COVID-19: Some Numbers & Predictions
1% or 1 of 100
On 12th July, over 3.3 million Americans were confirmed to have COVID-19. 1% of US citizens were confirmed to have the infection.
Brazil with 1.88 million confirmed cases is 7-10 days away from having 1% of its citizens infected with the virus
10% or 1 in 10 in the US
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Robert Redfield, estimates the number is a massive understarement. CDC acknowledges true coronavirus count is likely 10 times higher than official count . 10% of the US citizens may be infected already. NYT article suggest 60% of the people need to be infrected to achieve herd immunity. That's some way away...
0.1% or 1 in 1,000 in India
India will reach 1.4 million confirmed cases in July. 1 in 1,000 Indians will have been confirmed to be infected this month as per my forecasts before this month ends. Explains why we have a fresh spate of lockdowns in many cities of India. 0.1% is more impactful that some may think. A small housing society or apartnet complex in India with 200 flats/apartment, and with 5 people in each apartment, they would have 1,000 people. Every Indian now knows someone who has been infected with COVID19. The disease is no longer just a news report event, it is part of our lives.
Expect cases to double in August and India to have 0.2% or 1 in 500 confirmed by end August (or latest 1st week of September). Yes, numbers do not look good. And while we all pray for things to get better, my model does not indicate so. Nor the one for MIT. India might see 2.87 lakh Covid cases per day by February 2021, MIT study reveals
Link to my model with predictions on COVID19 confirmed cases and deaths
Its understated by 10x in the US, how much are India numbers understated by? I do not know, nor do I want to venture to speculate.
2.6% case fatality rate
India has amongst the lowest case fatality rate in the word at 2.6%. The CFR has been very impressive, and while I expressed some doubts in my artcile in ET Prime, I pray these are true and we Indians are less susceptible to this disease.
The stock markets appear to be discounting all the bad news due to COVID. Besides the enhanced balance sheet of FED at around USD 7 trillion, another factor is “Many feel that there is a growing sense among retail investors that since the fatality rate of Covid-19 is low, this suffering will be short-term and when the economy bounces back they may not get the opportunity to buy in the market at current levels.”
In closing thoughts, stay safe and be careful! We are not close to the end.
However, like the equity markets, look "forward in hope" and be optimistic!
Keep the faith!
