Criteria for AGI/ASI Arrival: A Gradual, Emergent Process Over the Next 20 Years
Doug Hohulin
Working to Save 1 Billion Lives with AI, When the AI System Has to Be Right: Healthcare, Road Safety/AV, Governance/Policy, Energy and Education. Co-Author of Tech Power Healing -The Future of Medicine in the AI Age.
I am writing a book with Harvey Castro, MD, MBA. and?Alan?Smithson .?
The Book’s current draft title is:?2030: 5 Decades of Transformation in Only 5 Years
I will be writing 5 Chapters,
1.???? Future of AI, Robotics and Work in 2030
2.???? Transportation in 2030
3.???? Communication in 2030
4.???? Energy and Climate 2030
5.???? Avoiding the Most Avoidable Deaths - AI’s Quest to Save Millions and Billions of Lives in the 21st Century
One definition of AGI and ASI will be when it can solve specific problems that humans could not solve without AI.
"AGI, A.K.A. powerful AI, A.K.A. Super Useful AI" - Lex Fridman (02:17:11)
I’m going to start calling it [AGI] that [Super Useful AI]" Dario Amodei
Super Useful AI (SUAI) - Not Just Knowing the Answers on a Test but Using AI to Solve Problems: Disease/Health, Energy/Environment, Education, War, Poverty, Food/Water/Hunger/Shelter.
This is my view on when we will know AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for each topic and my predictions for AI in 2030 and beyond.? AI functionality will not happen all at once, but it will be gradual – emergent. ?The 2020s-2040s will be an amazing time to be alive to experience this transition.? We live in interesting times.
Definition
“Intelligence: ability to accomplish complex goals,”?- Max Tegmark, Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
AI: enabling a machine or system to sense, reason, act, or adapt like a human - Achieving Complex Goals
Symbolic/Expert Systems: a knowledge base of facts and rules to make decisions
Machine Learning (ML):? involves training algorithms to learn from data and make predictions or decisions.
Main differences between ML and traditional symbolic reasoning are where the learning happens. In machine- and deep-learning, the algorithm learns rules as it establishes correlations between inputs and outputs. In symbolic reasoning, the rules are created through human intervention.
How OECD countries updated the definition?Here are the revisions to the current text of the definition of “AI System” in detail, with additions set out in?bold?and subtractions in?strikethrough):
An AI system is a machine-based system that, for explicit or implicit?objectives,?infers, from the input it receives, how to generate outputs such as?predictions,?content,?recommendations, or decisions?that?can?influence?physical?or virtual environments.?Different?AI systems?are vary?in their?levels of autonomy?and adaptiveness after deployment.
"AGI = artificial general intelligence = a machine that performs at the level of an average (median) human.
ASI = artificial superintelligence = a machine that performs at the level of an expert human in practically any field." Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI – Dr Alan D. Thompson – LifeArchitect.ai
AGI and ASI functionality will be gradual as humans learn to use the very powerful tools of AI, as AI becomes much more powerful over the next 20 years to help humans be much more productive.? To do jobs that are dangerous, difficult, dirty and dull.? To maximize the “Middle zone … for us humans where the machines are helping us, but humans are still indispensable to creating value.” This will be the amplification of human ability to provide abundance for humanity so that humans can do the work they find most interesting and meaningful for the benefit of humanity.
“Middle zone is kind of a nice one for us humans where the machines are helping us, but humans are still indispensable to creating value …, that's a zone where you can have higher productivity, more wealth and performance, but also more likely to have shared prosperity because labor is sort of inherently distributed" -?Erik?Brynjolfsson from transcripts/Stanford_ECON295?CS323_I_2024_I_The_Age_of_AI,_Eric_Schmidt.txt at main · ociubotaru/transcripts · GitHub
As reported in “The Rundown AI”, “OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just?predicted ?that artificial general intelligence will be achieved in 2025, In an?interview ?with YC founder Gary Tan, Altman said the path to AGI is ‘basically clear’ and will require engineering, not new scientific breakthroughs. Altman’s prediction would mean a drastic leap in the company’s?AGI scale ?(currently level 2 of 5)”
As Dario Amodei (02:20:00) stated in the podcast?Dario Amodei: Anthropic CEO on Claude, AGI & the Future of AI & Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #452 https://lnkd.in/gNafi4hU
AGI timeline
Lex Fridman(02:17:11) ?So what to you is the timeline to where we achieve AGI, A.K.A. powerful AI, A.K.A. super useful AI?
Dario Amodei(02:17:22) ?I’m going to start calling it that.
