A COVID-19 Tale of Two Continents

How do EMEA countries compare with the US in COVID-19-related business?

As many countries across Europe brace for COVID-19 resurgences which could cause further deaths, lockdowns and economic damage, many states in the USA appear to have much higher levels of COVID-19 infection, as measured by Active Cases per Capita (ACPC).  The graphic above illustrates the course of ACPC for select US States and EMEA countries, since the beginning of the pandemic.

Using ACPC allows us to compare the “concentration” of COVID-19 infection, independent of the size of a country, state or city. It complements use of infection numbers and the trend-line allows us to map COVID-19 progression, on an even playing field.

We should note that it’s difficult to reliably interpret data when testing rates are inconsistent.  A study in New York, for example, found that actual COVID-19 infection rates were 13 times higher than reporting indicated.

This in itself is a major risk for businesses.  Imagine if GDP, inflation or employment rates were mis-represented? How would businesses make informed, logical decisions in where to invest capital, deploy marketing spend and enhance selling resources?

Spain

There is no question that the growth rate of COVID-19 infections in Spain is alarming;  while infection rates are focussed upon the capital, Madrid, rates across the country appear to be rising. Shutdowns and exclusions appear inevitable, further damaging the economy and businesses.  And like past waves, deaths and long-term illness caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus will be weighed against economic and business impacts. Spaon's ACPC is currently 1.39%.

USA:  Arizona, Florida, Georgia

These states show some of the highest ACPC rates in the world, at 2.41%, 2.04% and 2.18% respectively; actual ACPC rates could be even higher due to relatively low rates of testing. Georgia appears to be progressing well in it’s attempts to suppress the virus. ACPC rates in these states eclipse the ACPC rates New York achieved at the height of its pandemic experience. Businesses need to be on high-alert for further outbreaks and shut-downs.

USA: Rhode Island, Maryland, Alabama and Virginia

While the populations of these states is smaller, ACPC rates suggest high pools of SARS-Cov-2 infections, which could act as reserviours which facilitate further infection. ACPC are 1.96%, 1.82%, 1.63% and 1.43% respectively.  Business risk is elevated in these states.

USA: New York

New York experienced tragic death rates earlier in the pandemic;  robust lockdown measures have seen ACPC rates decline steeply, but they are troublingly persistent.  There is a “long tail” in suppressing SARS-Cov-2 transmission. ACPC is currently 0.32%. Business risk remains higher when compared with global best-performers eg South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia, but its considerably lower than other parts of the US and EMEA.

Belgium

Belgium has maintained consistent suppression of COVID-19, but concerns are growing that infection rates will escalate.  ACPC is currently 0.65% and with winter months making social distancing more challenging and viral spread more likely, businesses may need to factor greater risk in Belgium.

Israel

Israel was a global stand-out in suppressing the first wave of COVID-19 infection, but as lockdown measures were eased, infection rates have risen dramatically. Cultural/religious factors need to be considered in Israel’s responses to suppress COVID-19 infections. Businesses in Israel will need to navigate growing risks associated with further lockdowns.

France

France’s first wave of COVID-19 appears quite mild when compared with the current rise in ACPC. At this stage it appears lockdowns can be limited to cities showing significant spread of the virus, at least reducing impacts on businesses.

India

While India does not appear in the chart above, it deserves special mention;  ACPC comparisons are slow to illustrate risk in highly populous countries. The rate of rises in SARS-Cov-2 infections is of great concern for Indian businesses and the Indian economy.

Conclusions

My training as a scientists and experience as a businessman teaches me to analyse data and assess risk; while opinions about COVID-19 and the SARS-Cov-2 virus which causes it vary widely, using filters of science and risk analysis, business risks in the US and EMEA, created by lockdowns, appear to be growing. Concerns exist that current risks will be exacerbated during the Northern Hemisphere winter as people spend more time indoors, making transmission more likely.

Buying Behaviour - Older Consumers

Businesses also face risk caused by changes in consumer sentiment and their impact on buyer behaviour. As more consumers are directly impacted by COVID-19, they become averse to risk. This applies particularly to the elderly.

Buying Behaviour - Younger Consumers

A growing body of evidence is suggesting the SARS-Cov-2 virus affects not just the respiratory system, but potentially every cell in the body. Early research also suggests the virus can cause Parkinson-like damage to the brain. As these risks emerge, and if substantiated, we may expect to see changes in buyer behaviour from younger consumers, as they become more concerned about potential impacts of COVID-19.

Vaccines and Anti-Vaxers

While we should be cautiously optimistic about development of vaccines, but their availability and efficacy remains unknown. We may witness a cascade of vaccines, each with different use-cases, efficacies and distributions. Any missteps in promotion of vaccines may increase resistance to vaccine usage, further complicating patterns of business risk.