluminum for 1 billion US $.
South Africa is ranked 8th with US $ 13 billion. The net exports of commodities within this statistic are mainly iron and gold, which are almost equally divided into US $ 13 billion. Aluminum is imported for $ 1 billion. Platinum group elements, where South Africa is the world leader in production, are not covered because of the lack of meaningful statistics.
Ranked 9th is Kazakhstan, which has virtually no imports and net exports of $ 9 billion. These are distributed fairly evenly over aluminum, copper, iron, gold and zinc, which are all just under 1 to 2.5 billion US $.
The last country in the top 10 is Guinea. Aluminum is by far the most important product, followed by gold by a long way. Guinea is one of the largest bauxite producers in the world.
A further 28 countries report net exports of more than $ 1 billion, or $ 77 billion, or 19% of total exports. The remaining 4% ($ 14 billion) is spread over 48 countries.
Other countries that are not shown here, but for individual commodities as large net exporters occur (> 10% of global exports), z. Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan, which account for nearly 50% of net phosphate exports. At Kali, Belorussia, Germany, Jordan and Israel together account for about 40% of exports.
For silver, Mexico holds the most important position, together with Peru, with more than 20% of the material available on the world market. At Tin, Bolivia plays an important role in international trade, accounting for 11% of the world's tin exports. The Philippines is the third largest (15%) nickel exporter worldwide, ahead of Australia.
The total net import of all countries amounts to $ 447 billion. By far the largest net consumer is China with a deficit of US $ 195 billion (44%), followed by India with US $ 41 billion (9%), Japan with US $ 30 billion (7%) Republic of Korea with $ 27 billion (6%), Germany with $ 23 billion (5%) and the United States with $ 19 billion (4%).
These countries together make up 75% of the value of total net consumption (Table 4). The difference between raw material production and availability, or provision for the world market, is evident in China, India and the USA. These countries are ranked 1, 6 and 8 in the statistics on global commodity production (Table 1), although they are among the largest net importers overall.
China is a strong importer of all commodities under consideration ($ 195 billion in total) with the exception of phosphate and silver, where net imports are low. The largest part of the deficit is iron for US $ 98 billion. The use of recycling can unfortunately not be taken into account for iron, because there are no statistics available. The actual value should be a bit lower.
Nevertheless, the number is impressive, because the second largest net consumer, the US, comes to an import volume of 16 billion US $. The second most important import raw material is copper. China imports computationally copper with a metal value of 46 billion US $. This represents more than 50% of the material available for export worldwide. In lead, China absorbs about 45% of the available material.
This is all the more remarkable because China is also the largest lead producer and recycler worldwide. In the case of nickel, tin, zinc and bauxite, the country imports by far the largest amount of material worldwide (27-35% of the mathematically available material).
India, on the other hand, would be a net exporter if it did not import $ 54 billion worth of gold. The country exports $ 21 billion worth of iron and $ 2 billion worth of aluminum. On the import side, in addition to gold, especially copper, phosphate, potash and silver, which are imported for a total of 11 billion US $.
The three following net importers Japan, Republic of Korea and Germany mainly import iron ore, aluminum, nickel and zinc. In addition, Japan and the Republic of Korea have a relatively high amount of gold ($ 2 and $ 5 billion) and a lot of copper ($ 6 and $ 8 billion) in the Republic of Korea and Germany. Of these three countries, only Germany exports potash ($ 1 billion) to one of the eleven commodities under consideration.
The US is a very large net importer of iron (US $ 16 billion). For aluminum, nickel, silver and potash there is a deficit of $ 2-4 billion each. On the other hand, phosphate and gold with a total value of US $ 7 billion are exported.
In seventh place is Taiwan, which has a deficit of $ 12 billion. Particularly large is the import of iron ($ 5 billion) and copper ($ 4 billion). Nickel ($ 1.5 billion) and zinc ($ 0.5 billion) follow at a larger distance.
Table 4: Overview of the net import and net export of the 11 raw materials analyzed (for selection see chapter 2.3) by value in billion US $ among the ten largest net importers. The total indicates whether a country is a net importer or a net exporter. Negative values denote net importers, net positive exporters.
Just behind, Italy follows in 8th place ($ 11 billion). Iron imports the most ($ 6 billion), well ahead of gold, copper and nickel, each at just over $ 1 billion.
Turkey also ranks 9th in iron / steel with a large deficit of $ 5 billion, followed by copper ($ 2 billion) and aluminum ($ 1 billion). These three commodities already account for just under $ 8 billion of the $ 9 billion deficit. All other commodities must also be imported net, but the total is just over $ 1 billion.
With $ 7 billion, France ranks 10th among net importing countries. Also in this country, iron is worth the commodity with the largest import requirement ($ 3 billion), followed by copper ($ 2 billion) and aluminum ($ 1 billion).
Apart from the ten net importing countries mentioned, only Brazil accounts for more than 10% of world imports for one commodity. This is Kali, of which Brazil absorbs 13% of the available volume.
The ten largest net importers account for 84% of the value ($ 374 billion). For another 20 countries, net imports are calculated at more than $ 1 billion. The total number of these countries amounts to US $ 62 billion, or 14% of net imports. The remaining 2.5% are spread over 62 countries.