Lex Fridman(02:17:24) ?It’s a debate about naming. On pure intelligence smarter than a Nobel Prize winner in every relevant discipline and all the things we’ve said
"If you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there [to AGI] by 2026 or 2027. Again, lots of things could derail it. We could run out of data. We might not be able to scale clusters as much as we want. Maybe Taiwan gets blown up or something, and then we can’t produce as many GPUs as we want. So there are all kinds of things that could derail the whole process. So I don’t fully believe the straight line extrapolation, but if you believe the straight line extrapolation, we’ll get there [to AGI] in 2026 or 2027. I think the most likely is that there are some mild delay relative to that. I don’t know what that delay is, but I think it could happen on schedule. I think there could be a mild delay."
For the 5 chapters I will be writing, the following is when we will know AGI/ASI has arrived for each topic.? Let me know your thoughts on these predictions and my definition of AGI/ASI?? What would you add? What would you change?? Sam Altman is more aggressive on his dates.? We shall see if I am too conservative.
Future of AI, Robotics and Work in 2030
“You see the computer revolution everywhere except the productivity statistics.” - Robert Solow,
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will arrive for Work when AI/Robotics can increase each human productivity by 5x using AI. Perform >25% of jobs with limited human supervision.? Robots can work <$15 per hour for 50% of jobs, increase overall productivity by >50% for >50% of industries.
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for Work when AI/Robotics can increase >90% each humans productivity by 10x using AI.? Perform >75% of jobs with limited to no human supervision.? Robots can work <$10 per hour for 75% of jobs, increase overall productivity by >200% for >90% of industries. Eliminate the need for humans to do jobs that are dangerous, difficult, dirty and dull.? Help humans create or find jobs that are meaningful, fulfilling and interesting to each human.
Update from ChatGPT - AGI Dario Lex Alan Doug GPT
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) for Work
Prediction:
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) for Work
Prediction:
“In this world with super powerful AI that’s increasingly automated, what’s the source of meaning for us humans? Work is a source of deep meaning for many of us. Where do we find the meaning?” Lex Fridman (02:36:45) ?
“I think a world is possible with powerful AI that not only has as much meaning for everyone, but that has more meaning for everyone that can allow everyone to see worlds and experiences that it was either possible for no one to see or a possible for very few people to experience. So I am optimistic about meaning.” Dario Amodei (02:40:21) ?
Economists are familiar with studying the productivity increases that came from the computer revolution and internet revolution. And generally those productivity increases were underwhelming. They were less than you might imagine. There was a quote from Robert Solow, “You see the computer revolution everywhere except the productivity statistics.” So why is this the case? People point to the structure of firms, the structure of enterprises, how slow it’s been to roll out our existing technology to very poor parts of the world, which I talk about in the essay. How do we get these technologies to the poorest parts of the world that are behind on cell phone technology, computers, medicine, let alone newfangled AI that hasn’t been invented yet.” Dario Amodei (02:12:07) ?
"I think we're going to live in a world where there are going to be hundreds of millions, billions of different AI agents. Eventually probably more AI agents than there are people in the world" ?- Mark?Zuckerberg
Transportation in 2030
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will arrive for Transportation when 50% of vehicles sold can operate at Level 4 SAE High Automation: The car can operate without human intervention at a cost <$10K, <$0.40 per mile. Traffic accidents and fatalities decrease by 90% for these vehicles. Overall road deaths decrease by <50%. CO2 emissions have dropped by 50% for the transportation sector.
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for Transportation when 90% of vehicles sold can operate at Level 5 SAE Full Automation: No human driver is needed; the car can handle all driving tasks under all conditions at a cost <$5K, <$0.20 per mile. Traffic accidents and fatalities decrease by 99% for these vehicles.? Overall road deaths decrease by <90%.? 5 years later 0 road deaths (from current 1.3M road deaths today).? CO2 emissions have dropped by 90% for the transportation sector.
Update from ChatGPT - AGI Dario Lex Alan Doug GPT
AGI/ASI Criteria for Transportation with Timeline Predictions from AGI Dario Lex Alan Doug GPT - AGI ASI Timeline and Criteria
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) for Transportation
Updated Criteria:
Prediction:
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) for Transportation
Updated Criteria:
Prediction:
Key Observations:
Communication in 2030
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will arrive for Communication when there will be1 Billion on-device AI smartphone users having instant access to AGI intelligence – 5 years later, 5 billion users.? 1 Billion Telepresence Humans - doing >25% of activities virtually that was done via travel. 1 Billion Students having access to >100 mbps broadband service - Telelearning at least 50% of the Time. 1 Billion Telemedicine Medicine Visits per year
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for Communication when Everyone will have a > 1 Gbps AI communication device that covers the globe because communication and information will be too cheap to meter.
