Covid-19 in the US - This is the week that matters
Jeff Friedel, MBA
Executive Coach and Consultant. Goals are good. Systems are better Be smart. Build systems. Create freedom.
Wishing everyone good health and spirits in the midst of this challenge. How we all move forward will hinge on the next ten days. We are now entering a critical stage in the current pandemic.
I am optimistic about improvement in the virus situation, however here in the US the next ten days are going to be critical. If you take a look at the trend of reported cases there has been a pretty consistent logarithmic increase. In other words a ten fold increase roughly every ten days. That means from today’s total of 105k cases in the US, by April 7 we ought to hit a million cases. (Keep in mind that ten days ago, on March 18th there were only 9,149 cases) And if 10% need intensive care beds that would be 100k in the ICU.
Now my son and I have this running argument um, discussion. He says “No way Dad. No way there will be a million cases in the US.“ Maybe not. Maybe we have hit the peak acceleration and we’ll begin to rapidly taper. Maybe there will only be 200,000.
My gut tells me that we will see some slowing in the total number of cases, but I think there are still plenty to come. I don’t think we “locked-down” quickly enough. And even if the growth in cases slows, the factual historical trend is still pretty hard to argue against. So maybe we get to a million in three weeks instead of ten days. Maybe we only get to 300,000 in three weeks. Whatever happens, the critical factor will be the ability of the healthcare system to accommodate the number of people requiring intensive care. Apparently when you get really sick with Covid-19, you get really sick. Heavy duty drugs and ventilator sick.
My wish is that we’ve got this. That the numbers don’t keep racing up. That the portable hospitals the national guard are setting up, and the Navy hospital ships, and the conversion of available space (e.g., Javits Center in NY) can treat everyone who needs it. This is a once in a lifetime event. Hopefully we will do what courageous men and women always do in time like these: be serious, engage smartly, innovate relentlessly, and never give up.
I think this website gives a pretty level headed look at the numbers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Here is my favorite chart from that website:
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4 年Well said Jeff!
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4 年Great question (and a fantastic call to action, Jeff)! Now is when we use our megaphones to ensure accurate information is magnified, misinformation is quashed, and not run toward our typical political corners. Now is when we reach out to ANYONE (business, large and small, NPOs, school districts, hospitals and urgent care facilities, local governments, etc) facing tough decisions and provide assistance. Now is the time we set the example by staying inside, practicing social distancing, following the guidelines wherever we are, and pushing toward safety any governmental organization we feel is not acting in the best interest of the safety of its constituents. Now is the time to become solutions.
I help leaders agree on what needs to change (and how). Author, "The Agility Advantage" and "Fearless Growth?". Member, Marshall Goldsmith's 100 Coaches.
4 年I am good at helping management teams make tough decisions in uncertain environments, especially when the team is divided on what to do. What’s yours, Jeff?