The CRIP Quad

A China - Russia - Iran - Pakistan (CRIP) grouping is a challenge. The task then for the Sherpas of the Democratic Quad (United States - Australia - India - Japan) is delineated, which is to use all available levers to weaken the Chinese relations with its three partners. China's potential Quad is flawed as it is founded on the foundation of limited common interests and rivalries, and it is not backed by compelling principles and values.

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Even as the Sherpas of the Democratic Quad - the United States, Japan, Australia, and India - prepare for a summit of the top leaders in Washington later in 2021, a rival quadrilateral grouping led by the principal challenger China is in the making, with Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. Fired by the hubris of the successful centenary of the Communist Party of China, China has been plotting its next moves on the geopolitical chessboard, and countering is one of them. The question that has now arisen is if there is a credible threat to the democratic Quad or not. Understanding China's coalescence with each actor of its potential Quad is instructive.

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Despite a complex and troubled past, in recent years, the China - Russia relationship has gone from strength to strength. The two define it as a comprehensive strategic partnership that can be turned into an alliance, if necessary. On June 1, the foreign ministers of China and Russia marked the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation. The treaty is viewed as a bulwark against the US-led West, and a pact of solidarity to perpetuate Sino - Russian pre-eminence and influence.?

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The two nations are neighbors and partners in the combat against Covid-19 and are deepening their cooperation in trade, economy, scientific research, and technological innovation. Russia supplies energy resources and shares defense technologies to China; In turn, the Chinese provide the Russians with the required capital, equipment, and goods. There are suspicions that China seeks Russian territory in the Far East and that Moscow has become a junior partner. These reservations are however kept in check for the larger needs of this relationship.?

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Western strategists are reflecting on ways to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, but this is easier said than done. There is a convergence between the Russian and Chinese governments and strategic communities. Sino - Russian relations are still not an alliance, but they are more than a partnership.?

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China's relationship with Pakistan, fuelled by a shared hostility towards India, is of a different depth altogether. In a joint statement on 25th November 2018, the two projected themselves as "good neighbors, close friends, iron brothers, and trusted partners" with an "All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership" from which Pakistan continuously draws political and economic dividends.

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China recognizes the central geostrategic location of Pakistan, and its value in keeping India pinned down to being only a regional player. Strategic congruence, economic benefits, and close security cooperation make up this relationship. It's attempted collaboration to counter the "three evils" of extremism, terrorism and separatism should not fool anyone, except to signal that Islamabad refrains from any action that hampers China in dealing harshly with its Muslim minority.?

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Since 2013, the China - Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with its generous fiscal package worth $62 billion covering projects in infrastructure, transport, energy, industry, and agriculture, has become the centerpiece of the relationship. Experts, however, point out that lately, the CPEC has lost some of its salience, as the Pakistan economy has failed to grow due to the absence of economic reforms as well as enhanced security challenges. Islamabad is now also enmeshed in working out its options in a post-US Afghanistan where it needs to reconcile its interests not only with China but also Iran, Russia, Central Asian neighbors, and to some extent, India. Pakistan will remain China's steadfast partner, but given its long-standing relationship with the US, it will also be responsive to Washington's overtures and offers of assistance in both the military and economic domains.

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The China - Iran relations are marked by a shared hostility towards the United States and are seeing signs of consolidation. In March 2021, the two agreed to a 25-year commitment to enhancing comprehensive economic cooperation. At the heart of this deal is China's plan to invest $400 million in Iranian projects against the long-term supply of oil and gas to China. The Iranians clarified that the agreement contained a roadmap but not any contract, figure, or exclusive rights to the other party. This agreement builds on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to support their core interests such as independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Iran's commitment to the One China policy.

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On the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), China has strived to present itself as a firm upholder of Iran's sovereignty and national dignity and has called on the US to return to JCPOA. The $400 million investment plan can be Iran's "insurance policy" for economic renewal if US sanctions continue and the US-China fight escalates.?

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These three relationships are vibrant, but also vulnerable. The Vladimir Putin - Joe Biden summit in Geneva demonstrated that Putin is willing to improve relations with the United States as well as the European Union. Iran continues to be interested in the JCPOA; if it materializes, it will increase US leverage. The steady friend Pakistan is unpredictable, but the army, the most powerful player, remains interested in measured normalization with Delhi.

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Thus to conclude, the nations of the Democratic Quad should strengthen themselves and the Sherpas should watch China's moves very carefully.?

- Aindri Abhishek Singh

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