Covid-19: Thinking the unthinkable

Just as the events of 3/11 were shocking—if not statistically predictable—experts have long warned it was only a matter of time before a global pandemic such as Covid-19 struck. Now it has. The remaining question is the size of the economic and social destruction, something few wish to contemplate.

Even the object impermanent US President only recently woke up to the fact that minimally 100,000 to 240,000 US citizens will die in the coming weeks. That represents a minuscule .03% - .07% of the US population. Still, almost everyone discounts an even worse-case. Perhaps 1% or 2% of the population may succumb to the disease. Millions may die.

Over the past month the number of worldwide deaths rose from 3,000 to over 50,000. Deaths are doubling every seven days globally and every four days in the US, according to ourworldindata.org. The implications of exponential growth are hard for almost anyone but a mathematician to comprehend. Non-mathematicians—almost everyone I know—have difficulty fully appreciating the implications. Some continue to conduct their lives as if they were immune. In Japan I often hear people say there is no evidence the virus is spreading, as they go about their normal day.

Indeed, there is no clear evidence. A recent Icelandic study found that half of Covid-19 carriers show no symptoms. The virus passes from human to human through sustained close personal contact. Testing is not widely available in most advanced nations, including Japan, so carriers don't realize they are spreading the disease. Likewise, people going about their lives in a normal way don’t realize they are contracting the disease. Unknowingly, they then pass the disease on to loved ones.

To “flatten the curve” people need to practice social distancing and become “hand Nazis”, to quote Cornell Medical Center’s Dr. David Price. The term refers to a person who frequently washes their hands and never touches their face—the virus’s point of entry into the human body. If everybody on the planet did so, the small .03% - .07% population death rate is achievable. If they don't, the social and economic impact will be far greater than anyone can imagine.