Covid-19: Flattening of the Curve. Cases may rise sharply in US,Germany

I was watching CNN news this morning. New York city Governor, Mr. Andrew Cuomo was explaining the extreme measures city is taking to handle unprecedented situations caused by Covid-19. One corner of the TV screen, showed Covid-19 infected count in US as 18900+. In few minutes the numbers spiked to 21000+....a jump of 2000 cases....an OMG moment!!!

I got curious to check the current state of the Covid-19 virus spread. Being a number driven person I trust data more that news channels reporting case numbers. Quickly grabbed my laptop and went to Worldmeters webiste to see latest numbers and graphs for Covid19. I am sharing some graphs below to show how the virus is spreading in different countries.

Looking at the various country graphs, few things came forward and I want to share them. May be it will give people hope and aware us of the severity of this situation. I am using Logarithmic charts here as they provide better insight on percentage changes vs Linear ones.

• A flatter curve shows reduction in new infected case rate (reported daily)
• An sharp incline means increase in new infected case rate (reported daily)

Countries where the Curve has flattened.

I looked at graphs of 25 countries and found just 2 where the virus spread has flattened: China and South Korea. I am impressed by South Korea chart...the chart flattening started in 3 weeks (China took 2 + months).

Iran is the closet to get a flattening (But, I question numbers getting reported). You can see their numbers in the link above.

Countries showing hope towards flattening the curve

Spain and Italy. Both the countries are having a tough time controlling the spread. However, ray of hope is that the curve may be a 1/2 weeks away from flattening. This is hopeful and a positive indicator

Now to Countries whose graphs made me worry

4 countries here: United Kingdom, Germany , United States and Canada. I pray that the curve flattens as soon as possible. All these countries have been showing an increase in case reporting. For example, Germany reported following numbers on 5 consecutive days starting March 16: 1400, 2000 , 2900, 2900, 4500. See the rate of increase on day 5... This is a worrying sign.

United Kingdom, Germany

United States and Canada. The inclinations suggest both these countries will have more infected numbers getting reported in coming days.

The curve for US has most inclination among these 4 countries. This is not to make people panic, but to make everyone aware of the severity of this situation. My request to individuals who are thinking social isolation/distancing is not worth doing (specially Miami Spring breaker types)...just remember you will have a spring in 2021 as well... but your irresponsibility now we cause someone to lose their dear ones to this deadly virus. Please take it seriously and act responsibly.

I hope and pray that antivirals, vaccinations get approved by FDA faster and made available to control the spread. At present chloroquine seems to be closest (as per BBC, it has been there for a decade and used for malaria treatment). Praying for everyone here. Stay safe, isolated and focus on self hygiene. Together we can WIN this war against Covid-19.

Other Articles:

• https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/world/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries.html
• https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html