Crisis in Ukraine

Without a doubt, the situation in Ukraine is very serious, endangering peace and stability in Europe, a continent with a vast history of wars and destruction. Ignoring or manipulating historical facts could push Europe into another war of unpredictable consequences. How could this situation be avoided? The following five elements should be considered when the crisis in Ukraine is analyzed:

·????????The opinion of the Ukraine people;

·????????The security of Russia;

·????????The security in Europe;

·????????The objectives of the US and NATO military policy;

·????????The role of the Western press in the Ukraine conflict.

During the last few months, the US, the EU, NATO, and the Western press have been dramatizing the real situation in Ukraine and the threat of a Russian invasion of this country in order to justify the political, economic, and military support that the US, the EU, and several NATO countries are offering to the Ukrainian government.

However, the real objectives to be achieved by the US, the EU, and NATO countries in the Ukraine crisis is, on the one hand, to use the Ukraine crisis to apply additional economic sanctions to stop at any cost, the economic and military development of Russia and, on the other, to impede that this country plays in the future an active role in world issues.

The following are some elements that should be carefully considered when analyzing the Ukrainian crisis:

1-?????Ukraine has a long and troubled history. After years of domination and unrest, after the Bolshevik Revolution, Ukraine declared complete independence in January 1918. However, soviet troops gained control of Ukraine, which became one of the republics of the USSR in 1922. In July 1990, the Ukrainian parliament passed a declaration of sovereignty, and in August 1991, Ukraine was declared to be independent of the USSR.

2-?????The US and NATO have flagrantly failed to comply with the agreements reached, first with the USSR?and after with Russia following the disappearance of the USSR in 1991, on the expansion of NATO to the east. Taking advantage of Russia's economic and military weakness and instability during the 1990s and violating the commitments adopted on this important subject for Russia's security, NATO proceeded to incorporate several former socialist countries from Central and Eastern Europe, along with the Baltic states, bringing NATO borders dangerously close to Russian borders.

3-?????In the current Ukraine crisis, the US, the EU, NATO, and the Western media have ignored the existence of these commitments and have created a war hysteria in the region to justify the political and military positions of the US, the EU, and NATO countries against Russia.

4-?????Which are these commitments? President George H W Bush assured Gorbachev during the Malta summit in December 1989 that the US would not take advantage of the revolutions in Eastern Europe to harm Soviet legitimizes interests, and the Russians sadly believed it, even though the whole world knows that the commitments that the US assume in the international arena are very fragile and always subject to its national politics.

Another concrete assurance from Western leaders about NATO expansion to the east came on January 31, 1990, when West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher made it clear that the changes in Eastern Europe and the process of German unification must not lead to an undermining of Soviet security interests. Therefore, NATO should rule out an expansion of the territories of its member states to the east, bringing NATO borders closer to the Soviet borders. No Western and NATO countries remember these commitments assumed first with the USSR and after with Russia by the US and NATO countries.

5-?????The Crimea annexation. The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, after the coup in Ukraine and the country's own political instability, has been used by the US, NATO, the EU, and other Western countries as a pretext to adopt additional economic sanctions against Russia because the ones already in force have demonstrated that are not enough to weaken Russia. A strong Russia would jeopardize the US hegemony in Europe and other parts of the world, increasingly questioned after the US disaster withdrawal from Afghanistan. The situation could become worse for the US and other Western countries if the current relationship between China and Russia becomes stronger.

When the Western countries and press talks about the Russian annexation of Crimea, they omit the following historical facts: Romans, Goths, Huns, Alans, and Genoese took control of the small peninsula of Crimea until 1475 when the Turks invaded the peninsula. The Turks, helped by Tatar princes, maintained their control on Crimea until 1783, when the Russian Empire annexed the peninsula. In other words, Crimea has been Russian territory since 1783, even before the existence of the USSR and Ukraine. After the Russian Revolution of 1917, and after the accession to power of the communists in Crimea in 1921, it became an autonomous republic within the USSR and not within Ukraine.