Energy and Climate 2030
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will arrive for energy when AI helps create a smart grid (Intelligent Grid) that achieves the UN Access to electricity – SDG7: Energy goal is met of SDG > 92.7% of humanity, Access to affordable, reliable, sustainable & modern energy; >5 Billion people – has access to energy – <$0.1 per kWh, >20,000 kWh per capita per year and 50% reduction in CO2 emissions.
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for energy when > 8 Billion people – >90% reduction in CO2 emissions – <$0.02 per kWh, >40,000 kWh per capita per year.? Basically ~everyone is high income because energy, communication and information is too cheap to meter.
Avoiding the Most Avoidable Deaths - AI’s Quest to Save Millions and Billions of Lives in the 21st Century
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will arrive for healthcare when AI can save at least 1 million lives in a year; then 5 years later, save 5 million lives in a year; then 5 years later, save 10 million lives in a year; then 5 years later, save 20 million lives in a year. Lower the death rate of people under 30 by 50%. Reduce the disability rate by 50%. Restores muscle, cognitive, and immune function by a minimum of 10 years, in persons aged 50-80 years
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) will arrive for healthcare when AI can save at least 1 Billion Lives Total and reduce the disability rate by 90%. Lower the death rate of people under 30 by 90%. Restores muscle, cognitive, and immune function by a minimum of 30 years, in persons aged 50-80 years. 1 Billion Global population aged 100 years-old or over, and can do things like snow ski, bike 100 miles in a day, wake surf, hike 5 miles, and do the things they find important and be surrounded by those they love.
“Never again will there be in it an infant who lives but a few days, or an old man who does not live out his years; the one who dies at a hundred will be thought a mere child; the one who fails to reach a hundred will be considered accursed." - Isaiah 65:20
These are the predictions made for each of the chapters - this is a work in progress
Predictions for AI, Robotics and Work in 2030
AI-Driven Organizational Structures: By 2040, Level 5 AI (as defined by OpenAI’s progress levels) could be capable of managing 25% of entire business functions autonomously. These AI-driven organizations will set new standards for efficiency, scalability, and innovation, effectively becoming the new operational backbone of businesses.
Predictions Transportation for 2030
·?????? Widespread Adoption of Autonomous Trucks: 5-20% of new heavy-duty trucks will be equipped with SAE Level 3 automation, enabling fully autonomous operation on highways without human intervention. This advancement will significantly enhance long-haul freight efficiency.
·?????? Reduction in Operational Costs: The integration of autonomous trucks is projected to decrease total operating costs by over 30%, primarily through savings on labor and fuel. This reduction will make freight transportation more cost-effective and competitive. BCG
·?????? Enhanced Safety and Reduced Accidents: The deployment of autonomous trucks is could to lower accident rates by 40%, as these vehicles can operate without fatigue and are equipped with advanced safety systems, leading to safer highways. ?BCG
Predictions for 2040
·?????? 90% of ALL vehicles will support Automated Driving (SAE Level 3 or greater), with drivers engaging it for 90% of their commute time, allowing for activities like reading or working, saving an estimated 55 minutes daily to do other things while in the car.???Autonomous Vehicles: 20% of new vehicles sold will be SAE Level 4/5, allowing nearly full automation during commutes and daily travel.
·?????? 50% Reduction in ALL Accidents:?Automated/Autonomous technology will lead to a 50% decrease in ALL traffic accidents, dramatically lowering fatalities and insurance costs.
·?????? 100 Million Weekly Robotaxi Rides: Robotaxi services will expand, accounting for 50% of all global ridesharing trips.
·?????? Dominance of Autonomous Freight Transport: By 2040, autonomous trucks will handle 60% of all freight transportation, with a significant portion operating without human drivers, thereby optimizing logistics and supply chain operations.
·?????? Further Reduction in Accidents: The continued advancement and integration of autonomous technology are anticipated to result in a 50% reduction in traffic accidents involving trucks, contributing to overall road safety. BCG
·?????? Environmental Benefits: The widespread use of autonomous trucks, many of which will be electric or utilize alternative fuels, is expected to reduce carbon emissions from freight transport by 25%, supporting global sustainability goals.
