COVID Holidays: Ready, Set, GO!

10…9…8…7.. Hey wait a minute! It’s not New Year’s Eve. Yet, Kerry Washington, Reese Witherspoon and the entire socially-distanced and masked gang counted down to a Happy New Year on this year’s Emmy Awards Show. So it begins. We will not be having a traditional holiday season this year, thanks to COVID. Yet, it is more important than ever to celebrate with the people we love, whenever, wherever and however we can. We already have evidence-based tools to make our celebrations safer. Let’s use them!

Like many in the US, my family and friends live all over. We can’t always get together for holidays. Enter the Movable Feast Celebrations, created by my mom. The Moveable Feast says that anyone who can get together—at any time—should celebrate. The Movable Feast ensures that we can have Christmas in July and Thanksgiving in October or April and, of course, New Year’s Eve in September. The dates aren’t fixed, but the celebrations are.

There are many good reasons to celebrate when we can this year. New infections are already ticking up. There is no doubt that this next round will happen, since at least 90% of Americans are still susceptible to the virus. The next COVID peak will likely coincide exactly with the holiday season between November and January. That means that now could be a good time to get together—depending on what’s going on in your part of the world.

What IS going on near you?

The US has some pretty amazing tools to figure out if it’s safe to visit your mom or your brother and his family or friends you haven’t seen since the pandemic began. One of my favorite tools is a COVID Risk Levels Dashboard created by researchers at Harvard and Brown Universities. The Dashboard color coding may already be familiar. Green and Yellow are the lower risk levels. Orange and Red risk levels mean that the virus is already spreading exponentially—often by people who don’t know they’re infected. That’s why New York State uses Orange and Red risk levels to identify people who need to self-quarantine for 14 days when they arrive.  

The Dashboard shows the COVID risk level for every county in the US. You can compare new cases in Cook County with those in El Paso County with those in New York City. This information is updated pretty much daily, so you can see if local cases are going up or going down over time. If you’re thinking of traveling, you should definitely be keeping track.

Although cases are rising, COVID isn’t exploding in every county at the same time. This is what COVID risk levels by county looks like on September 30, 2020.

In terms of Movable Feast considerations, people from one Green risk county who visit people in another Green risk county are at lower risk of spreading the virus. The risk can be up to 10 times higher for those who travel between Yellow risk counties. It’s important to pay attention to local case numbers in the time before a visit is planned, and to reconsider travel if the numbers are going up quickly. People who live in Orange and Red risk counties are at quite high risk of transmitting COVID. Just because you live in an Orange or Red risk county today, doesn’t mean it will be that way forever. The same goes for Yellow and Green risk counties. With the Dashboard, you can watch the path of the virus in real time. We also have other tools to bring down the risk level.

Since the beginning of the COVID era, the best defense against getting infected—or, more frequently, unknowingly infecting others—is our own behavior. Mask-wearing, social distancing and hand hygiene have helped slow down the spread of this airborne virus. As the weather cools in the northern hemisphere and we head inside, we also have to avoid the 3 Cs: crowded places, close-contact settings and confined and enclosed places.

Moveable Feast logistics

Ironically, love and trust between people actually increases the risk of COVID transmission. It turns out that in Wuhan, China, where COVID was first identified, 75% of new infections were from family members or close friends. This is tricky stuff, with no easy answers. Here are some rules of thumb to consider:

1.      Party of 10. I’ve seen tons of numbers as to the number of people to include at a get together. There is no real science behind this, other than MORE PEOPLE = MORE RISK. To be real, I’ve chosen the number 10. It goes without saying that everyone will be wearing masks—the whole time.

2.      Bubbles do not count as 1 person. In Moveable Feast terms, every member of a bubble or pod counts as an individual. One bubble could consist of parents and two kids who all live together. That’s four people. You get six more. Even though people in bubbles don’t usually wear masks or socially distance at home, they should at larger social events that include people NOT in their bubble.

3.      Take it outside. There’s a reason that fire pits and patio heaters are flying off the shelves in preparation for the colder weather. One of my favorite gift ideas for the season is matching masks and gloves. I also have ‘the coat,’ which has survived an Alaskan winter. It is basically a walking sleeping bag that goes from nose to toes. Being outside together is the best and most recommended Movable Feast option.

4.      Ventilation is key. If the Moveable Feast is inside, open all of the windows and doors (and wear lots of sweaters). Hepa filters can help, but you need to know the details. Check out this guide to learn more.

5.      What about eating? If inside, alternate eating times. One bubble group of four can eat at the same time and the others each according to their own bubble status (e.g., 1 bubble of 3 and 3 individuals would eat in 4 turns). If 10 people are outside and socially distanced, then they can all eat at once as long as they maintain social distance. That's how powerful fresh air can be. Though to be on the even safer side, younger people should stay downwind from older people.

6.      If someone says ‘Don’t visit,’ don’t visit. That request will never be about you. It will be about them. That said, it’s also important to respect your own COVID prevention rules. Don’t be pressured to take risks simply because of a holiday occasion. It will only end in tears and possibly in new COVID infections.

For those of you who think that celebrations aren’t possible or can’t be joyful in the era of COVID, I recommend that you watch The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. This holiday season—and every Moveable Feast—is about us, about loving and sharing and appreciating whatever it is that we still have. I wish everyone safe and healthy holidays! Starting now.

Maureen Miller, PhD is a Columbia University trained infectious disease epidemiologist and medical anthropologist who has developed a COVID business reopening framework.