CPI Index, Flour Mills Demands, Wheat Target, Tax on DAP Fertiliser, Revenue Collection, No Confidence Motion withdrawn, Army interference in politics

TOPLINE

• Roti prices jumped from Rs 15-18 in Jan 2022 to Rs 25-30 in Dec. Price of per litre milk in Jan was Rs 130-140 compared to Rs 190 in Dec last year while the Consumer Price Index based inflation increased to 24.5% on a year-on-year basis in December 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.8% in the previous month.
• Flour millers in KPK demanded the govt to lift the restriction on movement of wheat quota from Punjab province in order to prevent a flour crisis. Over 92.08% of the set target of wheat sowing in the country has been achieved for season 2022-23. Moreover, the Food Department Rawalpindi and district police foiled a wheat smuggling attempt and seized 160 bags of wheat during a raid.
• The government has constituted a committee to analyse a proposal of the domestic industry to impose GST on imported DAP fertiliser.
• The Asian Development Bank has approved a grant of $110 million under the PESP for 4 projects pertaining to long-term water supply in Rawalpindi city and its six adjacent union councils. Moreover, work on two hydropower projects in KPK has been suspended for several months due to the shifting of the Chinese engineers to Islamabad over the resurgence of militancy in the Malakand division.
• SRB has made a record revenue collection of Rs 17.6 billion in December 2022, depicting a growth of 24%.
• PML-N has withdrawn no-confidence motions submitted against Punjab Assembly Speaker Sibtain Khan and Deputy Speaker Wasiq Qayyum Abbasi.
• Former COAS General Bajwa said the army decided to stop interfering in politics from Feb 2021. But "there are over 40 interactions of the CoAS during these 21 months with foreign dignitaries in Pakistan and overseas that had no bearing on his role as the COAS”.
• Europe’s wholesale natural gas prices fell Monday to their lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine, moreover, stock markets edged higher while European bond yields dropped and the dollar remained firm in light trading on Monday.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Prices of Essential Items: Roti prices jumped from Rs 15-18 in Jan 2022 to Rs25-30 in Dec. Price of per litre milk in Jan was Rs 130-140 compared to Rs 190 in Dec last year. Govt assailed for not controlling rising inflation. [Dawn]
• Higher Wheat Quota: Flour millers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa demanded the government to lift the restriction on movement of wheat quota from Punjab province and increase the wheat quota in order to prevent a flour crisis. [BR] [ET]
• Wheat Sowing Target: Over 92.08% of the set target of wheat sowing in the country has been achieved for season 2022-23, to produce about 28.4 million tons of grains to meet domestic requirements and keep the strategic reserves. [DT]
• Smuggling Bid Foiled: The Food Department Rawalpindi and district police in an operation foiled a wheat smuggling attempt and seized 160 bags of wheat during a raid conducted on Monday. [The Nation] [ET] [PO]
• Cotton Market: The local cotton market on Monday remained steady and the trading volume remained very low. The rate of cotton in Sindh is in between Rs 15,500 to Rs 17,000 per maund. The rate of cotton in Punjab is in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 17,500 per maund. The rate of Phutti in Sindh is between Rs 5,000 to Rs 8,000 per 40 kg. The rate of Phutti in Punjab is between Rs 6,000 to Rs 9,000 per 40 kg. [BR]
• Pak Livestock Sector: Sindh has 27% share in the livestock sector of the federating units of Pakistan including the four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, said Livestock and Fisheries Department Director General Dr Nazir Hussain Kalhoro. [ET]
• Gold Prices: Gold prices were set to wrap up their best quarter since June 2020 on Friday on investor expectations the US Federal Reserve will slow its interest rate hikes after a fast-paced tightening cycle tempered bullion’s safe-haven rally this year. Gold prices on Monday shot up to all-time highs on the local market, traders said; Rs 3,300 to the new record levels of Rs 187200 per tola on the first day of the New Year with Rs 160494 per 10 grams, up by Rs 2829. [BR] [BR]
• JDW Sugar Mills Share Buyback Exercise: JDW Sugar Mills Ltd said on Monday it completed the buyback of two million shares for ultimate cancellation in less than two months of initiating the exercise. [Dawn] [Geo]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Imported DAP Fertiliser: The government has constituted a committee to analyse a proposal of the domestic industry to impose general sales tax (GST) or duty on imported DAP fertiliser. [BR]
• Fog Descends on Punjab: Different areas in Punjab experienced a heavy fog that forced the authorities to close many motorways. Poor visibility caused the closure of the Pindi Bhattian-Faisalabad motorway from Faizpur to Rajana, the Multan-Faisalabad motorway from Abdul Hakeem to Pindi Bhattian, and the Sukkur-Multan motorway at various inter-changes. The Lahore-Sialkot Motorway was also closed. [Dawn]
• Water Schemes: The Asian Development Bank has approved a grant of $110 million under the Punjab Intermediate Improvement Cities Project (PESP) for four projects pertaining to long-term water supply in Rawalpindi city and its six adjacent union councils. [ET]
