CoViD - 2019 shau mal an, Overcome We Shall

That these are unprecedented times is stating the obvious and fact that unprecedented times require unprecedented actions, thoughts and strategies is applicable now as well. While the CoViD-19 has exposed the speed and negativity of the consequences of living in interconnected interdependent world, it’s time we reflect on the causes, lessons and corrective actions due to this pandemic. Inspite of not being a medical expert or sociological analyst, here’s my laundry list prepared as an observer, student of humanity and a participant / contributor / beneficiary of technologically advanced, more prosperous than ever globalized world:

·      Slow reaction by China:

There could be arguments on the extent, but everybody is unanimous in criticizing China for delayed response, preceded first by denial than by false sense of prestige (pseudo nationalism) and then, & rightly so, by authoritarian leadership. It’s the last action that, inspite of attracting initial criticism, has made the China overcoming the menace so fast and so decisively. Congratulations Comrade Xi & the entire team. You personified that one has to be tough to be kind.

·       Invincibility Breached:

Nature is extremely democratic, and no one is above and beyond it’s reach. A lesson being learned brutally by “advanced & developed” world like United States, England, Korea. The disease is equalizer and call for equally stringent action across the geographies. I must, however, profusely compliment Korean & Singaporean leadership in generating confidence, spreading hope and acting decisively fast, the fact reflected in less than 1% fatalities in Korea & resounding ZERO death in Singapore. Kudos President Moon Jae-in & Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

·      Veil Busted:

Living in denial and beyond your means costs heavy as must have been learnt by Italy & Spain. Not only they brushed the threat (they paid less attention to Corona that they normally do to a fashion show or bull fight), they took it criminally casually becoming (Italy at least) a super-spreader. It’s no time to make fun but one wonders why Italians & Spanish are always consistent while spreading notoriety?

·      Might that Once Was:

Much to their anguish, Germany, France & England are realizing that might of their economy or past glory has little influence on the spread of disease. I am sure, and sincerely wish, that given the resources at their disposal, they will overcome this challenge with little damage to their own but might inflict the collateral damages at the adjacencies like Turkey, Eastern Europe & North Africa, even Middle East. Inspite of meagre might and knowledge, dare I say that experiment of developing herd immunity by Boris Johnson is more reckless than courageous. While it may give him a chance to stand in the league of Margaret Thatcher, he may actually end up being on the side of Winston Churchill & held (ir)responsible for thousands of casualties. May sense prevail over sensation. There would be more, and better, opportunities to be a hero in the future. Certainly Not Here & Not Now – CoViD is ruthless!

·      Why Me God?

My heart genuinely bleeds most for the Iran (including the neighbouring Iraq). Not so rich, already isolated and deprived society with too much dependence on the very basic needs is suffering so brutally. May God, and international community, help & support the nation(s) forgetting and forgiving any and all historic mishaps. They need all the assistance not only for the existential reasons of their own but also for the rest of the world, lest they become another uncontrolled, and uncontrollable super-spreader. Choice, if it ever existed, lies with us & not them.

·      Here Comes Uncle Sam:

With more than 3,000 cases and 57 confirmed fatalities, the spread in US is more alarming than is reflected in the numbers. While unprecedented measures like physically isolating (Trump believes Brexit means England is also out of Europe), declaring emergency and committing huge funds will sure be effective, the damage would be more collateral and cascading. Notwithstanding the (virtual) wall, the spread would be more certain, more deadly and wider in Latin America. The tremors of Wall Street shall be more brutal – and longer lasting – at Hang Seng, TOPIX, SSE, BSE & beyond. Given the dominating share of Dollar denominated transactions, currencies will tank and may put the other central bankers more perplexed on whether to address the internal challenges of economy and healthcare or maintain global balance and relevance. 

·      Resolute, Resilient & Reassuring – Hopefully Realistically:

At the risk of being accused of bias, I like the Indian response so far. Like his Singaporean counterpart, Prime Minister Modi has addressed the concerns head on very positively. His focus on the basics of maintaining hygiene, social distancing and staying confident is extremely refreshing. His approach for being prepared without panicking is worth emulating. The unprecedented crisis has also offered an opportunity to outshine and the Prime Minister has rightly, and responsibly taken the regional leadership by initiating the dialogue on SAARC cooperation. May the force be with him for this is one of the more vulnerable regions of the humanity and prevention & protection offer more viable solution than correction & curation. The situation has been well managed by India & Middle East so far and thank God for that. I like to compliment Middle Eastern Leadership more for inspite of, or rather may be due to, not so liberal leadership and Crude Oil Crisis, they have maintained their focus on containing the disease. Critical would, however, be next two weeks as the disease enters into second phase of spread. If SAARC & Middle East can control it at current level, or prevent it from moving into next phase, we would have won and can offer few SOPs for the rest of the world. Else, is a situation I dare not dream the nightmare.

I know that I have exceeded the span of attention (& entered into ADD) and therefore am limiting it to analysis of the current situation. In the next article in the series I would reflect on what could have been, and may still be, done differently to minimize the impact. I would sum up the series with Lessons Learnt – and Not Learnt (From this as well as pervious disasters) and the reasoning (if there exists any) thereof.

Till then, stay tunes, stay safe, take very good care of yourself and help those who are less fortunate to need it.

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