Share of the commodity sector in the national economy
Figure 7: Importance of the mineral resources sector according to the share of mining and refinery production in GDP and as a share of exports.
Overall, the extraction and refining of mineral resources is of medium economic importance in 38 countries worldwide and in 11 countries (see Chapter 2.4). Most of these countries are developing and emerging economies, 15 of which are in the lower world bank income class and 16 are in the group of the least developed countries (Table 5).
Furthermore, the states predominate with a low (average -0.26) Governance Indicator (WGI), which combines six different categories to assess the governance or stability of a country and whose values vary between -2.5 and +2.5 can.
A low governance indicator suggests, inter alia, low government performance, weak governance, the rule of law and corruption control, and inadequate political stability and the presence of violence. In general, these factors hinder the economic development of a country and complicate the sustainable management of natural resources and responsible regulation of the commodities sector.
There are also five industrialized countries (High World Bank income class) among the 38 countries that are very important in the commodities sector. These include Iceland, Bahrain and Luxembourg, where the domestic refining industry has a strong statistical impact on GDP and exports for comparatively small economies.
On the other hand, Chile and Australia are examples of relatively large economies, where the commodity sector, because of its absolute volume, has a significant impact on exports and GDP.
Countries such as Brazil and China generally have a resource sector of medium importance.
Both countries have very large economies and a highly diversified economic structure, which keeps the absolute share of the commodity sector in the overall economy comparatively low.
Although these countries are the world's most important commodity countries (ranked 1 and 2 in terms of global importance), they rank 67 and 42 in the international comparison of the share of commodity sectors in the national economy.
In contrast, the top 3 countries in the ranking of the economic importance of the commodity sectors (Zambia, DR Congo and Mauritania) are only ranked 25th, 17th and 46th in the international comparison of mining production, refinery production, reserves and resources.
Of the 49 countries with large and medium importance of the commodities sector, 20 are heavily dominated by the mining sector, with more than 75 percent of the total commodity sector.
These include DR Congo, Mauritania, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Botswana, Mali, Peru, Guyana, Guinea, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, Australia, Tanzania, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Rwanda, Central African Republic and Lesotho. In contrast, the raw materials industry is dominated by the refinery industry in eight countries.
For example, these countries imported unprocessed raw materials to produce steel or non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, nickel or copper. The eight countries are Tajikistan, Mozambique, Iceland, Montenegro, Bahrain, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Luxembourg and China.
Overall, the degree of diversification of mining sectors is rather low in the countries with a large and medium economic importance of the extractive sector. In twelve of the 49 countries, a total of three or less mineral resources are mined, and in just under half of the countries (22) more than 75% of the extractive industry is dominated by one commodity in terms of value.
These include: Zambia (copper), Chile (copper), Mali (gold), Suriname (gold), Guyana (gold), Laos (copper), Ukraine (iron), Ghana (gold), Burkina Faso (gold), Tanzania (Gold), Kyrgyzstan (gold), Jamaica (bauxite), Uzbekistan (gold), Cuba (nickel), Togo (phosphate), Brazil (iron), Central African Republic (diamonds) and Lesotho (diamonds).
These countries are increasingly exposed to volatility in world market prices.
On the other hand, the fall in commodity prices can also lead to abrupt deficits in the public purse and to increased unemployment as a result of possible mine closures. 22 countries can rely on a broad raw material base in the area of mining production with more than 5 raw materials.
Table 5: Overview of the countries where the resource sector is of high (green) or medium (blue) importance, with the share of mining and refinery production in GDP and export, information on the governance indicator (WGI) and the income class of the countries according to the World Bank and data on the number of raw materials recovered and the value of the most important raw material in the total mine production of the country.
Explanations
ranking
The absolute distances between the countries are not taken into account in the pure ranking. In addition, for a country that has only a low Raffinadeproduction, for example, but is placed very far in the front in all other categories, no rating in the front area will be possible when adding the ranks.
Due to a low rank rating in a category, a ranking will be ranked accordingly. On the other hand, using the absolute distances, a country that has only a very high production of refined sugar could be clearly ahead of other countries that are significantly more important in terms of mining, reserves and resources by international standards. Since this is not wanted, a pure representation of the results was ranked.
reserves
A reserve is defined as the area of a deposit that has been explored with great accuracy and that can be economically mined using the current technical possibilities. The availability of a reserve depends on the level of exploration of the deposit, the price of raw materials and the state of the art.
resources
A resource is defined as the area of a deposit that is either proven but not currently economically recoverable, or that has not yet been geologically determined.
The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions
An energy system powered by clean energy technologies differs profoundly from one fuelled by traditional hydrocarbon resources. Building solar photovoltaic (PV) plants, wind farms and electric vehicles (EVs) generally requires more minerals than their fossil fuel- based counterparts.
A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant. Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50% as the share of renewables has risen.
The types of mineral resources used vary by technology. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, longevity and energy density. Rare earth elements are essential for permanent magnets that are vital for wind turbines and EV motors. Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminium, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies.
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1 年It is very useful . would you please give a list of top importer's of chromite in EU.
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