New Covid virus, Ebola and more for 2021

Why is this new variant of the virus causing concern?

Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:

• It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus
• It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important
• Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells

All of these come together to build a case for a virus that can spread more easily.

However, Scientists do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently.

The new mutated virus will hit Eastern Canadian provinces first, Ottawa, Toronto, New York, mississauga -ontario, westerns U.S. South Africa, Specifically East and south toronto, and it is more possibly already in part of Europe like belgium,France , austria now.

But already the justification for tier four restrictions is in part to reduce the spread of the variant.

"Laboratory experiments are required, but do you want to wait weeks or months [to see the results and take action to limit the spread]? Probably not in these circumstances," Prof Nick Loman, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, told me.

The pandemic’s course next year will depend greatly on the arrival of a vaccine, and on how long the immune system stays protective after vaccination or recovery from infection, and in a great deal in my opinion on the mutation speed of this virus.

No pathogen on Earth is being more closely monitored than the coronavirus Scientists have been regularly collecting and genetically sequencing samples of the virus to track how it's changing. Over time, that monitoring has revealed, one version became more prevalent than the rest: a strain with the mutation dubbed D614G.

 Many vaccines provide protection for decades such as those against measles or polio, whereas others, including whooping cough and influenza, wear off over time. Likewise, some viral infections prompt lasting immunity, others a more transient response. “The total incidence of SARS-CoV-2 through 2025 will depend crucially on this duration of immunity. The worse of other viruses yet to come like EBOLA virus will be coming back with revenge in Africa, so the world should put an eye on that as soon as possible , trust me it will be sad story when it hit again.

The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead, until now and they could be 2 million dead by Christmas. 18 million Americans are infected and killed nearly 320,000 to this date .This will go to at least 28 millions infected by the summer and close to half million dead .

Scenarios such as this one imagine how the COVID-19 pandemic might play out. Around the world, epidemiologists are constructing short- and long-term projections as a way to prepare for, and potentially mitigate, the spread and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Although their forecasts and timelines vary, modelers agree on two things: COVID-19 is here to stay.

 The future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, whether seasonality affects its spread, and perhaps most importantly the choices made by governments and individuals. “A lot of places are unlocking, and a lot of places aren’t. As a person with a public health degree I know this virus will mutate and it already has in the UK.

 This virus is smarter than humans, he will adapt and change and mutate to different strains. He might invade different animals and then come back to humans with different protein coating.

 “The future will very much depend on how much social mixing resumes, and what kind of prevention we do,” one thing for sure we will still have to wear masks and work with caution in 2021. Many people will refuse to take the vaccine and many others will wait for the vaccine until September 2021 and between that time many will die.

If immunity to the virus lasts less than a year, for example, similar to other human coronaviruses in circulation, there could be annual surges in COVID-19 infections through to 2021 to about July 2024.and maybe beyond.

Millions of minks were infected and killed.

The pandemic is not playing out in the same way from place to place. Countries such as China, New Zealand and Rwanda have reached a low level of cases after lockdowns of varying lengths , and are easing restrictions while watching for flare-ups. Elsewhere, such as in the United States and Brazil, cases are rising fast after governments lifted lockdowns quickly or never activated them nationwide.

But there is hopeful news as lockdowns ease. Early evidence suggests that personal behavioral changes, such as hand-washing and wearing masks, are persisting beyond strict lockdown, helping to stem the tide of infections. The worst thing is to see many other people with conspiracy theories refusing to believe in covid-19 and do not follow law and order, do not wear masks and gather in parties and spread the new mutant virus farther and here we go all over again .

Millions of mink and other animal were killed after got infected.

Changing our behaviors can make a significant difference in disease transmission, and this is not just words, it is the science.

Infectious-disease modeler Jorge Velasco-Hernandez at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Juriquilla and colleagues also examined the trade-off between lockdowns and personal protection. They found that if 70% of Mexico’s population committed to personal measures such as hand washing and mask-wearing following voluntary lockdowns that began in late March, then the country’s outbreak would decline after peaking in late May or early June.

