'Creed III' Will Knock Out Any Competition in the Ring - Ticket Sales Tracking (2/27-3/2)
Hi,
I've been tracking ticket sales for movies recently at my two local NJ AMCs that do fairly well.
Last week,?Cocaine Bear?was rampant and snorted up a higher than expected prediction. Based on the numbers, we were about on par with Thursday at?$2.19mil,?but severely underestimated Friday with?$4.36 mil?for a Thurs+Fri total of?$6.55 mil.?While I was optimistic in our Friday number, the actual day of sales sky-rocketed with increases close to 300%. Love to see breakout stories like these, even if they're only at a mid-budget range.
Coming into the ring this weekend is Michael B. Jordan to not only star again, but direct this time in?Creed III.?Following two successful entries, Creed III has to fight off the worries of if it can succeed in a non-holiday window as well as the lack of Rocky himself, Sylvester Stallone. What this new entry does have going for it is an actor who is hot in the market, Jonathan Majors. Let's just hope this outing for Majors is better than his one from two weeks ago. As a comparison,?Nope?seems to be the most applicable as both titles have a fan-base, but are also prone to heavy walk-up sales. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.
Starting off the weekend, Thursday is coming out strong. With really strong day to day sales at both locations that grew throughout the week, it looks like good word of mouth and anticipation continued to build for Apollo's kid. Using Nope as a comp, Creed III is looking at a raw Thursday of?$4.13 mil. Things to note:?This does not include an estimated?$1.75 mil?early access shows from Wednesday that will be added in to the total. In this still uneasy marketplace where anything that isn't horror or a CGI-fest seems to be at risk for the box office, seeing these numbers is extremely relieving. What is also encouraging to see are these healthy theater capacities. Currently, Creed III has theater capacities of M:?13.48%?and EH:?23.84%. Not only are these capacities strong, but they are particularly stellar for a non-holiday, non-summer Thursday. The demand is there with no sign of front-loadedness. Even compared to Nope, Creed III is following right in line. In its summer Thursday, Nope had capacities of M:?16.93%?and EH:?21.21%. Just goes to show that a positive brand can still bring out the audience, no matter the time of year.
If Thursday was a sign for something good, Friday is looking like a sign for something great. Like Thursday, the Friday sales grew in sales day by day which is encouraging for a title that already has such anticipation. Right now, Creed III's raw Friday is looking at?$20.3 mil?compared to Nope. What a knock-out! Since Creed III is releasing in the non-summer season, it makes sense that this Friday is able to grow significantly more from Thursday, unlike Nope. What is even more encouraging is the theater capacities, which are stronger than Nope in both locations. Currently, Creed III's theater capacities are at M:?13.29%?and EH:?21.51%.?At this point, Nope had capacities of M:?11.31%?and EH:?12.29%.?My only concern is that these capacities are so strong, that there is not as much room for growth as there was for Nope, which can ultimately bring down Friday's number. Nevertheless, Creed III is all set for a breakout number.
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Overall, this will bring Creed III to an Wed+Th+F opening of?$26.18M. If this is true, then congratulations to all involved. Looks like when you treat audiences with respect and give them what they want, you get good results. Could this data lead to a higher than expected Friday? Probably. Even so, that result will still lead to a result studios only dream about. If this current number holds though, the weekend is looking at around?$72M. Maybe these estimates are getting out of hand. Is this breakout from the good reviews, from Jonathan Majors, or is it simply from the return of a great franchise? Whatever it is, Michael B. Jordan will be crushing this weekend.
I have taken some suggestions to help make this post better. Please comment if you have anymore!
TL;DR:
Wednesday:?$1.75
Thursday:?$4.13M
Friday:?$20.3M -?expect lower
Opening Day:?$26.18M
Video Journalist
2 å¹´I'll be contributing to the Creed box office later today... Overall, the theatrical line-up in March is looking a lot stronger than what it has been in February. This month has a hot slate of halloween/slasher themed films that I'm convinced are sure to bring eyeballs to the theater. Say what you will, but by the end of the month we're all going to be convinced that Halloween, in March, is a thing.