A COVID-19 warning from the very near future, Bombshell analysis, and the world in lockdown

Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck, welcome to this World Economic Forum newsletter.

So much going on in the world right now. Let’s keep it simple.

Social distancing. No soap-dodging.

Actually, it’s on the advice of the World Health Organization, but keep Arthur happy.

If you like this newsletter – please share it with friends, family, and co-workers!

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1?? A Warning From the Future

These are Italians. 10 days ago. Watch.

? Stay up to speed on the coronavirus.

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2?? The Scientific Bombshell

The 16-page paper that shook governments in London and Washington. It spelled out the two choices for policymakers tackling the pandemic:

• Ride the wave. Scientists call this ‘Mitigation’: manage the epidemic.
• Lockdown. Stop transmission in its tracks. Scientists call this ‘Suppression.’

China, South Korea, Singapore and Europe were in lockdown. The United States and Great Britain were riding the wave. Scientists led by epidemiologist Neil Ferguson looked at the consequences of mitigation:

In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic ... the surge limits for [hospital] beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario ... even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.

Ferguson’s paper says suppression will take 18 months to achieve. But Nassim Nicholas Taleb et al think lockdowns can work much faster and more effectively:

Since lockdowns result in exponentially decreasing numbers of cases, a comparatively short amount of time can be sufficient to achieve pathogen extinction, after which relaxing restrictions can be done without resurgence.

? China is using drones to fight coronavirus.

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3?? Coronomics: Waging War on an Economic Depression

No surprise. Fight Club was wrong.

How do we stop a pandemic-induced great depression? One economic commentator says it’s time for governments to spend like wartime.

“The pandemic risks creating a depression ... In war, governments spend freely. Now, too, they must mobilise their resources to prevent a disaster. Think big. Act now. Together.”

[Financial Times]

News about economic relief programs on March 13 appear to have increased stock prices by lowering risk aversion and lift long-term growth expectations, but did little to improve expectations about short-term growth.

[SSRN]

It is time to start thinking about debt resolution and restructuring.

? This is one estimate of what the pandemic could cost the global economy.

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4?? Coronavirus Treatments?

Nearly 2,500 years ago a Greek doctor wrote about epidemics. Medics should keep two things in mind when it came to looking after patients – “do good or do no harm.”

For COVID-19 the search for effective treatments will see more failure than success at first, but studies build knowledge brick by brick.

Here’s the New England Journal of Medicine on one treatment that didn’t work:

• [T]here are many important takeaways from this study. The investigators appropriately prioritized speed, designing a trial that could rapidly produce an answer. What we’ve learned from their work can help inform the design of new trials. And it is clear that rapidly initiated, high-quality randomized clinical trials are possible in epidemic conditions, even in the trying circumstances that prevailed in Wuhan. The results of such trials, providing either convincing positive or convincing negative findings, will be central to clinical care as the dangerous coronavirus outbreak continues.

When treatments appear, they will be not be forwarded on social media posts, they’ll be shared in places like NEJM and other science journals, for people with the knowledge, background and training to evaluate, implement, and learn from them. Give health workers your support.

? This is how people are supporting one another through the crisis.

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5?? What Happens When the World Goes into Lockdown?

My World Economic Forum colleague Arnaud Bernaert explains:

? Stay up to speed on the coronavirus

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6?? Celebrities: Still Not Experts on Coronavirus

But some are pretty good with public health messages.

For an accessible explanation of why staying at home saves lives, here is a great explanation from Harry Stevens of the Washington Post.

? Here are tips to keep older relatives safe.

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7?? Corona Confectionery

Even COVID-19 can be candy-coated.

From a Swiss Schoggi maker.

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A big shout out to my daughter in London, battling a fever in self isolation.

Thoughts? Reactions? Suggestions?

Hope you’ve enjoyed this edition,

Adrian

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