In 1954, Crimea's autonomy status was reduced and was ceded by the USSR to the Ukrainian SSR, that is to say, that the USSR ceded Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, and it is from that year that Ukraine, as part of the USSR, included Crimea within its territory. In 1991, shortly after the dissolution of the USSR, Russia annulled the cession and demanded the return of the territories ceded to Ukraine by the former USSR, including Crimea.

6-?????After the failures of the invasions of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and the resounding political and military debacle in Afghanistan in 2021, to mention the most recent military conflicts in which the US and other NATO countries were involved, it was essential for them to seek for a new focus of political and military tension that would restore confidence in the military power of the US and NATO. Undoubtedly, Ukraine was the most appropriate place to achieve that goal because the conflict takes place precisely in a country on the European continent, where NATO countries can be directly involved, in addition to Russia. In reality, what the US, the EU, and NATO countries have done is to use the threat of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, exaggerated by the Western press led by the US, to supply Ukrainian military forces with the military hardware and resources that the Ukrainian government needs to resolve the Donbass conflict using military force, ignoring the Minsk agreements for a political and diplomatic solution of the conflict in the east of the country with a majority of Russian origin, pushing Russia to intervene in the conflict. Until today, Western countries and the press did not criticize the Ukrainian position, concentrating all the attacks on Russian behavior. It is not difficult to demonstrate that the Ukrainian government has not only ignored the main points of the Minsk agreements but refused to implement them.

7-?????After the coup of 2014, civil revolts organized by pro-Russian citizens took place in the eastern Ukrainian region of the Donbass, involving the provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk, which represent 5% of the Ukrainian territory with a majority of Russian origin. The separatists founded the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, which were within the Ukrainian Republic until February 22, 2022. The clashes between the Ukrainian military forces and pro-Russian militias intensified, increasing the number of casualties on both sides. By mid-2014, the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)) met in Minsk, Belarus's capital, to seek a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis in eastern Ukraine.

8-?????The successive military defeats of the Ukrainian military forces in the Donbass region forced President Petró Poroshenko to seek a peaceful solution to this crisis. Between July 31 and September 5, the Trilateral Contact Group and the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics representatives met, and as a result of these contacts, the "Minsk I Agreement" was adopted. This agreement was signed in September 2014 by all parties. The following are, among others, the main points:

·????????Secure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.

·????????Ensure monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE.

·????????Decentralization of power, including through the approval of Ukrainian law on "Interim Local Government Arrangements in Some Areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts (regions)" ("Law on Special Status").

·????????Ensure permanent monitoring of the Russian-Ukrainian border and its verification by the OSCE by creating security zones in the border regions between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

·????????Immediate release of all those kidnapped and of all those illegally detained.

·????????A law on the prevention of persecution and punishment of persons related to the events that have taken place in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts, except in cases of crimes that are considered serious.

·????????The continuation of the inclusive national dialogue.

·????????Taking measures to improve the humanitarian situation in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.

·????????Ensuring the early conduct of local elections, following the Ukrainian law (agreed in this protocol) on "Interim Local Government Arrangements in Some Areas of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts" ("Law on Special Status").

·????????Withdrawal of illegal armed groups, military equipment, as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine.

·????????Approval of the economic recovery and reconstruction program for the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.

·????????Guarantee the personal safety of the participants in the negotiations.

Despite efforts to maintain peace in the region, both sides resumed fighting - albeit sporadic - two weeks later.

9-?????After observing that the Ukrainian government was not implementing the Minsk I Agreement, the parties signed a memorandum to avoid the beginning of military operations. They agreed, among others, on the following:

·????????To remove the existing heavy weapons in the Donbass region (at least 15 km from the front);

·?????????To create a 30 km demilitarized zone;

·?????????The withdrawal of all non-military personnel participating in the conflict.

Again, everything agreed was blown up when the second battle for Donetsk International Airport began.