Predictions Communication for the Next 20 Years
Predictions Energy and Climate 2030
Predictions for Avoiding the Most Avoidable Deaths - AI’s Quest to Save Millions and Billions of Lives in the 21st Century'
·?????? 1 Million lives saved per year due to AI in 2030
·?????? 1 Billion people using AI for healthcare to reduce medical errors saving 1 Million lives a year (3 Million today but could go up as there is a higher population of the elderly with literacy / case management?/ cognitive challenges) - Predicted 2033
·?????? 10 Million lives saved per year due to AI in 2040
·?????? 1 billion people using AV to reduce traffic accidents saving 1 Million lives a year (1.3 Million today but may go to 2M before?going down) - prediction 2043
·?????? 1 Billion lives saved in 21st Century using AI
·?????? 5% reduction in humans with disabilities (50 Million People) in 2030 because of AI
·?????? 25% reduction in humans with disabilities (250 Million People) in 2040 because of AI
Conclusion
The journey toward AGI/ASI will not be defined by a single groundbreaking moment but by a series of gradual, emergent advancements over the next two decades. This transformative period will fundamentally reshape industries, redefine human potential, and push the boundaries of what we believe is possible. Rather than a sudden leap, the transition will be an intricate dance between innovation, adoption, and the evolution of human and machine collaboration.
By 2030, we are likely to see AGI-enabled systems revolutionizing work, transportation, communication, energy, and healthcare. From AI-powered task engines boosting productivity and autonomous vehicles saving lives to renewable energy grids and life-saving healthcare solutions, AGI’s capabilities will begin to bridge the gap between human ambition and technological feasibility. These advancements will lay the foundation for ASI’s arrival, heralding an era where intelligence surpasses human cognition and exponentially accelerates progress.
However, this future is not without its challenges. Societies must grapple with ethical, social, and economic implications—ranging from job displacement to data privacy and global inequality. Collaboration across governments, industries, and academia will be critical in ensuring the responsible development of AI technologies that amplify human potential without compromising societal well-being.
The potential of AGI and ASI is immense, offering unprecedented opportunities to enhance human lives, address global challenges, and unlock new realms of exploration and discovery. Yet, the true measure of success will not be the creation of machines that surpass us but the cultivation of systems that elevate humanity. As we embark on this transformative journey, it is imperative to focus not only on what these technologies can do but also on how they can serve as tools for a more beneficial, sustainable, and meaningful future. The best days of human and AI collaboration are yet to come.
Note: Written with the use of AI tools but prompted and edited by me.
In the song "SIXTEEN?TONS | Low Bass Singer Cover ," the lyrics "You load?sixteen?tons, and what do you get.”? Consider that machines can do the work of 400 men that no human wants to do – this is amplification of humanity.? If a Job is Difficult, Dangerous, Dirty or Dull, Give it to the Robot or AI.
This stark difference highlights why heavy lifting in industries relies heavily on machinery to maximize productivity and minimize human strain and risk of injury.
Sixteen?Tons (AI and Robotics Remix) reimagines the story with AI and robotics, focusing on abundance, safety, and prosperity for the worker. This new version flips the narrative from hardship to opportunity, where technology plays a key role in transforming lives.? This is the world I want to live in
Verse 1: Some people say a job’s just a job, but I say no, I’ve got robots and AI, watchin' the show. They’re workin' round the clock, never take a break, And I’m sittin' back with all the cash I make.
Chorus: You lift?sixteen?tons, but I lift none, AI does the work while I have fun. St. Peter, don’t you call me 'cause I’m doin' just fine, With tech on my side, all the wealth is mine.
Verse 2: I used to break my back just to earn my pay, Now I’ve got machines that do it all day. No more sweat and tears, just algorithms run, Turnin' toil into treasures, the future’s begun.
Chorus: You lift?sixteen?tons, but I lift none, AI does the work while I have fun. St. Peter, don’t you call me 'cause I’m doin' just fine, With tech on my side, all the wealth is mine.
Verse 3: No more debts to pay, no bosses to please, Just a click and a code, and I do as I please. Automation's king, and the future is bright, Got the power of the bots, and I'm livin' it right.
Chorus: You lift?sixteen?tons, but I lift none, AI does the work while I have fun. St. Peter, don’t you call me 'cause I’m doin' just fine, With tech on my side, all the wealth is mine.
Bridge: With data and code, I control my fate, In the land of abundance, there’s no more wait. From the mines to the stars, we’ve changed the game, AI and robots, they’ve made the claim.
Chorus: You lift?sixteen?tons, but I lift none, AI does the work while I have fun. St. Peter, don’t you call me 'cause I’m doin' just fine, With tech on my side, all the wealth is mine.
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