Crisis on the Caspian: Forecast and Preservation Strategy
Introduction:
Living my life breathing the Caspian Sea has been a privilege. Just have a look on this amazing sea view:
However, recent years have brought about a concerning trend – the rapid shallowing of the Caspian Sea. Below I’ll go into the causes behind this phenomenon, offering short-term and long-term forecast, assessing the impact on the oil and gas industry in the region, and proposing strategies for stabilizing the situation.
Significant sea level drop
From 2006 the Caspian Sea has been faced with issue – a significant drop in water levels. This issue, as shallowing, poses significant challenges to the region's ecology and raises alarms for the communities that depend on its resources.
The local and global news reports are increasingly full of headlines on this topic as well:
The ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea has significant impact on critical infrastructure, particularly logistics and the oil and gas industry. The diminishing water levels pose challenges to port facilities, hindering maritime logistics and commerce as well as O&G offshore facilities at North of Caspian Sea.
As the Caspian Sea's waters recede, adapting infrastructure and energy strategies becomes paramount. The implications extend beyond environmental concerns, emphasizing the urgency for integrated solutions to sustain the economic and industrial activities dependent on this expansive body of water.
Understanding the Caspian Sea
The Caspian Sea, Earth's largest enclosed water body, with 130 rivers, including major ones like the Volga, Ural, Terek, Sulak, and Emba, flowing into it, the sea's water level is influenced by a balance of inflow and evaporation due to its closed nature.
Historical measurements since 1837 show fluctuations, from the highest in 1882 to the lowest in 1977. Recent trends indicate a significant drop since 2006, with a 30-centimeter decrease in 2021 and a cumulative 119-centimeter drop since 2005.
Scientists attribute these changes to climate and human factors, with climate-induced alterations in the sea's basin and waters being the main driver. The Caspian Sea's delicate water balance, with 200 mm of annual precipitation and 980 mm of evaporation, is tilting towards a deficit.
Factors Influencing Water Levels
Scientists identify three main factors affecting the Caspian Sea's water levels: climate, human activities, and geological. Climate change, particularly within the Caspian basin, is the primary driver, influencing precipitation and evaporation rates. Human activities, including dam construction and changes in the Volga River basin, significantly alter water dynamics, leading to unstable water seasons and disruptions in river flows. Geological factors play a minor role in comparison. Understanding these influences is crucial for managing the Caspian Sea's water balance and ensuring its long-term health.
The Volga River impact
The major Caspian Sea water source is Volga River, serving as the primary contributor to the sea's inflow. Over the 80% of the rivers discharge is camming from Volga. Comparing the volume of the Volga's flow in the past 10-12 years with the fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level reveals a direct correlation, highlighting the significant influence of the river's water discharge on the sea's water levels.
The Volga River is a heart of Russia, its waters host critical infrastructure such as hydroelectric power stations, reservoirs, and more. These infrastructures exert anthropogenic influence on the river's discharge.
领英推荐
The interplay between human activities along the Volga and its impact on the Caspian Sea is evident, as demonstrated by the correlation between the water levels of the sea and the flow of the Volga.
In recent years, Russian media has frequently reported on decreasing water levels in the Volga River due to periods of drought. This amplifies concerns about the water balance, given the river's pivotal role in sustaining the Caspian Sea.
Understanding the dynamics of the Volga River is essential for comprehending the broader factors influencing the Caspian Sea's water levels and underscores the importance of sustainable water management practices in this vital region.
Climate impact
Referring to a climate model study performed in 2022 within the the international conference "Climate Change in the Caspian Sea Region," annual and seasonal variations in the regional climate and water balance of the Caspian Sea were examined. The study also explored potential connections with the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Using the CESM1.2.2 climate model and climate forecasts up to 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, the researchers found that NAO remains a key factor in winter variability in the Caspian region, influencing precipitation patterns in its watershed.
The study suggests that the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Caspian Sea region will increase if global warming remains moderate (RCP4.5) but will diminish if warming intensifies (RCP8.5). In both warming scenarios, increased evaporation will gradually lead to a reduction in the Caspian Sea water level. Despite increased precipitation in the northern part of the Volga River basin, heightened evaporation results in a negative water balance and additional sea level decrease, ranging from 9 meters (RCP4.5) to 18 meters (RCP8.5), or 16 meters with model evaporation offset correction.
Conclusion and forecast
The Caspian Sea has unique origin and distinctive features that shows a periodic dynamic of rising and falling water levels, a behavior considered normal and observed throughout its history. There is no basis to believe that this dynamic will change in the near future. However, the significant influence of global climate change is undeniable, with worldwide warming accelerating the evaporation of water and reducing the discharge from major rivers.
Based on the presented data, the short-term forecast suggests a continued dropping of sea levels over the next 2-5 years by 1-2.5 meters. Industries are reccomended to urgently undertake preparatory measures, such as dredging, to safeguard critical infrastructure.
Long-term forecast: By 2026, a reduction in the rate of shallowing is anticipated, leading to a stabilization of water levels. Subsequently, a gradual reversal could occur, resulting in the gradual rise of the Caspian Sea's water levels in the future. There is possible to reach water level up to -27m maximum in 2060.
Preservation Strategies
Caring for the Caspian Sea is a complex misson, requiring both engineering and diplomatic efforts. To maintaine the ecosystem in this region, significant collaboration among all Caspian-bordering countries required.
The primary and evident measure to preserve sea levels involves strict control over the water resources of the Volga River. It is imperative to regulate the discharge volumes from hydroelectric power stations in a manner that ensures an annual river discharge of not less than 280 cubic kilometers. Additionally, comprehensive measures are required to restore the water balance in the ecosystems of the Volga River basin.
The drainage of swamps, deforestation, and the reduction of water protection zones lead to instability in water seasons. Previously, water was retained in swamps and forests during spring, protecting rivers from drying up in summer. However, the destruction of these crucial ecosystems results in spring floods and summer water shortages.
Another crucial measure involves closing the passage of water into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay in Turkmenistan to reduce the total sea evaporation area. This will help preserve the outflow of 8–25 cubic kilometers of water. The Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay, extensive in territory but shallow (with an average depth of 3-4 meters), essentially acts as a large water evaporator without significant social relevance in the region.
This isn't a new solution; in March 1980, to reduce the Caspian water drop, the strait was dammed entirely, ceasing the flow into the bay. Although it led to some environmental challenges in the region (wind spreading salty dust to adjacent areas, causing soil salinization), since the early 1980s, the Caspian Sea's water level began to rise again.
In June 1992, the dam was completely removed, but the infrastructure for quick restoration is in place. The proposal is to reconstruct the dam on this bay, allowing physical control over the water passage to regulate it during years of shallowing and rising levels accordingly. This strategy combines ecological preservation with the sustainable management of water resources in the Caspian Sea region.
These measures may seem too much, but the objective is to preserve the greater at the cost of the lesser, preventing the entire sea...
Reference and links
From Autor
As an experienced Engineer in O&G, with a background in hydrology and meteorology as well, and the person who really care of the fate of the Caspian Sea, I'd like to share my experience and provide my service for any project that aimed the goal to safe Caspian Sea. I am open to collaboration and ready to join.