10-??Failing to implement the Minsk I Agreement, Ukraine and Russia invited other states to help them end the Ukraine crisis, which seemed to be going backward instead of advancing. The so-called "Normandy Quartet" was established, made up of the presidents of Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine. The Normandy Quartet met on February 11 and 12, 2015, in Minsk, and from their talks, the "Minsk II Agreement" was adopted given to the OSCE the responsibility of its implementation. A "Package of Measures" was adopted with 13 actions. Among these actions were the following:

·????????The cessation of hostilities;

·????????The creation of a 50 km security zone;

·????????Amnesty for those persons convicted of having a connection with the events;

·????????The establishment of a humanitarian corridor;

·????????The granting of special status to certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

In turn, Ukraine undertook to amend its constitution to incorporate these measures. This reform was approved in August 2015 but generated unrest in certain parts of Ukrainian society, leading to violent protests in Kyiv. The Normandy Quartet came together again in December 2019 but failed to stop the confrontation between Ukraine, Russia, and the representatives of the Donbass region. Russia condemned Ukraine for failing to comply with what was agreed in 2014 and 2015, while the US, the EU, and NATO countries accused Russia of doing the same.

11-??Without the threat of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war hysteria promoted by the main Western media, it would have been much more difficult for the US and its European and NATO allies to justify, before the international community and of their own public opinion, the political and military support given to Ukraine, since this country is not part of the EU or NATO, and the main responsible for the failure of the Minsk I and II agreements, the only realistic mechanism to solve the Ukraine crisis without the partition of the country and the eventual deployment of Russian troops in the Donbass region.

12-??The withdrawal of non-essential diplomatic personnel and the call for citizens of the US and other Western countries to leave Ukraine under the pretext of an imminent Russian invasion could be considered a smokescreen that would hide the real possibility that the conflict with the separatist regions is resolved by military force by the Ukrainian government, which have been moving all the military hardware delivered by the US and some NATO countries to the conflict zone in a clear violation of the Minks agreements. To increase the tension to a new level, the Russian government has decided to withdraw the non-essential diplomats from Kyiv, and the Ukraine government is considering the rupture of its diplomatic relations with Russia.

13-??It is true that the Russian government has mobilized more than 130.000 troops and deployed them within its territory but close to the Ukrainian border. Besides, more than 30.000 Russian troops have been deployed in Belarus to carry out joint military maneuvers with Belarus's army. There should be no doubt that the Russian government is ready to use these troops to protect its citizens in the Donbass region if the Ukrainian government decides to use military force to solve the conflict in that region, particularly after the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics by the Russian government and the Duma, and the authorization given to the Russian government to sent troops abroad. If this happens, then the situation in Ukraine will become extremely dangerous for the whole region, with unpredictable consequences for international and regional peace, stability, and security.

It is important to single out that tens of thousands of Russian citizens live in the Donbass region. Besides, more than a million people living in this region have already applied for Russian citizenship, creating a very difficult situation for the Russian government if the Ukrainian government decides to use military force to solve the problem in the eastern part of the country.

Without a doubt, any action that Russia could carry out to protect Russian citizens in the Donbass region will be used by the US and NATO countries to classify them as a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US, the EU, and NATO countries will use this situation to adopt additional drastic economic and political sanctions against Russia, which is definitely what the US and NATO have wanted to do since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis eight years ago. They would also hold Russia responsible for the death of the Ukrainian people and the massive displacement of Ukrainian citizens from the conflict zones to other European countries in search of protection, as many people of the Donbass region are now doing with Russia.

14-??The US is aware that if a war breaks out in Ukraine, all military actions will take place far away from its own borders, will mainly affect Ukraine and some European countries with borders with that country but would help it to achieve its political, military, and economic objectives in its bilateral confrontation with Russia. President Biden has said that his administration will not send combat troops to Ukraine in case of a Russian invasion or the entry of Russian military forces in the Donbass region but has sent troops to some NATO countries near Ukraine but with little impact, if any, in the military situation of the region. Other NATO countries are also expected not to send combat troops to Ukraine in case of a Ukraine-Russia military conflict.

Therefore, in a Ukraine-Russian conflict, Ukraine would be left alone by the US, the EU, and NATO countries without any chance of coming out of that confrontation successfully, certainly with the Donbass region's loss and a serious negative economic impact on its economy.

15-??To avoid this happening, the only realistic solution to peacefully solve the Ukraine crisis is stopping the fight in the region, withdrawing all Russian and Ukrainian military forces to their permanent location, and implementing the Minsk agreements under a strict execution road map.

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