Canada Risk Assessment Window: COVID-19 Trend and Forecast for the next 9-months

The talk of going back to work has been heating up in many companies for the last three months prior to August 2021. While we are all hoping to get back on track to pre-pandemic time, it is prudent to observe first what will happen for the rest of the year before declaring any form of normalcy in the get-back-to the office order. So the timeframe from now to the First Quarter of 2022 is the acid test. It will show where we are in this COVID19 situation. It looks like many Canadians are still in the category of most at risk despite having been vaccinated because they can still get the virus, probably due to the unvaccinated. They’d probably like to see that there will be no resurgence of the pandemic in the coming winter months like what happened in the winter months of 2020 (see below).?The Go-back-to Office (GBO) rotation strategy, a couple of days a week can be a good start for companies wanting to test the water and bring some vestige of normalcy.

As an ordinary observer, I can say that there is a strong indication new COVID cases will continuously ramp up, while the country approaches the 2021 winter months, similar to the 2020 scenario. The month/year statistics comparison between 2020 and 2021, starting in August, begins to trace a similar trendline, with this year's stats on cases showing greater than last year by a substantial lot. This is true for all the Canadian provinces with big cities.?

The government and almost everyone I spoke with is talking about a Delta variant-driven fourth wave scenario and a Lambda-driven one after that! There is a reasonable probability that another couple of big spikes will occur before the end of the year and the onset of next year. We are not out of the woods yet.

I wonder, what kind of reprieve to this punishment do we foresee?

When will this calamity end? It's been more than a year and a half, and the whole world still doesn't know where this virus initially came from. Without knowing the origin of transfer and distribution, do we think the government and our health agencies can successfully clamp down on this virus and finally come up with the complete cure?

As early as August 2021, Doctors say, “We are in big trouble!” and the continuing trend up to this mid-September 2021 affirms their worst fear.

“While the COVID-19 vaccines are effective, there is still a small percentage of the population who are vaccinated that will still be infected with COVID-19 if they are exposed to the virus that causes it. This means that even with high vaccine effectiveness, a small percentage of the population who are vaccinated against COVID-19 will still get sick and some may be hospitalized or even die as a result of their illness. It is also possible that a person could be infected just before or just after vaccination and still get sick. It typically takes about two weeks for the body to build protection after vaccination, so a person could get sick if the vaccine has not had enough time to provide protection (Government Canada, 2021. https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/)." Some medical experts said that the best hope to finally quell the onslaught is herd immunity, next to getting everyone vaccinated, and of course, exercising caution. The good news is, vaccinated people resist the virus way better than the unvaccinated ones. The stats below don’t lie!

For more current information, click the following link >>> Canada’s Daily Epidemiology Update.

About the Author

Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of?PM Solution Pro, a Calgary?consulting,?product, and?training?services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training.

BOOKS AUTHORED BY RUFRAN FRAGO

1. Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective.ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7.Canada
2. Plan to Schedule, Schedule to Plan.ISBN 978-0-9947608-2-1.Canada
3. How to Create a Good Quality P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule.ISBN 978-0-9947608-1-4.Canada
4. Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (Traditional Method).ISBN 978-0-9947608-3-8.Canada
5. RISK, What are you? The Risk Management Poem: Children’s Book for all Professionals.ISBN 978-0-9947608-4-5 (Canada)