COVID19 - The all time disruptor

A Black Swan Event

The COVID19 that is sweeping across the world is " the black swan event" ever causing disruption across all levels of society. The term Black Swan originates from the (Western) belief that all swans are white because these were the only ones accounted for. However, in 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia. This was an unexpected event in (scientific) history and profoundly changed zoology. Black swan events are seen to cause a disruption, but all disruptions are not negative but leads to positive changes in the global economy.

Scientific discoveries and inventions are black swan events for the better example internet Globally all are reviewing the devastating effect starting with human casualties, economic downturn, impact on environment, realignment of global politics, faith, religious beliefs etc. COVID19 is fought globally to contain its spread since, an invisible enemy with capability/reach beyond by any stretch of human imagination. Rebuilding post COVID19 is not an easy task as the impact cannot be measured in traditional methods and individuals, societies, nations need an out of the box approach. A black swan event needs black swan thinking to rise from the disruption in all sectors.

Force Majeure

COVID19 has created a force majeure condition which is in most contracts around the world. Force Majeure clause is a provision in a contract that excuses a party from not performing its contractual obligations that becomes impossible or impracticable, due to an event or effect that the parties could not have anticipated or controlled. In the past it may have been selectively enforced since the non-execution of a contract was very rare, such conditions happened only in specific locations. The COVID19 is a pandemic and nobody can predict the depth of the economic impact it will cause to individual organizations. Every day we read sector specific industries listing out their losses.

The pandemic has not spared anybody, all are under the debilitating havoc the virus has created globally. Human misery is beyond measure and needs no special description or discussion. There is no single humanly devised solution that can address the entire world since business is trans-border and not location specific. Governments and business leaders grappling each passing day the economic impact with no immediate slowing down of the viral impact, are unable to come up with a solution of the debts and payments across the globe. A debt cancellation to start from Ground Zero again!!

UBER model post COVID 19

Traditional work models have already undergone a change in this millennium (Uber taxis). New businesses have adopted work from home format for majority of the staff. Covid19 has accelerated the work from home concept to more organizations, many are getting used to the concept and have adjusted to the new reality. What next for organizations already in the Work from Home mode?

The reduced availability of work due to disruption of established work patterns, cost reduction will be uppermost in the strategy for survival and growth. Uberisation of work will become common. People possessing specific skill sets will offer their services on a platform- there are some sectors already in this model and aggregators are advertising these services on their platforms. Technology companies now employing thousands of employees on their payrolls, will soon start looking for people with specific skill sets to hire for a specific number of work hours for delivery of a project without having them on their payroll. The smart worker who takes up the challenge of being a UBER style worker will survive, hierarchies and titles will not matter anymore, only possessing the right skills and flexibility will improve your earning potential.

Way of Working

The arrival and spread of the COVID19 virus have changed the way of working across the world. The number of people working remote (work from home) has increased in India. The model of engaging people in the IT related industry was to house people in huge office complexes with some of them housing tens of thousands and with a whole support system for transport, food and facility management. These office complexes were literally a beehive - there was a buzz all around - but today they are silent. All those who were housed in these complexes to carry out the contracts are at home doing the same activity. The pressure of crowds post COVID19 will reduce Digitisation and industry 4.0 is the watchword the past decade and COVID19 is fast tracking digitisation, much faster than expected. Organizations post COVID19 will reconsider bringing large number of people to one location and put them to work, instead the work from home concept will continue in many places. The costs will come down and the necessity of constructing huge complexes will be reconsidered if work at home and remote working practices increase. COVID19 will be a marker in history and newer business models which are cost effective will develop, brace up for it.

The shift imposed by the current changes towards working remotely raises the issue of whether there is an actual need for a physical work space, the nature of employee relationships, how HR policies will adapt to this sea change whilst ensuring employees' productivity and happiness. And finally, the acceptance of events and seminars going digital. In the long-term, working remotely may become an integral part of business models post-COVID19, with entities maintaining a remote working structure, except for meetings that must be held face-to-face. Large events, seminars and workshops will go digital, with virtual and augmented reality used to create 'real-life' inclusive experiences. With automation increasing rapidly, employees will need to diversify their skills or use their existing skills for other jobs.

Corona - Change and Consequences

The COVID19 has brought an important aspect of human behaviour - fear of the consequences of exposure to the virus, therefore follow the instructions. Safety practitioners have always faced the challenge of changing human behaviour, which unfortunately was difficult since the consequences of exposure or engaging in activities in an unsafe manner were ignored hence willing to take the chance.

COVID19 hopefully will bring in more discipline in the long term and Safety practitioners should use this as an example to remind audiences of how discipline was practised when the consequences of exposure were assimilated as real. Governments have enforced lock-downs and the response is excellent. COVID19 has impacted human behaviour for the better in the long term.