Crime and the Corona Conundrum

By Rick Arrington April 2, 2020

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 23, 2020 that serious felonies had dropped by 17% during the March 16-March 22 time frame, as compared to the same time during the previous year.[1] Most crime researchers would indicate that a drop is likely to be reported in the most crime riddled communities as well. There has been a significant drop in homicides in the “windy city” as well as other metropolitan areas, but the cause is not necessarily what you might think. Our police officers are great at their jobs, but it is not their efforts that is creating this drop in crime. It is also not the result of policies implemented by city councils and governing bodies.

The COVID 19 spread has a large part to do with the reported drop but again, not in the way you might think. Criminals are not impacted by the “stay at home” orders as one might hope. They don’t care what the President or a Governor orders! Criminals are not trembling in fear that they might be infected by the virus, which motivates them to avoid being in public or committing their crimes. The truth is that crime is decreasing because there are fewer available targets and fewer opportunities. Robbers can’t rob, if there is no cash available in an open store or if there is no inattentive pedestrian in a tourist location. In other words, they commit their crime if there is no target.

Although some in law enforcement that view crime prevention efforts as ineffective, this decrease proves (or at least indicates) the value of crime prevention and opportunity reduction programs. We in the crime prevention field are often our own worst enemy in that we often fail to produce tangible research and proof that prevention techniques work. Many have repeated the mantra, “you can’t prove what you have prevented.”

Crime prevention is based upon multiple simple factors that are being demonstrated today during the inability for non-essential businesses to open. The very basic crime prevention technique is to reduce opportunities for criminals to commit their crimes. There is much more to this than my simplified approach here, but the absence of targets proves the point of opportunity reduction, although during normal times we would accomplish this through multiple means.

Let’s consider contributing factors to serious crimes of robbery, homicide, and other violent felonies. All of these require a victim, an ideal location and an offender. It should be clear how reducing the legitimate users of business and public space reduces victims, (targets) but the orders also impact motivated offenders. For instance, a large city with multiple criminal gangs frequently have a large contingent of their homicides committed during gang violence, or by criminal gangs. During normal times, groups can move freely in public without cause for police intervention, but under the current executive orders the numbers are limited, thus the likelihood of drawing attention to themselves is increased. Many of the more serious crimes are similarly linked to access to potential victims (targets) including drug sales, robbery from persons, sexual assault, etc.

Home burglary is likely to report a significant drop due to residents being at home. Most burglaries are not committed when persons are at home. Daytime burglaries are often due to a significant amount of the population’s home being empty during the workday. Most burglars avoid confrontation at all cost. Their motivation is different from the robber or other thieves. Business burglaries may not fare so well, but time will tell, as life returns to normal.

Now that we have the good news that serious felonies have dropped, we should recognize that there is always the proverbial bad news. The good news related to the opportunity reduction; the bad news is a bit more complicated.

We are almost certain to see an increase in domestic disputes and perhaps even suicide as a free people become put into what they may view as isolation in their own homes, as they lose jobs and purpose, and as their great financial gains dwindle away. America is unaccustomed to being thusly restricted, being told where you may go and what you may do, and stress levels may be on the increase because of these factors.

We must also recognize that criminals are resourceful and the longer we remain isolated at home by the government imposed orders, the more likely that certain other crimes will increase in prevalence. That said, the good crime prevention practitioner will begin their awareness campaign now to equip constituents to recognize the shift in criminal activity and to educate the constituent so that they don’t fall prey to the new tactics or crimes.

The COVID 19 orders have done as much to frighten citizens as to care for them. Citizens intuitively fear that criminals will become emboldened and desperate. This is proven by an 85% increase in gun sales reported in the United States by the F.B.I.  in March over the same time period in 2019. It is not an insignificant fact that the increase was during a time when some states had shut down gun sales as non-essential. Add to this growing fear the publicized increase in Governors trying to limit the number of persons incarcerated and the limitation of police response implemented to protect law enforcement, and one easily understands why citizens may find themselves concerned for their family’s safety. Now is the time for the crime prevention officer to step in and address changes in criminal tactics seriousness. I remind the practitioner that crime prevention is defines as the anticipation, recognition and appraisal of crime risk followed with actions to address the risk. Now, before we see the transition in the types of crime or an increase in violent crime associated with criminal desperation.

Some crimes which we may see be on the increase as criminals become desperate and the pandemic looms are:

• Home invasion robbery
• Business burglary
• Identity theft
• Frauds, especially those related to stimulus checks and charity associated with COVID 19
• Frauds based upon a promise of “new research” that lead to sales of Corona prevention medication or herbal cures

As a crime prevention practitioner, I must sound the alarm, we must sound the alarm. One of our roles is to heighten awareness about a likely increase in these crimes and then to provide crime prevention tips to our community to prevent their victimization.

Finally, all law enforcement must plan for the bursting bubble of crime once the stay at home orders are lifted and a target rich environment at malls, tourist locations and other locations ideal for an opportunist criminal become a target rich environment.

[1] Ben Chapman. New York City Crime Falls as Coronavirus Takes Hold. The Wall Street Journal published March 23, 2020.