COVID19 - Now through Delta a common cold?

Through our discussions with the Dutch Government about our Covid19 hospitalship I suspected that our health was never the main focus for them. Would shortage of healthcare and IC beds in Holland really have been an issue then our proposal would have been taken a lot more seriously. People who know me will agree that I don't put unrealistic or dreamlike proposals to government or any other client for that matter. With that realisation I have kept a close interest into the development of the pandemic and have since read as a minimum over 200 scientific peer reviewed publications and printed the most important ones just in case someone decides to remove them "for our own good". I am writing this on a personal title but rest assured I am only quoting science and government releases statistics. The only conclusion I (and you) can draw at the end of this article is that the Covid virus has mutated into a Common Cold virus.

First: John Ioannidis, the worlds leading Meta-analyst. His paper about Meta-analysis from 2005 is the most downloaded scientific paper from the Public Library of Science. The man is a legend and his capabilities are simply beyond doubt. He wrote this in his landmark paper of February 2021 in which he also set the global IFR for Covid at 0,15%. Yes indeed... similar to the flu (Linkedin for sure will now ban me). He even predicts an IFR lower than 0,1% during 2021:

With that in mind we need to look at the most recent technical briefing of Public Health England (PHE) of 11 June last with regards to the development of the Delta:

This is the link but I will show some slides for easier reading: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf

The Delta variant is the predominant variant in the UK (and India). The rest of the world will hopefully follow soon. Let me explain:

The British/Kent variant (Alpha) had a Case Fatality Rate of 1,9% whereas Delta has a CFR of 0,1%, this means that statistically Delta is 95% less lethal than Alpha. You will note "only" 42 deaths since 1 February in the next table. PHE explain as follows:

The cases you see here are cases where the PCR test was positive and the sample was then sequenced in the lab to determine the mutant version.

Here is what I would call the "legendary" Table 5:

Delta: 86,5% prevalent version, 50% fewer emergency visits, 60% fewer hospitalisation, 95% fewer deaths. Unbelievable numbers and even more unbelievable that the UK government used these stats to extend the lockdown for our English friends.

There is one more remarkable table. Table 6. This shows that double vaccinated have a CFR of 0,67% against 0,11% for unvaccinated patients and 0,12% overall. Still nothing to worry about considering the extremely low absolute numbers.

Finally I had a little "Go" at the estimated IFR. I would like to mention that I am not a statistic specialist so this is only one person's (educated) guess. Delta is dominant since end April but the stats start 1 February. Since February the UK had 750.000 cases but Delta became the dominant strain since end April. From 1 May there were 165.000 cases. 42 deaths attributed solely to Covid resulting in an IFR of 0,02%. The IFR of a seasonal flu is 0,1-0,15%

With that in mind I would like to close with this interesting paper published by the BBC in September 2020. I quote:

"Secondly, certain virus strains, like the types of Covid-19 – of which there are already at least six – might amass enough mutations that are harmful to themselves so that they disappear altogether. In India, there’s already evidence that this could be happening naturally. The virus is mutating at a staggering pace, and it’s been suggested that it might be heading for an evolutionary cliff all on its own."

India is where the Delta variant originates...

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-why-some-deadly-viruses-vanish-and-go-extinct

I am hopeful we may actually get rid of this bastard!

PS: to LINKEDIN - this article does not contain any conspiracies, it quotes official government statistics and quotes from a peer reviewed paper written by the highest authority in his field. This article is open for discussion.