 However, the government lifted lockdown measures on 1 June and, rather than falling, the high number of weekly COVID-19 deaths increased. Velasco-Hernandez’s team thinks that two public holidays acted as super spreading events, causing high infection rates right before the government lifted restrictions. I have a feeling that those people who do not listen to sound advice will be the super spreaders to the new mutant virus here in Canada, the U.S and Europe.

But exactly how much contact tracing and isolation is required to contain an outbreak effectively? An analysis by the Centre for the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group at the LSHTM simulated fresh outbreaks of varying contagiousness, starting from 5, 20 or 40 introduced cases. The team concluded that contact tracing must be rapid and extensive tracing 80% of contacts within a few days to control an outbreak.

The group is now assessing the effectiveness of digital contact tracing and how long it’s feasible to keep exposed individuals in quarantine, says co-author Eggo. “Finding the balance between what actually is a strategy that people will tolerate, and what strategy will contain an outbreak, is really important.”

Tracing 80% of contacts could be near-impossible to achieve in regions still grappling with thousands of new infections a week and worse, even the highest case counts are likely to be an underestimate. To end the pandemic, the virus must either be eliminated worldwide which most scientists agree is near-impossible because of how widespread it has become or people must build up sufficient immunity through infections or a vaccine. It is estimated that 55–80% of a population must be immune for this to happen, depending on the country.

For now, mitigation efforts, such as social distancing, need to continue for as long as possible to avert a third major outbreak as we are already in the second wave,

In addition, in colder weather people are more likely to stay indoors, where virus transmission through droplets is a bigger risk. We know that that seasonal variation is likely to affect the virus’s spread and might make containment in the Northern Hemisphere this winter more difficult. Covid loves cold anyway because of the fat in the crown that protects it to survive longer.

In 2021 to 2024 covid mutated virus outbreaks could arrive in waves every winter. The risk to adults who have already had COVID-19 could be reduced, as with flu, but it would depend on how rapidly immunity to this coronavirus wears off.

It remains unknown whether infection with other human coronaviruses can offer any protection against the virus in a cell-culture experiment involving SARS-CoV-2 and the closely related SARS-CoV, antibodies from one coronavirus could bind to the other coronavirus, but did not disable or neutralize it.

Unfortunately, early surveys suggest there is a long way to go. Estimates from antibody testing which reveals whether someone has been exposed to the virus and made antibodies against it indicate that only a small proportion of people have been infected, and disease modeling backs this up.

 A study of 11 European countries calculated an infection rate of 3–4% up to 4 Mid of May 2021, inferred from data on the ratio of infections to deaths, and how many deaths there had been. In the United States, where there have been lots of COVID-19 deaths, a survey of thousands of serum samples, coordinated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that antibody prevalence ranged from 1% to 6.9%, depending on the location.

If infections continue to rise rapidly without a vaccine or lasting immunity, “we will see regular, extensive circulation of the virus in that case, the virus would become endemic. Like the hepatitis carriers .

That would be really painful. And it is not unimaginable: malaria, a preventable and treatable disease, kills more than 400,000 people each year. These worst-case scenarios are happening in many countries with preventable diseases, causing huge losses of life already.

If the virus induces short-term immunity similar to two other human coronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, for which immunity lasts about 40 weeks then people, can become reinfected and there could be annual outbreaks.

Another possibility is that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent. In that case, even without a vaccine, it is possible that after a world-sweeping outbreak, the virus could burn itself out and disappear by 2021. However, if immunity is moderate, lasting about two years, then it might seem as if the virus has disappeared, but it could surge back as late as 2024. It is the revenge of Nature to balance itself .Human lived with so many infections and diseases throughout history, millions have died , millions will die and this earth with the greatest scientists will find ways to stop the mutation somehow.

Thank you for reading

Steve Ramsey, PhD. Public Health. To read more please visit my blog at www.moleopedia.com