Crisis breakthrough!? Azerbaijan green energy expected to become the key to European energy independence?
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If there is anything colder than the weather, I believe a heavy bill will be the answer for many people.
At the same time, many people are worried about power cuts at any time. European countries are worried about what to do without energy from the north in the future? But before the dark night came a piece of good news. which is expected to break the icebound energy line.
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December 22 is the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere. Before the longest night, a preliminary agreement was reached on the submarine cable route plan connecting Europe from West Asia!
The leaders of the four countries have officially signed a cooperation agreement, which is expected to be put into use by the end of 2029. At that time, Western Asia will probably replace Russia and become another major energy import place in Europe.
However, based on the infrastructure of the energy source, it may be more effective to solve the current energy crisis as an energy hub than to export.
Black Sea Submarine Cable Project Signed
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement on 《Green Energy Development and Transport》 in Bucharest on the 17th.
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According to local media reports, the agreement will provide a financial and technical framework for the project of laying submarine cables in the Black Sea.
According to the plan, Azerbaijan, a "European country" with most of its territory in Asia, will transmit its green energy to Georgia through the power grid, then to Romania through the proposed Georgian Romanian Black Sea submarine cable, and to Hungary and other countries through the European power transport system.
According to reports, the 500 kV Georgian Romanian Black Sea submarine cable is more than 1100 kilometers long and costs about 2 billion euros.
Georgia has obtained the feasibility study fund for the project from the World Bank. The feasibility study plan will be completed by the end of 2023, and the cable is planned to be put into use by the end of 2029.
In the near future, the current energy structural problems in Europe can be solved to some extent. However, the completion of the project also further promoted the break of energy relations between Europe and Russia.
European Countries Agree on Natural Gas Price Limits
On the 19th, two days later, European energy ministers reached an agreement to urgently limit the price of natural gas if conditions were met.
The conditions are as follows: if the natural gas price in the main trading centers of the European Union remains above 180 euros (about 191 dollars) per megawatt hour for three consecutive days, and at the same time, it is more than 35 euros higher than the reference level of global LNG, the price ceiling will be implemented.
Obviously, combined with the attitude of the Kremlin before. Once the price limit is started, the energy relationship between Europe and Russia will inevitably break, so this agreement also has conditions. The European Commission said that if "risks outweigh benefits", it may suspend this measure. No one knows what impact this agreement will have, but at least it is forcing the government to put energy independence on the agenda.
Based on the analysis of the Black Sea submarine cable project mentioned at the beginning, the future energy import of Europe will focus on West Asia and even North Africa, which are indeed rich in green energy resources and are reasonable solutions to break the situation.
The average daily sunshine is 8.8 hours, adjacent to two major renewable energy countries
In terms of resources, in addition to nearly 60% of the world's oil and 45% of the world's natural gas reserves, West Asia and North Africa also have an average daily sunshine time of 8.8 hours. The vast desert plateau and Mediterranean coastal areas all contain great potential for the development of solar energy. Among them, Iran and Türkiye, as neighbors of Azerbaijan, are both forefront in the field of renewable energy in West Asia.
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Iran:
From 2008 to 2009, Iran has occupied the second largest share (18%) of renewable energy in West Asia and North Africa. By 2022, Iran also plans to achieve 5GW of renewable energy installed capacity within the year.
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According to the data of Iran's Ministry of Energy, renewable energy power generation currently accounts for nearly 7% of the total power generation in the country. Solar energy accounts for 44% of Iran's total installed capacity of renewable energy. 99.7% of the country's rural areas have been connected to the Internet and the rest will be completed within four years. (Data source: Tehran Times, February)
Türkiye:
According to the latest data this year, Türkiye ranks 12th in the world and 5th in Europe in terms of installed capacity of renewable energy. The share of wind and solar energy in its total power generation is 13.4%. As of January this year, the installed capacity of renewable energy in Türkiye has reached 53787 MW. This year, Türkiye is expected to have an installed capacity of 3050 MW, of which the installed capacity of solar energy is 2200 MW. (Data source: disclosed by Türkiye Embassy in China)
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It can be seen from the above that Azerbaijan has a unique location and obvious advantages as an energy hub. However, the development of renewable energy is only in the past two years, and the huge potential of renewable energy has not been fully developed. The export volume of renewable energy cannot meet the huge European market.
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According to the data of the World Bank, the installed capacity of power generation in Azerbaijan is 7.845 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of hydropower is 1.16 million kilowatts, and the total power generation capacity of other renewable energy sources is only 14.5 kilowatts (including wind energy, solar energy, small hydropower stations, etc.), which is obviously insufficient to support the huge European market. Moreover, the current energy structure of the country also mainly relies on natural gas for power generation.
Therefore, at the end of 2020, Azerbaijan's energy sector began to draw up four new plan, two of which are pilot projects cooperating with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with a total installed capacity of 440 MW. The pilot operation started at the end of April last year.
According to the report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the renewable energy potential of Azerbaijan is 27000 MW, of which the solar energy is 23000 MW. In Azerbaijan, Baku, Kur Araz lowlands, Absheron Peninsula and Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic are suitable for developing solar power projects. The government is planning to meet 30% of the total power demand through renewable energy by 2030, and can also export power to other countries. In the next few years, this photovoltaic market will usher in a development period.
Variable weather requirements
Of course, market feedback is also important to seize the first opportunity. The weather conditions in Azerbaijan are very rich.
The central and eastern parts of Azerbaijan have a dry climate. The southeast has abundant rainfall. Some regions even have annual rainfall of more than 1000mm. Some regions will have more snow. The annual wind volume in the Apsheren Peninsula is large. The name of Baku, the capital, means "City of Wind" in the local language. High temperature, strong wind and snowfall will affect the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic modules, so the product quality requirements are high.
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Entering 2023, a new round of business plans has been launched. In combination with the signing of this energy project, in addition to Azerbaijan, other countries along the project also have similar infrastructure conditions and opportunities, which may further extend your business options.
This weekend is also a traditional Christmas holiday. I believe many friends have already started their holidays. Here I wish you Merry Christmas in advance!
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