Covid-19 - Is UK the next Spain?

The world is almost in a standstill. At the time of writing more than 2 Billion people are in lockdown, that’s 25% of the world population! Without a vaccine or cure available, this has been the primary answer governments found to stop, or slow down, the Covid-19 pandemic.

The underlying question is when to impose a lockdown. Looking strictly at minimizing deaths caused by the pandemic, common sense would say the sooner the better. But, is it confirmed by data?

I’ve analysed data from 4 different countries – France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Italy and Spain are the countries with the highest number of casualties worldwide, according to official figures, France is the 3rd highest in Europe, while Portugal is making the case for an early lockdown policy.

The United Kingdom, on the other hand, has just announced a lockdown – can we anticipate the next weeks by looking at data from other countries?

By selecting European countries, I’m trying to minimize the impact of other variables (healthcare system, demographics, lifestyle, nutrition, …). Also, I trust the statistics these countries are publishing – reliable cannot be overstated. Still, there are differences, for example countries that are being affected later can develop stronger contingency plans.

The key variable that I propose to follow is a time series of the number of deaths per million inhabitants. I rather focus on the number of deaths than the number of cases as the latter is highly dependent on the testing policy, which is not the same among the different countries.

As highlighted by the chart above, Italy entered in lockdown with a much higher death rate than its European counterparts – we may also argue that others have learned from the Italian example, as “the boot” was the first European country to be heavily assaulted by the virus.

Portugal declared lockdown at a mortality rate more than 100 times lower than Italy.

 The UK was the last of these countries to declare a lockdown, with the second highest mortality rate at the time of the announcement.

What does the data tell us so far?

The graphic below shows how mortality rate has evolved in the different countries after lockdown.

In general terms the data validates the common sense – the sooner the better.

By establishing lockdown at a lower mortality rate than Italy and Spain, France and Portugal were able to keep a lower number of fatalities, but also to limit the growth factor.

Comparing Italy and Spain shows that in the initial week after the lockdown, Spain was able to keep a lower growth rate than Italy, but it then increased to about the same level, contradicting expectations. Other factors, like the reaction of the healthcare system or the actual behaviour of the population under lockdown may be factors skewing the death rate.

Downing Street just declared the lockdown, at a mortality rate very close to Spain when the same measure was declared by Madrid. Will it follow the same path? It's still early days for an accurate comparison. Definite conclusions can only be drawn once the daily number of deaths starts to consistently decrease, but he odds look to be against Her Majesty’s subjects.

Please remember that the lockdown is saving lives. Stay at home, come out only when you really need it and when you do, apply the advised protective measures. The stricter we do it, the faster our lives will be back to normal.