COVID19 – a time machine to the future?

Three quotes stood out to me over the last week.

The first is from Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business:

“This is as real as if an asteroid had hit planet Earth and economic activity shut down”.

The second quote is from Dr Norman Swan who said on Australia’s ABC news:

“The problem is, once you put your foot on the brake you have no idea when you can take it off, and it might be as long as 18 months”.

The third is from Dr Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America:

“The Corona Virus, and its economic and social fallout, is a time machine to the future. Changes that many of us predicted would happen over decades are instead taking place in the span of weeks”.

Conversations with many people in executive leadership and on boards reinforced the picture that these quotes paint:

• We are all managing a threat of a completely new scale with lots of uncertainties in the NOW
• We don’t know how long the current situation will last and hence need to start thinking about what the NEXT phase of this might look like
• At the same time, many of us are starting to look BEYOND this – personally and in business – thinking about what our businesses, lives and societies might look like and what opportunities this moment might present

EYQ, EY’s global think tank, suggests three definitions for this framework:

• Solving the NOW by stabilising the current situation and maintaining continuity while managing the crisis
• Exploring the NEXT by responding to medium-term challenges and opportunities, largely from sector disruption
• Imaging the BEYOND by responding to transformative, long term challenges and opportunities from global and cross-sector megatrends.

Applying this framework, business leaders need to ask themselves a series of strategic questions at this point:

NOW - How might you manage through this crisis with purpose and humanity?

• How are you ensuring – with no regrets – the safety and wellbeing of your people, customers and society?
• How are your customers adapting to the crisis and how can you best position to serve and stay connected with them?
• What options are available to maximise working capital, cash flow and financial sustainability?
• While hoping for the best, how are you planning for the worst-case COVID-19 scenarios?

 NEXT - Are you setting strategy to get through or to transform through this crisis?

• In dealing with the NOW, how can you be sure that you are not short-changing innovation and business transformation?
• What ‘watchtowers’ have you set to trigger post-COVID transition and rapid ramp-up?
• What capital strategies are you pursuing to protect against further downturns or to take advantage of the current low cost of capital
• What is possible for you to do that maybe was not palatable before?
• What plans do you have in place if there is another shock/ongoing crisis over the next 12 months?

BEYOND - What will change forever and what will you change forever as a result of this crisis?

• What will change forever in your environment, and what might your market look like post COVID-19
• What disruptive opportunities might exist for your business out of this situation?
• How will you reshape your business and organisational DNA; what becomes the new normal?
• How will you change your approach to business resilience in the face of increasing uncertainty?
• How can you change the way you change, becoming more agile and even making this your last major transformation?

The risk is that business leaders are all consumed by the current crisis, hoping to go back to where we were and blaming COVID-19 for poor future performance. Those who are just dealing with the threat in the NOW might not survive the NEXT because competitors might have already taken the new ground. Those who are failing to look at the BEYOND, might find themselves with outdated business models, supply chains and workforces in a world that they barely recognise. This is the time to create new narratives and a new vision for the future, which might also require a review of an organisation’s purpose.

 What is happening now, is bigger than all of us – it is bigger than business, governments and individuals. With now more than one million people infected by the virus, it’s clear this is a global crisis which will shape the world for many years to come. It’s a test of our organisations’ purpose, our leadership and our own personal motivations. Are you using the time machine to the future?