COVID-19in India: Risk Knowledge (Global, National and Local) should combine with customized lock-down strategy

Understanding a specific Hazard and associated Risk is the first step toward Risk Mitigation. Due to extremely contagious nature COVID-19 is a hazard with potential to impact societies in a large geography (multiple district, multiple states, and multiple nations) simultaneously /sequentially depending on the various factors including movement and migration of people.

India has accumulated enough data and urgently needs an “informed strategy” to conquer COVID-19 spread across the country. Under given circumstances - It may be necessary to deviate from National Disaster Management Act (2005) and other regulatory provisions for handling pandemics and epidemics. Following are few suggestions for National and State Government’s.

National Government:

1.      National Government should take responsibility to analyze all kinds of risk associated with COVID-19 and its impact.

2.      National Government should undertake an assessment of resources States may need for countering current impact and future threat from risk assessment and prediction made.

3.      National Government should inform States about current Imminent Risk from COVID-19 giving International, National and State specific forecasting.

4.      National Government’s COVID-19 risk information and prediction sent to State should accompany required resources State may need for taking mitigation measures.

5.      National Government should keep repeating activities, dynamically, at step.1, 2, 3 and 4 above to adjust risk information and resources requirements with the “changing operating picture”.

State Government:

1.      Reviews the risk information sent by the National Government and draw a COVID-19 mitigation strategy – with adequate flexibility.

2.      Review resources and inform National Government on “gaps” if any detected.

3.      Arrange deployment of mitigation resources quickly ensuring that there are no or minimal losses to precious inventories like vaccines / medicines and other equipment.

4.      Monitor current operating picture across the State.

5.      Undertake review of current operating picture, dynamically and repeat step 2 and 3 as may be necessary.

6.      Urgently provide cash dole to all below poverty line. The size of cash dole should commensurate with number of members in a household or a family if they are homeless.

7.      Plan “lock-downs” in such a way that there is no “shopping panic” among people.

8.      The basic consideration for lock-down or curfew relaxation should be that there is “no queue – no crowd” during relaxations. Huge crowd / gathering in the shopping area during lock down / curfew relaxation defeats protocol norms and would prove counterproductive. State needs to revise current lock-down relaxation strategy for ensuring that there are no crowds with a full understanding on the factors behind the crowd (i.e. crowd and queue are manifested when number of buyers is in huge number with lesser number of outlets / shops selling goods). Crowd will be inevitable if a large inhabited area is “lock-down and opened” at a given time common for all.  The only way to dilute crowd / mass gathering during lock-down relaxation would be opening smaller areas at a given time or “staggered opening on time scale”.  Shops selling basic amenities need no regulation and can be kept open all the time if inflow of buyers is well regulated and controlled.

9.      The State must review and exercise option where all shops (essential goods / kirana store etc.) can remain open all hours through the day. For households - a “sequential – staggered” curfew or lock-down relaxation should be planned mohalla / ward wise.

10.  There will be an ease in the mind of a common man when all shops are open. It would not be detrimental if local shops are allowed to take orders on phone and do home deliveries. Plans and strategies should facilitate people to work and earn their livelihood while keeping environment safe.