Crap DATA - Predict the future of the pandemic
Srinivasan Sankar
Chief Data and AI Officer Advisor | Founder | Mckinsey Alum | Tenured CDO | Board, Advisory, Consulting | Keynote Speaker | Panel Moderator | Innovator
In data management we always talk about "crappy DATA" meaning the veracity (quality / accuracy) of data not that good. Here it is "crap DATA" aka Wastewater DATA.
This is where Boston leads the way. Focusing on how waste water data can help mitigate the spread of disease, has turned into something bigger.?
When Coronavirus detected in Boston-area waste water reached ominous new highs, it clearly predicted the Omicron surge.
Boston wastewater through 11/9, long plateau that started in late July / early August. Seeing it in waste water, evidence of COVID-19 has been plummeting. That already seems to be reflected in moderating case numbers.
Boston wastewater through 12/2, post Thanksgiving bump and clear now off plateau, matching peak last winter.
On Dec. 29, the seven-day average of virus traces in the waste water in the southern sample of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority’s has more than quadrupled in 3 weeks. Levels of coronavirus detected in Boston-area waste water?have reached new highs, with seven-day averages that shatter previous record-breaking levels. No surprise here, familiar pattern that we’ve seen in SA and EU and everywhere Omicron hits, straight vertical.
Then on 1/6 something interesting starting to happen. Levels hit their peak (right on cue based on SA data) and expecting to see a steep drop.
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As of 1/19 that peak and steep drop is happening as expected, and right on schedule. This is great news and brings relief to Boston area healthcare system and healthcare workers.
This waste water data is powerful for a few reasons: For health officials, it confirms whether COVID spikes in the community are real, and not due to increased testing or other factors. Moreover, COVID levels in waste water are a leading indicator for new clinical cases, giving health officials a few days’ notice if they’ll see more sick patients showing symptoms. Last year, when the city of Cambridge, saw its waste water data (along with one other data set) go above a certain level, it moved school to virtual classes. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker looks at Biobot data on a daily basis and uses it as part of the intelligence that goes into making policy decisions at the state level. The detection of Omicron-associated mutations in community wastewater provides strong early evidence that the Omicron variant was likely present or more widely distributed in these communities than originally indicated by clinical testing alone.
There is also The National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) comprises 43 health departments funded by CDC to provide data on presence of and trends in SARS-CoV-2 infections that are independent of clinical testing. In addition to Boston, Massachusetts, Health departments in four states (California, Colorado, New York, and Texas) track SARS-CoV-2 variants by detecting variant-associated mutations in wastewater.
Sometimes you can feel an inflection point. Soon, we may start to witness a radical shift in how we think about pandemic. Such a shift would impact a core part of society, one that has been a lightning rod for the last two years. And it may set the stage for a new chapter in the pandemic.
“Imagine what we can learn, Imagine what we can prevent.”
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