Covids Unintended Collateral Damage

Covid reared its ugly head onto the scene late in 2019 and early in 2020. I remembered hearing something about a virus in China and didn't make much of it. Then in early 2020 we heard about outbreaks that came to the west coast. We were assured that it was a small thing and would pass quickly. In early March I was on vacation in Florida and observed less people everywhere. Many precautions were being taken. Lucky for us we had rented a house and could still enjoy our time in the sun. As our vacation week went on we started to sense and hear more ominous warnings about the virus. As we hit midweek my son was heading back and we instructed him to load up on groceries just in case.

At the end of the week we went to the airport with a sudden sense of uneasiness. Our flight was 3/4 filled and with most people the dreaded sense that there was a big problem and it was now sinking in. We got home and 3 days later our governor shut down the state. We all adjusted to our new routine the four of us working out of our house. We all carved out our separate spaces, the dining room for me doing bank business, my wife on our 4 season porch doing her scientific business, our son in his bedroom working for the Red Sox and our daughter in her room trying to finish up her junior year in high school.

As time went on adjustments were made and conference calls and video chats became the order of the day. Zoom took off and most people were leveraging this platform to communicate with their workers. As time went on Covid got worse, legislation was passed and PPP loans demanded my time day into night. Fast forward and during two cycles of PPP I originated over 150 loans for about 10 million dollars of support for many small businesses in and around Brookline. I am very proud of the fact that none of my businesses I lent money to went under.

As time progressed a vaccine was developed with promising results. The belief that covid could be conquered was on the horizon. Many people who believed in science got vaccinated and many who didn't respect the science opted not to. Fast forward to the summer and fall of 2020 and things were looking up in the areas of high vaccination rates. Some unvaccinated areas dodged the bullet and was left relatively unscathed.

2020 moved into 2021 and a new delta variant hit the scene At first it appeared not to be an issue and the people who had been vaccinated were left unscathed. As time went on this variant morphed and went to areas of low vaccinations and has had devastating effects. 97% of those sickened badly were unvaccinated. Then all of a sudden we started to see some break out infection amongst the vaccinated with only mild symptoms for the most part.

Now that I have laid the groundwork for unintended collateral damage we can move forward. To date more deaths from covid has occurred then the number of deaths from the 1919 Spanish flu where there was no known vaccine. I am not here to argue for or against the vaccine ultimately the facts and stats speak for themselves. A number of months ago I imagined that the light was yet again shinning through the end of our covid nightmare. Sometime in the future this will occur.

A news clip came out today about the Federal reserves upcoming meeting this week. Jerome Powell fed chair has commented that we will take the path that covid is taking. Translated it says that the fed will make adjustments to their monetary policy based upon covids path. If covid subsides expect the fed to ease off of quantitative easing and start to increase the interest rates. If covid maintains its grip expect the opposite.

As a result of covid's grip collateral damage has occurred with businesses, supply chains and events in general. Right now there are 70 container ships waiting to get a berth and unload on the west coast many items planned for use now and during the holiday season. Many businesses are waiting for parts to finish production to ship product. Businesses are feeling the crunch of supply chain and employment shortages which in effect is causing a perfect storm of collateral damage. My advise to small businesses is to order early and in greater quantities as it appears this shortage will run well into 2022 based upon the non-availability of product and people to haul that product to their intended destinations.