• Shangla Hydropower: Work on two hydropower projects in KPK has been suspended for several months due to the shifting of the Chinese engineers to Islamabad over the resurgence of militancy in Malakand division last summer. [Dawn] [UP]
• Petroleum Levy on HSD: After maxing out on the legislated petroleum levy on petrol at 50 rupees per litre effective 1 November, the government raised the levy on high speed diesel (HSD) from 30 rupees per litre to 32.50 rupees per litre effective 1st January 2023. [BR]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• Revenue Collection: Sindh Revenue Board (SRB) has made a record revenue collection of Rs 17.6 billion in December 2022. According to the details, during the month of December 2022, the SRB collected Rs 17.6 billion as compared to Rs 14.2 billion revenue collection made in December 2021, depicting a growth of 24%. [BR]
• Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation increased to 24.5% on a year-on-year basis in December 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.8% in the previous month and 12.3% in December 2021, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). [BR]
• No-Confidence Motion: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has withdrawn no-confidence motions submitted against Punjab Assembly Speaker Sibtain Khan and Deputy Speaker Wasiq Qayyum Abbasi. [BR]
• Haqqani was Hired Against PTI Govt in US: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan continued his relentless criticism of Gen (retd) Qamar Javad Bajwa, saying on Monday that the former army chief was altogether a different person after getting extension to his tenure from the person he was before the extension. [ET]
• Modaraba Sector: In a bid to improve efficiency and compliance in the Modaraba sector, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has consolidated all statutory and regulatory requirements in one circular. [BR]
• SUP Joins Hands with GDA: The Sindh United Party (SUP), a major provincial political party, on Monday merged with the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), vowing to make a joint stand against “bad” governance in the province. [Dawn] [The News]
• NSC Vows to Eliminate Terrorism: Civil, military leadership issue ‘subtle warning’ to Afghan Taliban following Kabul’s reaction to Rana Sana’s ‘threat’ of cross-border action. Huddle backs road map for restoration of economic stability; provincial apex committees to be revived. Defence minister says Afghan soil is being used against Pakistan despite agreement. [Dawn] [RP] [The News] [ET]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• European Gas Prices: Europe’s wholesale natural gas prices fell Monday to their lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine, which had driven them to a record high last year. A mild winter has enabled countries to tap less gas from stocks that were built up in anticipation of cuts in supplies from Russia. [BR]
• European Bond Yields Dropped: Stock markets edged higher, European bond yields dropped and the dollar remained firm in light trading on Monday amid warnings from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) managing director that a third of the world will fall into recession in 2023. [ET] [Reuters] [Investing.com]
• Spain Sees Hottest Year on Record In 2022: Spain in 2022 experienced the hottest year since records began, the country's national weather service said on Monday, as global warming stokes temperatures around the world. [BR] [The News]
• Russia-Ukraine War: Russia has said that 63 of its troops were killed during a Ukrainian New Year’s Eve attack on a makeshift barracks in the partly-occupied Donetsk region. Several waves of Russian drones targeted critical infrastructure in Ukraine’s capital and surrounding areas, officials said. [BR] [ET] [Al Jazeera]
• Opinion: For Lula & the World, the Tough Job of Saving the Amazon Begins - “When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is sworn in as president of Brazil for an unprecedented third term on Sunday, one of his most pressing problems will be an Amazon at a dangerous tipping point. Safeguarding Brazil’s rainforests, as Mr. Lula pledged to do in his campaign, may well be the defining issue of his presidency. But he will face an uphill battle. Mr. Lula will need the world’s help to rein in illegal loggers, miners and land grabbers.” - By Heriberto Araujo [NYT]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Opinion: Smallholder Agri Development — Managing Risk - “In previous articles, I had pointed out that Pakistan has failed to build up its manufacturing sector, promote exports of high value goods and services, and move people out of agriculture. A consequence of this failure is that a very large proportion of the population is stuck in rural areas, cultivating small plots of land. These small farmers use poor technology, face inefficient input and output markets, and rely on high-cost informal credit markets.” - By Daud Khan [ET]
• State of Democracy in Pakistan: Former COAS General Bajwa said the army decided to stop interfering in politics from Feb 2021. But "there are over 40 interactions of the CoAS during these 21 months with foreign dignitaries in Pakistan and overseas that had no bearing on his role as the COAS." [PILDAT]