CoVID – 4Ever

Complex, Volatile, Indefinite & Disruptive is the world we'll forever live in.

This pandemic will pass at a speed which depends on how smart, diligent, and disciplined we are. However, it will likely hit the poorest and most vulnerable countries harder, where higher mortality rates and severe damages are expected due to the lack of adequate infrastructure/budgets/Leadership and the predominance of the informal sector.

Moreover, the expected growing budget deficits, negative social consequences, return to inflationary periods, growing inequality, and risks of hunger/abuse of children due to the learning disruption are concerning. (Unequal access to Information & Communications Technology 'ICT', hundreds of millions of children are used to receiving free lunch every school day and being in a safe school place).

However, the set of engaged actions will have long-term consequences and ultimately shape our future for the coming years. The new temporary surveillance and legal tools effected in some countries can remain forever, challenging our freedom and human rights. We wonder which system of authority will prevail when all is over (protectionist, democratic, authoritarian, technology-driven).

Finally, increasing exclusion and social suffering will further embed mistrust and disappointment. It will also revive the feelings of insecurity and the ashes of hate and exacerbate the conflict of classes and faiths.

Every State For Itself, and God For All

In an uncoordinated manner, countries took unprecedented decisions, approved provisions for a new category of emergency laws and adopted new policy tools, including fiscal stimulus and monetary measures. The world leaders rapidly adopted one expression in common, 'Flattening the Curve ', which has taken a new meaning. It used to mean changing the shape of the interest rates graph by raising short-term rates or lowering long-term ones.

So far, and sadly, the nations were mainly promoting their interests and are competing against each other's to acquire vital goods. We even observed such behaviour within states of the same Nation/Union.

Catching-Up on Lack of Leadership

In this time of intense difficulty, vulnerability, and disruption of any activity, our Leadership skills and collective capacity to respond will be intensely challenged.

Leadership is a journey, not a destination. We never arrive at the destination being the Leader. Instead, we aspire to be one. Our ongoing journey, which should not be navigated solo, is increasingly challenging. We will keep evolving in a?Complex, Volatile, Infinite & Disrupted?('CoVID') environment.

To face these challenges objectively, Leaders should act quickly and effectively. They should not merely limit the damage but should be ambitious and show their creativity and audacity. Similarly, they should understand that even a level of ambition similar to the 'Marshall Plan' will not be sustainable without Leadership.

The Emergency is to Bring the Genie back in the Bottle

Even though 'One Size Does Not Fit All', the most urgent priority is to minimise the loss of lives and health and to bring back swiftly life to 'normal' so that the economy restarts.

Dealing with crises can be achieved through an approach based on three key elements:

Besides, I am listing below a non-exhaustive high-level set of recommendations:

• Adhere to a substantial, credible, internationally coordinated plan for actions, and agree on momentary lifts of economic sanctions against particular countries;
• Assure the right to education and nutritious meals beyond schools (i.e. providing the disrupted learners with inclusive ICT solutions and healthy food);
• Ensure that the Critical Incident Management ('CIM') team has: (i) the right experienced individuals covering all aspects of the crisis and keep changing the team members as the crisis evolves; (ii) clearly defined goals, priorities and values; (iii) adequate processes for a clear iterative active problem solving (i.e. the military concept cycle of the OODA loop: Observe/Orient/Decide/Act) and meets consistently;
• 'Think Big/Act Quick' in two different time zones (T Present / T Return to Normal);
• Communicate honestly, adequately and regularly (internally & externally) to restore public confidence;
• Acknowledge the situation and have a balanced optimism (Stockdale Paradox).
• Keep monitoring the situation and adapting the resources and forecasts (funding, human capital, critical goods);
• Ensure that the support actions are fair and inclusive (including in the refugees' camps and the prisons);
• Be unbiased and avoid past poor experiences in the proposed rescue/stimulus plans (i.e. avoid bailouts authorising shares buy-backs/bonuses payments, emphasise on diversity/respect of the environment);
• Monitor the delinquency and the financial health of the State, banks and the markets continuously, and be ready if the crisis perdures and transforms into a financial and/or a social crisis.

Finally, ensure you create a psychologically safe environment, be calm, confident and take care of yourself since it is a marathon, not a sprint.

Plan to Evolve in a CoVID World

The weak job of the politicians in managing and preparing their nations for the future is making us question the Leadership skills of statesmen, lawmakers, and politicians.

Likewise, the supra-national organisations, which permitted stability and peacetime since World War II, are increasingly showing their limits. During crises, at best, they agree on nice-sounding phrases that do not mean commitments and do not fix the world.

Institutions should be designed to address current challenges efficiently and continuously meet future expectations. Mark Zuckerberg's appearance before the US Senate demonstrated that lawmakers of a Superpower do not understand even the basic features of digital tools. We wonder how they will prepare their nation adequately for the future.

Given the above, and because we are evolving in a 'CoVID' environment, we cannot count on the present system or these politicians to fix the world.

It is the right moment for authentic Leaders to step-up and inspire others to pursue their vision within the set parameters to the extent that it becomes a collective effort, a shared vision, and a universal success.

Finally, in a 'CoVID' environment where nothing similar has been previously tested, we need to believe in these authentic Leaders because they represent a massive reservoir of intelligence, creativity and adaptability, and they will, in real-time and under stress, keep searching for solutions while trusting their processes and regularly adjusting their approaches.

Resilience is the incarnation of adaptability, and as always, we need to keep "Playing to Win" and not "Playing not to Lose".

? Jan 2020 Nabil Maaloul