The Covid Test

路遥知马力， 日久见人心

This Chinese proverb is an apt reflection on Covid-19. It translates in English to “as a long road tests the strength of a horse, so time reveals a person’s heart.”

Covid-19 is a test of strength and heart. It is a test of our endurance and our resilience. And it is a test of a country's economic resilience, emotional strength and social cohesion.

We should expect a long road 路遥, and long days 日久. Singapore reported its first COVID-19 cases in January, and we do not know how far the journey is and how long it will take us. The test has just begun, and we are already making early judgments and pronouncements of the crisis. Here are three observations:

1) A Testy Time

It's been a testy five months. Countries are playing the blame game, and even the World Health Organization (WHO) is not exempt. In Singapore, we have witnessed irritability and impatience characterised by hoarding and panic buying, the testing of relationships at home with schools and workplaces closed, and now struggle with no haircuts and bubble tea! This disruption to our daily lives is testing how we relate to one another, and whether we can put society above self.

2) To Test or Not to Test?

The case spikes in Singapore's migrant worker community raises important questions about testing. Should we have tested earlier? Were we blindsided? Were we too focused on our general population and forgot about migrant workers living in dense dormitories? What other blindspots are we missing? Is it a dichotomous choice to test or not to test? Testing aggressively means that we are testing those without symptoms. This cautionary tale also raises questions of countries and cities with dense populations and neighbourhoods like Hong Kong's walled city and caged homes, Brazil's favelas, Malaysia's migrant worker dormitories, and India's slums.

Remember that in February, Singapore had the second highest confirmed cases just behind China, primarily because it conducted rigorous testing. This was before the outbreak went global. Many countries thought that like SARS, COVID-19 would be contained in a few countries as it was in 2003. Many did not test, and some were confident they did not have the virus in their countries. No test, no worries?

But what does success against COVID-19 look like? Are we comparing apples to oranges when we compare across countries and regions? With case numbers a crude measure at best, should we focus instead on fatality and recovery rates?

3) A Test, Not a Race

Winning a battle does not win you a war. Flattery and plaudits are fickle. In February, Singapore could do little wrong. Harvard University, the WHO and the global press lauded Singapore's approach to COVID-19, even as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned on March 29 that Singapore was under "no illusions that we have won. We are just going in, and there is a long battle ahead".

By April, Singapore could do little right, with the highest number of cases in Southeast Asia, surpassing the likes of Indonesia, The Philippines and Malaysia, and "faring the worst" out of the Asian Tigers of Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan and South Korea.

But COVID-19 is a test, not a race.

It is a test of how strong we are economically. Singapore announced three budgets totalling SGD60 billion. It is providing cash handouts, suspending loan repayments and subsidising wages to preserve jobs. We are not borrowing against our balance sheet and burdening future generations. But do we have enough to last the journey?

It is a test of how resilient we are socially and how united we are as a people. Volunteers have stepped up to supplement govt efforts on the ground to support vulnerable families. Singaporeans are also pouring out support through Giving.sg and other platforms to help our migrant workers. At the same time, hundreds have flouted the circuit breaker rules and made it difficult for our safe distancing ambassadors to do their jobs.

When and if this is over, we will know how adept states are, how united society is and how resilient people are. At the end of this journey, we will know the true strength of the horse, and the heart of the person.

Until then, let's stay humble, alert and united.

(I am writing in my personal capacity, and as an International & Global Affairs Fellow (2008-10) at Harvard University's Robert & Renee Belfer's Centre for Science & International Affairs)