CRISTOBAL NOW SET TO EMERGE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
Tropical Depression CRISTOBAL has looped around the Yucatan Peninsula, and is now expected to swing back over warmer waters as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.. Swept up in a moist, southerly flow, CRISTOBAL is forecast to move northward into the Gulf on Saturday and Sunday. Despite some wind shear factors and dry air, CRISTOBAL is expected to regain some of its strength as it moves North. Models disagree on if CRISTOBAL will end up as a moderate or strong tropical storm prior to landfall.
CRISTOBAL is forecast to travel northward through the weekend and make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana Gulf coast during the early morning hours on Monday. The storm’s interaction with the Yucatan has widened the storm’s diameter, making it exceptionally large for a tropical storm. Back over water, CRISTOBAL will expand even further as it intensifies back into a tropical storm, especially to the east, where southerly moisture will become caught in Cristobal’s circulatation.
HEADSUP: This could create a rare tropical storm in which the worst weather conditions will occur at large distances from its center.
Interests along the central Gulf coast will begin to experience Cristobal’s approach 24 hours or more prior to landfall. Tropical force winds, sporadic heavy rainfall, especially to the east of the storm’s center – will arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Conditions will continue to deteriorate thereafter, with tropical downpours and strong, gusty winds raking the coast prior to and at landfall. Storm surge and tropical storm watches likely will be issued for a portion of the Gulf coast later today.
Travel disruptions can be expected, both on land and in the air through at least Monday evening. If you are in or near the projected path of Tropical Depression Cristobal, closely monitor the storm’s progress this weekend. Cristobal will affect a large area of the Gulf coastline with tropical storm force weather as it nears landfall. Be ready to rush preparations and comply with the recommendations of local public safety officials.
This will be our final advisory on Cristobal. Larry Wilson will be available with imminent storm threat analyses and counsel on Cristobal. He may be reached by e-mail at riskforecasting2@outlook.com or contact Caroline Hamilton at [email protected]
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