Creating Hope .. When The Going Gets Tough.. The Tough Get Going
Starting off this week on two wheels and the amazing effort being undertaken by the Cycle4Caroline Charity ride from Blair Castle to the Savoy in some very challenging weather conditions, a total of 1100kms . The ride is being done in memory of Caroline March who was paralysed in a fall in 2022 and died this year. What Piggy March, Ian Stark, Brett Bullimore (ex colleague ) and others in the squad are doing is heroic, and I know a number of them. The ride is being done for two charities British Eventing Support Trust and Spinal Research and unsurprisingly the amount raised is escalating quickly. It was coincidence that the route chosen passed by my road end, on the way to the Scotland England border. Charitable donations are now up to ￡125,000 and the journey is only half done, and rising fast.
Creating Hope
The timing of the Cycle4Caroline ride coincided with a presentation I had earlier in the week relating to Mental Health and Suicide Safer Communities from NHS Borders, and a key area for support.
Poverty is also on the local agenda, which brings in Fuel Poverty and back to a topic of major interest --Retrofit..
And Weather Resilience .. from impacts that are outwith the normal, and we do get snow in winter here ..
The aim should be to bring out Hopes for 2025 rather than Fears and to be able to sleep well at night...
Look for a positive Impact ---Be Innovative - Be Collaborative (and Measure the Impact properly)
This from Kingfisher in their recent trading statement I suspect sets the tone for others in the near term "Looking towards next year, recent political and macroeconomic developments have layered incremental uncertainty onto the near-term outlook in our markets.?
A Broader Global Agenda---Addressing Conflict and also Climate in 2025
Russia -Ukraine raising the stakes The missiles are now going further and the Mid East Conflict --also continues with hopes for a ceasefire oscillating.
Elections --dramatic results in 2024.. What about 2025? Eyes on Europe for two I will be watching
German Election -set for 23rd February 2025. French Budget --vote of Confidence to be held in December - no further elections are permitted before June 2025 but could follow after that.
Delivery from those elected is also important,,,
Labour Government in the UK --Waiting for Growth or Waiting for Godot.
Hope reversed thus far as we end 2024 . There had been a lot of hope that a change would bring a welcome period of positive sentiment, and a feel good (or feel better ) as one enters 2025 in The UK. That simply hasnt happened and there seem to have be a number of unfortunate events. Having promised growth, the early months of the regime seem to have employed a number of reverse gears, and the run up to the budget and the policies introduced might actually bring a recession. Hiring certainly looks to have been impacted. Labour now (desperately) trying to rekindle the growth agenda, and making promises for no more tax rises this Parliament for UK Businesses.
Trump 2 and Tariffs..Trade .. Back to the Future
Trump 2 set to land on January 20th reawakening concerns of how collaborative Global Trade will be in 2025, or how deeply we will enter trade silos... Then there are the other elements of the the Second Term that have yet to emerge. Dusting off the University text book (again) and I have ordered the 10th edition. (rather than the second!!! )
Addressing Fuel Poverty --tackling the sources and "Breathe"
Retrofit and lower electricity prices are high on my lists to see action at local levels in 2025, for rural communities in particular. More innovation and more adoption of products like these.. https://www.indinature.co/indibreathe-wall-systems. which comes from local company IndiNature is exactly the innovation we need,
A fairer system of electricity pricing would also clearly be beneficial for consumers and Industry alike and I am in the Octopus Energy camp on this one.
Weather - Climate Impact in 2025 ..High on the agenda ..Floods (again)
Improved Flood defences.. And why not tackle the issue at source.. ? Natural Flood Management. Warnings come too late as the pace of run off gets quicker. This is not just a UK issue as we have already have seen in 2024, but Bert brought significant issues in England and Wales.
Sian Williams from Natural Resources Wales said on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast this morning that the government body would “absolutely” look into complaints that warnings came too late. “We will review what happened. We will review the lead up to that; the preparedness for the incident and what actually happened during the incident,” she says.
NRW monitors river levels and Williams said each of the initial flood alerts were issued on Saturday evening.“Was there something wasn't right with the trigger levels for the river? Did we miss it. Did we not issue it in time?,” she said.
Jack Lee has been the manager of the Rose & Crown pub in Malmesbury, north Wiltshire, for two years. Speaking to the BBC on last night, he said: "The rate and rise of the water today has been unheard of." The lights outside the pub have been tripping out, he said, adding: "I’ve been out and put planks out. We’re not underwater yet. It’s business as usual. There’s nothing more we can do."The council have put the protection they can in place, that’s all you can do."
The Met Office said it would conduct a full assessment of Bert Storm but said it was "well forecast" in advance with a number of warnings issued.
Natural Resources Wales said the government body would "absolutely" look into complaints about a lack of preparedness.
Environment Secretary Steve Reed said the government had committed ￡2.4bn to upgrade the UK's flood defences, which he described as "in their worst condition on record".
Whilst it is positive to see flood defences seeing investment, we also must be seeking more natural flood defences being introduced. The same debates are being held elsewhere. This is a priority area for action.
And then there is the disappointment of COP (again)
COP29 ..The US is holding hostage developing countries, and in the process putting the Baku talks at risk of breakdown." Mohamed Adow, Power Shift Africa
The COP presidency managed to get one agreement passed in the plenary before hitting overtime It was about Article 6 carbon markets - or about if countries can agree on a system where they could "buy" credits in nations that, for example, have lots of trees to store carbon. In return, the buyer could continue to emit some greenhouse gases. It could be a form of offsetting emissions. The deal means they've agreed on some rules for this process.
The bigger deal was finally agreed in overtime , although questions as to what is in the $300billion mentioned below , and still some doubts as to what counts as Climate Finance
$??.?? ???????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????????????: Nations agreed to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to help developing countries tackle climate change and transition to low-carbon economies.??
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$300 billion Grants and low-interest loans from developed nations.
$1 trillion: Expected from private investors and new funding mechanisms, like potential levies on fossil fuels and frequent flyer taxes (not yet finalised).
COP30 .. in Belem in the Heart of the Amazon looks another challenge and where will the US fit it, if at all?
So numerous challenges to address but..
"Always look on the Bright Side of Life" ... and give time to Create Hope for others..
Philip Kerr
Director
WesterHayes Impact Advisory