COVID-19: When will life be normal again?

When it ends is relatively simple: herd (group) immunity. Letting the virus to go around, “even controlled” is not an acceptable option as the few leaders who initially promoted that horrible approach found out (many lost lives). So, we have to wait for a vaccine until it is really over, which is estimated to take 12-18 months. The remaining question is how this crisis will end. This article discusses the scenarios, as a result of previous government policies, as well as the follow-up. Contact tracing and testing capacity will prove to be critical factors.

Social and economic life in countries with (less) successful lockdown

Successful implementations (countries returned to containment phase #2), such as China and South Korea (which was initially also hit hard) have a common recipe: Strict social distancing, contact tracing of infected persons that become visible during the lockdown, as well as massive testing. Social and economic life have been mostly restored in these countries; more will follow.

Flare-ups of infections are possible -as no system is perfect- and should be followed up with fine-tuned measures. An example is China that temporarily closed the border again when import caused infections to rise.

In countries with less than perfect implementations, such as the Netherlands, there is a lockdown but the borders are not closed and social distancing was not followed up good enough by the population (“anti-Corona parties being the extreme).

Although flattening the curve will occur, the contamination continues, albeit on a much smaller scale and after gradually removing restrictions, flare-ups will be more frequent and will require corrective action and thus more restrictions over a longer time. This causes much social unrest and economic damage.

The right way

How to do this with the least aggravation and economic damage is not rocket science; just look at the history of successful approaches. China is the extreme, but efficient example of lockdown with strict contact tracing and borders closed. South Korea is the high-tech example, also using massive testing and electronic contact tracing. Thailand had 1,5 million tourists (mostly from China) and staid in containment phase until March 20, when a “super spreader” who slipped through the mesh contaminated 50+ others. Within 6 days, the borders were closed and an intelligent lockdown was implemented. The new cases curve went down rapidly, also thanks to the positive response of the people.

In the Western world, we must stop privacy concerns, while our hospitals already start triage code black: deciding which patients die and who gets a chance to survive. This is a war-like situation and must be stopped.

In conclusion and in accordance with the centuries-old proverb “gentle surgeons make stinky wounds”, the short, but the very strict approach works best. Better late than never…

BiPAP Ventilator for home-use

What worries me tremendously is that in some countries 70+ year old patients do not even make it to the hospital. An extreme triage example. Recently I searched for alternatives to give these people, who often die at home because they cannot sufficiently breathe. I found a low-cost which I suspect could do the job. The regular end-user price is about 600 Euro, currently shamefully more than double - I am trying to get the price down - the manufacturer in China claims that materials, such as sensors, purchased from the USA have become astronomically expensive.

But as I am not a medical specialist I can not oversee whether indeed this BiPAP ventilator is suitable. I have seen an article online that it can be used for COVID-19 purposes, with the restriction that the patient needs to be in a private room as the aerosol output is contaminated. For private use, in old age homes and handicapped centers, this is usually possible.

Request for assistance in selecting the personal ventilator

As I could not get an answer from the (very busy) author of the article, I request all who read this and can judge the specifications (or know someone who can) to urgently contact me at my business email address: [email protected]

Once I am confident that this product suits the purpose I will update this here, together with the exact price at that time.  Therefore, please follow me on LinkedIn so you are updated.

Possible temperature & humidity slowdown on virus spreading           

In my earlier article (www.tinyurl.com/endcorona) I showed a connection between high absolute humidity (a combination of temperature and relative humidity and low infection spread, which is confirmed by other sources. I will not repeat the extensive details of this article, but concentrate on the practical effects on social and economic life when this theory proves to be correct:

A” Summer Break” would especially be a blessing for countries, which are lagging behind with increasing testing capacity and intensive care beds. I sincerely hope that the flattening of the curve will not be considered a victory.

Such a Summer Break would also be a great morale booster for the Western population, who oppose restrictions, especially with children staying at home.

If this weather connection proves not to be the case, a more prudent (and thus more restrictive) approach must be followed. But when the lockdown was successful, the economy and social life can function to an acceptable level.

Fall & Winter 2020

In function of the success of the lockdown, the virus will very likely be back in the Fall (similar to the flue). As there will very likely be no vaccine, social distancing will continue to be needed, as well as contact tracing and massive testing. One depends strongly on the others.

Special care needs to be taken with regards to the elderly (and vulnerable) persons. It would be a darn shame when the current mistake of giving care to people without proper protection materials (sorry to point to the crux of the matter: mismanagement) would not be resolved. 

Corona Exodus

A week before Thailand went into lockdown on March 26, I had developed this -currently still informal- non-profit program, which has a double focus: 

·      To offer an affordable long vacation in a safe haven in Thailand (a pleasant environment) for elderlies who are in reasonably good health, fit & willing to travel and not too attached to their familiar surroundings.

·      To provide income for the Thai hospitality industry, who suffer(ed) badly. In 2019, 39 million tourists vacationed in Thailand. In February the loss was 44% and in March it ended with just 500,000 stranded tourists.

In an ideal world, where all countries would implement a (short) lockdown with effective social distancing (not allowing social visits and children to play with others and no gatherings whatsoever), this program may not be needed. Unfortunately, the reality is that many countries took/take half measures.

To be effective for both purposes, this must be a large-scale program. The main focus will be starting in Fall when the virus comes back (maybe sooner when there is no virus summer-break). However, we prefer to do a smaller-scale version of the Corona Exodus program to gather the practical experience, needed to scale-up. This could start as early as a few weeks after approval by the Thai government AND Coronavirus tests are available before departure in participating countries. Inherent to the nature of this program, it will be important that the dates of both flight and stay are somewhat flexible.

Affordability is, of course, important and I am glad to report that we managed to keep the full-board price per day at just 22 Euro (29 Euro for single occupancy). Most Western retirees can easily afford this low price, which also includes one support person per 16 rooms and (after scaling-up) a helpdesk.

More information on Corona Exodus

This article will be updated from time to time on LinkedIn. Make sure that you allow notifications to be emailed (or SMS’d). Using additional social media is under consideration. For urgent (only please) questions, please send an email to [email protected]      Please note that IF and once the program becomes operational, we will open the website: www.CoronaExodus.org 

Disclaimer: This article was compiled from online data from sources deemed reliable, but the author cannot assume responsibility for the correctness of data.